Alexander David Share Discussion Threads

[norman the doorman] 10/6/2005 14:02

now up 8% !

[norman the doorman] 10/6/2005 13:31

using the cannacord figures we should currently be at;

38.2p cash value
15.6p Guayuyaco 1
4.3p Malabares

or 58.1p a 30% hike from here.

there is the possiblility of Guayuyaco 2 producing good finds and then 10 wells to be drilled upto 2006. all paid out of cash.

link to AGM presentation....


worth a long. my target is £1.20.

[seadog2] 19/5/2005 06:19

who wee, that was some volumne today, somethings up??

[seadog2] 18/5/2005 03:43

thanks for update, as my handle implies , have been at sea and unable to read the wires. It appears the price is caught up in the general downdraft of oil stocks on TSX. Several others hit oil and still going down, I had been tipped that this was going to be a good play and at least with website up you can read the areas. I have been watching emerald and they are getting hits on ADS eastern side in campo rico, whicj I believe they will drill as zues? On a lot of sites chatter has dropped off with price falling and lack of news. As I have been told privatley, they only have to hit on one.......they have plenty of cash left which they raised at 2.50 mark...

[simon54] 09/5/2005 21:15

Is there anyone else here? Should I turn the light out?

[simon54] 05/5/2005 22:12

Just over a million traded on the TSX tonight and a 13%+ bounce - so here's hoping that was the bottom!

[simon54] 04/5/2005 20:18

Hi seadog2, here's the Canaccord note from 23rd Feb.:

Adulis Resources
(ADS : LSE : GBP1.93 | Issued 64.1M)
SPECULATIVE BUY
Mark Redway
[phone]
[e-mail]
Charlie Sharp
[phone]
[e-mail]
Company Statistics:
Recommendation SPECULATIVE BUY
Share Price (£) 1.93
Shares Outstanding (M) 64.1
Market Capitalisation FD (£M) 123.7
Net Cash (£M) 24.6
Oil price assumption 2005 ($/bbl) 40.0
Oil price assumption 2006 ($/bbl) 36.0
Oil price assumption 2007+ ($/bbl) 30.0
Core NAV (£/share) 0.16
Risked Expl NAV (£/share) 1.74
Total Risked NAV (£/share) 1.90
Valuation Summary:
Risked Unrisked
(p/shr) (p/shr)
Puma 4.1 25.8
Sirruma 84.0 646.3
Guayuyaco 15.6 17.3
Molino de Viento 7.5 57.6
Guariquies 11.3 78.0
Zeus 17.6 135.1
Alamo 6.1 36.0
Malabares 4.3 8.1
Cuerdas 1.1 5.9
Estimated Cash 38.2 38.2
Total 189.8 1048.2
Share Price Performance:
23/2/05
F M A M J J A S O N D J F
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
ADULIS RES. (ISE)
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX
Source: DATASTREAM
DRILLING UPDATE
Event: Adulis announced results from the Guayuyaco and the Guayabillas wells in Colombia. Guayuyaco flow tested from three separate zones at a combined rate of around 500 bopd. With appropriate pumping facilities it is thought that the well could produce from two zones at around 2,000 bopd and given its proximity to existing infrastructure it could be brought on stream within two months. A second well is now planned on the structure, which could increase the 15 mmbbl predrill reserve estimate. Furthermore, the success at Guayuyaco potentially brings into play other leads in the area including the 100 mmbbl sized Verdeyaco structure. The Guayabillas well recovered several barrels of heavy oil and the well has been suspended. Adulis also announced the start of drilling on the vast Sirruma structure with up to 10 tcf potential and the signing of a new contract at Guachiria Norte.
Impact: The positive impact of the result at Guayuyaco is largely offset by Guayabillas although we would expect to raise our valuation when sufficient information becomes available on the new prospects at Guayuyaco and at Guachiria Norte. Even so, these
projects are unlikely to overshadow the near-term impact of results from Sirruma, which accounts for around 45% of our entire valuation of the company.
Valuation: Our valuation on Adulis is detailed on a prospect-by-prospect basis in the table on the left.
Action: Adulis remains an interesting SPECULATIVE BUY given the potential of its forthcoming drilling programme that has an unrisked value in excess of £10/share. The
results from Guayuyaco bode well but a lot rides on the outcome at Sirruma. Results are due in March.
For important information, please see the Important Disclosures section at the back of this document.
Daily Letter | 11
February 23, 2005
Risks associated with our valuation and financial forecasts
There are risks associated with the share price achieving our target price and our
financial forecasts. Commodity prices may not match our forecasts; as with any oil and
gas company, there are operating risks involved in exploration, appraisal and
development of fields; foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations will impact both the
company's operating costs and revenues. There are also numerous technical and
environmental risks associated with the operation of an oil company that could have an
impact both upon the company's valuation and our financial estimates.
An analyst has not visited the issuer's operations.
Figure 1: Adulis Resources price target and recommendation record
Date published Price Target price Recommendation
February 23, 2005 £1.93 NA Speculative Buy
October 29, 2004 £1.11 NA Speculative Buy
Source: Canaccord Capital

Cheers,
Simon

[norman the doorman] 04/5/2005 16:31

as far as I can tell the reconditioning of the Bucaro well should give 770 bopd, Guayuyaco 2 should also be promising as 1,000 bopd has already been discovered there at Guayuyaco 1. Puma 1 should also be reported in this quarter. the question is when will the share price begin to bottom out to allow a decent entry point. the dry wells are a disappointment but the find at Guayuyaco 1 should provide some revenue to allow for further drilling. 65 million shares issued and $50 million in the bank.. we should see some sharp retraces if crude stays high coupled with some more successful drilling..

regards,
Norman.

[seadog2] 04/5/2005 00:48

I am a Canaccord account but we can't access UK research on this side of pond. Can you post anything? I keep getting told , they only have to hit one....website has lots on info, play looks good, like guys behind it, raised lots os money in UK, but have had several dry in a row.....hmmmm...

[simon54] 30/4/2005 14:09

OK (talking to myself), I'll have a crack at summing up the current position.

Canaccord Europe's note of 23rd Feb (i.e., after Guayuyaco and the Guayabillas but before the Sirruma 1 failure) gave a total risked val of 189.8p, unrisked of 1048.2p, of which Sirruma was 84.0p and 646.3p. Subtracting Sirruma altogether leaves 105.8p risked, 456.5p unrisked'

So, ignoring any further potential from the Sirruma 1, area current 'fair value' in terms of Canaccord's valuation is about 67% above Friday's closing SP, with seven to eight-fold unrisked upside.

Can we anticipate a further attempt in the Sirruma 1 area next year? Whether or not, any such possibility seems to be discounted for now.

Seeing the price movement on the TSX last night I'm quite optimistic that the share price may return towards the £1 level in the run-up to Molino de Viento results. However, Canaccord's valuation on this is pretty modest, with 7.5p risked and 57.6p unrisked.

Any corrections or comments welcomed!

Simon

[simon54] 30/4/2005 12:09

Sorry, pretty stupid question last night - have just looked at the header and seen "May 9th" for Molino de Viento 1. Also realise that the TSX will be open on Monday, so another day's action before further AIM trading. Should be interesting!

[simon54] 29/4/2005 21:42

I lurve the roller-coaster! Down 17% in London today (on a volume of about ten shares) but up to C$1.88 on the TSX tonight, equivalent to 75p, i.e. a 20% rise on today's London close. I hope I can get in a buy order first thing on Tuesday before everyone's woken up! (No chance). The Canadian market is just so bonkers, don't you think?

When's the next drilling report due? (There speaks someone who hasn't done his research well enough).

80p on Tuesday, I reckon?

[norman the doorman] 26/4/2005 14:58

your very welcome simon..

[simon54] 25/4/2005 22:04

Hi folks,
just came on board today. Down 4% on the TSX, I see, so I guess it's going to be a rough ride! ;-)

[day_dreamer] 22/4/2005 11:39

Quotes are much better now norman.

75.37p bid for 10k...77.63p offer for 7500 shares so
much more even quotes so it could be the bottom for
the shareprice but still hard to predict until you
see some trade.

Gravy

[seadog2] 21/4/2005 06:20

I would think the company will be looking very hard at drilling info , in that they need to bring in a hit .. right now, share price is below the financing. With the drilling list, they only have to hit one, and they are tying in production ofthe 2nd well for cash flow. Quite good sites spread out and I see they are on the west side of Emeralds campo rico hits..

[norman the doorman] 20/4/2005 14:37

agreed gravy but i cant see it going much lower and with only 2 weeks till news is out on the Molino de Viento well. The share price could recover nicely if any gas is found..

[day_dreamer] 20/4/2005 14:18

Dont think this is the bottom for the shareprice having looked
at online quotes.

On a monitor spread of 75-80p it's 75.62p bid for 3750 shares
but the offer is 77p (below mid price) for 50k so maybe best
to wait for next move in share price....those quotes suggest
it goes lower first.

Gravy

[norman the doorman] 20/4/2005 14:12

new thread.. following large falls in FLP and ADS jointed listed Oil explorers are trading at a substantially reduced share price . Adulis have 11 more wells to drill this year.. following an unproductive well in the Salinas block the share price should recover rapidly when analysis of Molino de Viento 1 and Bucaro 1 wells results are published around the 9th May..

[norman the doorman] 20/4/2005 13:56

Expansive Drilling Programme in Colombia - fully funded .... Preparing for gushers !






$51 million cash
pile. 12 Sites to drill this year. Dual listing on the TSX Exchange. Ticker ADE.
http://www.adulisresources.com

http://www.adulisresources.com/projects/pdf/drilling-schedule.pdf



3 Dry Wells have led to a collapse in the share price 12 more sites to drill this year. Some plays have already found oil, some have previously been drilled. Recent massive Director buying at $1.00 - $1.10 Finds at Guayuyaco 1 helping to produce positive cash flow revenues V. Experienced board. Get on board as Oil Futures are set to go higher. Puma has 60 million barrels recoverable could be worth $5. Other high impact wells like Guariquies may have 175 million barrels. Could push the share price even higher. Guayuyaco 2 on test.... Puma on test..... news expected this week...

[norman the doorman] 18/4/2005 19:24

May 9th for analysis results of Molino de Viento

[dave le rave] 06/4/2005 22:35

should hear about the result of the Molino de Viento well this week.

[assagai] 21/3/2005 13:16

Scrutable - Well you are half right. The original fall was explained a week or so back. Same deal hit FCP and one other. Fund manager selling.

The rise today is simply following Canada's close on friday, not based on anything here.

[littlepuppi] 15/3/2005 09:12

hmmm

slight spanner in the works.