Alien Metals Share Discussion Threads

[2magpies] 10/11/2020 10:17

paddyfool

DSO

[paddyfool] 10/11/2020 09:47

The problem with the maths from the LSE article reposted here is the implementation costs to get to a point where you can sweat the asset over the term and begin to earn fro production. The amount of capital required to establish this mine will be huge. The time to establish production at an economic rate will be long. So someone with deep pockets and access to lots of capital will be the developer of this asset. Alien does not have either the cash or the capability to develop a mine, Its a discoverer of assets not a developer.

So assuming someone does indeed do the maths and the numbers are similar to that in the previous post then this asset will be bought, but for how much? The answer is nowhere near the life time value described above. It will be discounted over time and discounted for capital required and risk. Indeed a very small fraction of the overall value. Will it be significant in relationship to the current market capital? Probably. Is that outcome certain from here? The answer is no as further prospecting is underway and Alien will likely not be in a powerful position when coming to sell as it is not a cash rich firm.

[valuerebel] 10/11/2020 09:42

Sharegeorge. I'm enjoying not having to read 300 posts on the LSE daily. Gold and silver recovering from yesterday. Alien drifting but I sense there are buyers waiting sub 1.40 where it has proved difficult to add over the last few weeks.

[sharegeorge] 10/11/2020 08:37

LSE Share Chat down again! Looking forward to the prospects here. Bring on the news flow.

[l2e] 09/11/2020 22:35

Post on LSE from EWT98 and their own round up of project Hamerslwy iron ore
With a modest calculation ratio for those that may be interested:

Just a reminder of the potential here outside of silver projects in Hamersley Iron Ore (not that I think the silver bull market is over by any stretch – most likely a blip IMO and massive market overreaction).
I will use a conservative estimation, so as not to get too rampy on what this project could mean for the share price here.
The estimate for the volume of iron ore at these sites is between 74 and 245 million metric tonnes (according to 25th August RNS – “Maiden Exploration Targets Identified at Hamersley”).
The last RNS on Hamersley (29th October – “Drilling Targets Identified at Hamersley Projects”) confirmed “very high-grade DSO level iron ore in significant volume”.
To be conservative I will take the low estimate of 74 million.
Realistically a JV will be required to extract the iron ore, with Rio Tinto as good a candidate as any for this (with their own neighbouring iron ore operations in the Pilbara region). According to a 2016 article on mining.com, Rio Tinto were achieving an average cost of extraction of $14.30 per metric tonne, again to be conservative on this front we will increase this cost to $20.
Finally, the iron ore price has taken a recent fall, and is unlikely to fall further (more likely to increase) due to China’s high level of demand and industrial recovery. This currently sits at $116/metric tonne.
So taking all of this, and the dilution of the JV (assume similar to Donavon 2, leaving us with around 20%)…
74,000,000 tonnes x ($116 – $20) = $7.1 billion (to 1 D.P.)
$7.1 billion x 0.2 = $1.42 billion
$1.42 billion in GBP = (1,420,000,000 x 0.77) = £1,098,796,000
25/58 samples around the 62%Fe threshold mark = 43% of sample.
0.43 x £1,098,796,000 = £472,482,280
Even if the remaining 57% of the deposit was worth half this, that still adds circa £236,000,000 to this valuation.
Leaving a total value of around £708,000,000 (£708,000,000).
We currently own 51% of this project (remember the intent to obtain the remaining 49%), therefore,
0.51 x £708,000,000 = £361,080,000
Which is equal to a value per share of 361,080,000/3,170,000,000 = circa 11.4p per share.
The ambitious side of this estimation (245 million tonnes) is roughly 3.3 times the size of this value – do the math.

[drago] 09/11/2020 21:32

Weird how that vaccine has eliminated all the global debt . And no need to print any more trillions .
Yea we're saved .

At least copper doing well

[mostro] 09/11/2020 18:55

No thanks GG, I am holding, even adding, to the miners..

[ggtayleur] 09/11/2020 17:42

I think the market has almost forgotten the effect covid has already had on the economy. Yes we have the optimism of a vaccine. And I prey that this is the start of the world getting back to normal. But by no means is this glimmer of hope enough to stop the impact of the virus. Sell up Ur miners and buy some blue chips if you want but I can guarantee you in 9 months time PMs will be a where the money's at.

[mostro] 09/11/2020 15:47

Strange day indeed..
I have friends crowing about how much they are up today, ALL my stocks are down as they are all mining or Covid stocks, Oh well, lets see what tomo brings!!

[2magpies] 09/11/2020 14:32

Indiscrimiate selling in loads of stocks as peeps cashing in profits to pay for disaster on their 'covid' stocks!

Looks like the black swan arrived, and has a 'cob on' !!

[2magpies] 09/11/2020 13:12

covid vaccine will be very good for the global economy, which is bound to raise demand for Fe, Cu etc: which UFO is working on.

Well done, Bill, for diversifying, so astutely!

[mostro] 08/11/2020 08:53

So we have lots of silver, and fair amount of copper, silver is rising toward 26 and copper is moving up as China is being nasty to our chums in Oz!! What not to like here.... Big week ahead maybe??

[bscuit] 07/11/2020 16:57

Still got my ex-warrant @.015p shares, though cashed out the .008s which had been moved to my ISA @2.96. Happy days. Return was better than Novacyt in % terms.

[2magpies] 06/11/2020 14:03

ET says: earthlings, what kept you?

[capitalgains5] 06/11/2020 13:32

Easy money to be had here. Sit on your hands until end of year and watch! These day to day movements mean nothing. When the RNS drops we will see 5p IMO

[valuerebel] 06/11/2020 09:32

Think after the initial ramp to 3.1 then we bottomed out at 1.40 area..since then people just trading them, buying at 1.50 or lower and selling into spikes. It should lead to a stronger floor now above 1.60 as buying back becomes more difficult. A couple of RNS updates are due soon also.

[l2e] 06/11/2020 09:08

Been in these from Tuesday caught the 1.39. Looks better now
This is going to get very interesting in 2021

[valuerebel] 06/11/2020 09:05

sparrow9. If the system shows 1.70-1.75 and you managed to buy at 1.72( i.e closer to the bid than the offer) then it shows as a sell. If you bought at 1.74 it would should as a buy FYI. Happens all the time. Depends on what the MM are trying to do in that second.

[sparrow9] 06/11/2020 08:46

Just purchased considerable amount went through as a sell ? MM having fun

[juju44] 06/11/2020 08:32

Nope , I am in and watching

[mostro] 06/11/2020 08:29

Looks like 2magpies and I are the only ones going to be getting the sweeties here!!

[mostro] 05/11/2020 18:38

indeed 2magpies, hush hush here and add more on any drop in price!

[2magpies] 05/11/2020 08:31

Mostro

quiet, but rising, is good.

shhh.