Alfa Financial Software Share Discussion Threads

[nw99] 05/6/2018 10:22

The bounce is on

[togglebrush] 04/6/2018 16:24

FWIW By my Notes
Shares outstanding__300.00m
Free float___________80.50m
'
Assuming each deal on Friday and Today was a unique buy or sell, and divide by 2, you roughly get 1 in 10 of the Free Float changing hands. Which is quite a challenging movement for the company.
;
Source ADVFN
Volume Friday 3,670,128 Monday 12,402,006
Average volume _420,830 (period before 1st Jun)

[m1das_touch] 04/6/2018 13:53

w w w.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/198191/alfa-financial-still-in-the-wars-after-friday-s-profit-warning-198191.html

[trytotakeiteasy] 04/6/2018 13:44

mammyoko - have you got an article link for that?

[seball] 04/6/2018 13:39

Striking a note of optimism and suggesting the share price collapse presents a buying opportunity, Numis said: “We have seen this before with market-leading software companies, where a challenging backdrop (e.g. AVEVA in 2009 and 2015, Keywords in 2013, Temenos in 2012) provides a compelling long-term entry point.”

Good luck all

[seball] 04/6/2018 13:36

Numis Securities, keeping the faith and has a target price of 240p and, following the share price slide from 315p the day before the profit warning, it has moved to ‘buy’ from ‘add’.

[seball] 04/6/2018 13:31

Still all to play for here imo. Contracts Delayed not cancelled so I think drop is overdone here. Looking for an increase in share price from here over next few weeks above 200p.
We have been informed by one of our major customers that they have decided to delay their implementation project. We are satisfied that this decision is related to the customer's internal systems and we currently understand that the project is likely to be restarted in early 2019 when their underlying issues have been resolved.

"In addition to this, a potential new customer has significantly increased the geographical and functional scope of the project, and one of our larger existing customers seems likely to extend its decision point regarding the expansion of another major contract. Therefore, the potential implementation start dates for each of these could be later in 2018, or into 2019."

[mammyoko] 04/6/2018 13:24

Still 4x the valuation placed on the business by founding shareholders in May 2016 sale

[trytotakeiteasy] 04/6/2018 12:56

Berenberg price target cut of 72% is one of the most savage I have ever seen. This is what happens when growth stocks go wrong. Alfa had very high margins and a growth track record. However, it will be squeezed for the next couple of years.

[tsmith2] 04/6/2018 12:13

Not much to go onWhy wouldn't cut staff numbers to protect margins?that's just an assumption..miss is down to client specific deferrals

[m1das_touch] 04/6/2018 12:07

Hmmm, Berenberg are not sounding at all positive...

1037 GMT - Alfa Financial Software's contract delay hit is an "almost worst-case scenario," says Berenberg. The brokerage lowers its 2018 earnings estimate for Alfa by 50% to GBP20.8 million, rising to just GBP28 million by 2020. "With Alfa's largest cost being their staff, which they are unlikely to cut, we believe the company will have to weather substantially lower margins for a period of time as a result of lower staff utilisation," says Berenberg, which cuts its rating to hold from buy and its target price to 170 pence from 600 pence. Shares are down 15% at 157.80 pence, down from 314 pence on Friday.

[tsmith2] 04/6/2018 11:46

Seller cleared at 157.5, chunks worked and reported

[tsmith2] 04/6/2018 11:42

Gap ups coming

[tsmith2] 04/6/2018 10:36

160p ceiling double formed Intraday, next we break through with strong rally me thinks

[seball] 04/6/2018 09:48

Agreed high risk but contracts only delayed and new contracts will be in pipeline. Could be buy of 2018 imo. I'm in for some at this price. Good luck all

[tsmith2] 04/6/2018 09:40

Brokers - hyper bullish to hyper bears..big buy opp imo. Added significantly

[someuwin] 04/6/2018 09:25

Berenberg downgrades ALFA to HOLD and reduces target from 600p to 170p.

[coldspring] 01/6/2018 20:47

I agree the credibility is now in doubt with a greater than 50% fall in 12 months. This looked a quality outfit but now looks set to drift further until some better news but frankly even then would it be believed.

[trytotakeiteasy] 01/6/2018 20:14

Interesting how weak trading appears to have been in the share price with the stock trading lower. Very odd to do a trading statement in the afternoon in my view. A highly valued IPO but one which looked like very high quality and modest growth. The quality and growth are now both in question.

[davr0s] 01/6/2018 19:04

Historical evidence shows probability of the price going lower after a PW like this hence the comment - may not fit your view but unfortunately that is the way the market works which is why I only ever buy strength and sell weakness these days

[davr0s] 01/6/2018 19:02

You calling me a loony ?! Lol

[tsmith2] 01/6/2018 18:42

Loonies out

[davr0s] 01/6/2018 18:27

Sold these at 500 when trend broke - expectancy now not on the side of the bulls now