Agcert Regs Share Discussion Threads

[utwiq] 12/11/2007 17:21

I suppose I'm breaking my own rule by posting here, but... (if I understand your post correctly) how do you make NAV three times MCap and cash twice MCap? That is not cash net of debt I presume as the company raised funds partly by way of what was then a dilutive share issue (and now looks wildly expensive!) and partly by way of expensive debt. If you're right and you are effectively buying discounted cash then fantastic. But I'd be surprised.

I can understand you averaging down when it is 6p rather than 100p, but it's not a good plan in general in my view. That is, you should be buying more just because it's cheap and you want as much as you can get not because the price is now lower and you want to lower the price at which you can exit gracefully. That way is costly.

Not sure I agree with your assumptions re failure to report material changes. First, and probably most importantly, the company was in pretty awful shape at the last reported results (in my view). The strategy had failed and they were flailing about for alternatives (consulting...). So the absence of news saying disaster has struck does not mean all is well. Second, these guys have form. Specifically, their business model had failed (per the Merril Lynch analyst, who did know his stuff) and they didn't tell the market. When finally pushed, by a rapid share price collapse (from 150p to 100p) they said, fear not there is no operational reason for the share price movement. Except there was. And then in the next results they pulled a blinder, announcing the abandonment of the previous direction and a new strategy.

None of this is new to you I know. Indeed, you may have better information (re cash, debt, etc.). So it may be worth buying a stake at this depressed level. But apart from the cash shell possibilities, there have been no signs, in my view, that this company is worth owning. It looked like a failed business a ways back. The collapse from 45p (last results, when I sold) to 6.5p just seems to indicate that a lot of other investors agree. I'm sceptical of letting share price movements convince one of the value of an investment (the two are largely unrelated), but certainly here it indicats poor sentiment.

[charlie11908] 12/11/2007 17:08

Why I bought!!!
I am quite a few grand down!!I would never buy a share
without being prepared to average down....all the way!!!

Nothing has changed since the company last reported!!!
No matter how negatve one's sentiment becomes...that is
a fact.

Could they be non compliant and have failed to report changes
of material difference....assuming they want to retain their
SE listing?

I do not think so!!!

If their plans for hedging risk have changed...or any other event
has taken place...they are BOUND to report it....and their house
broker has his licence on the line as well.
So, if nothing material has changed to affect the share price,
which let's face it has had only 3% roughly of the shares
changing hands since the last report.....
and the company's NAV is nearly three times the market valuation,
including double the cash to market value....
it is less of a gamble than usual!!!

But we penny share speculators are just that are'nt we?

Gamblers!!!!

Caveat Emptor!!!

[kalmar] 12/11/2007 16:52

due to the lack of comment from the company...i dont know what to think...but it would seem dire....buying here is a lottery on current action and the silence...multibag or bust....i thought risk/reward was decent at 21...and with imo the cred of the SCSW editor buying at 40...how wrong we can be.

K

[charlie11908] 12/11/2007 16:45

I am averageing down in the hope of saving some of my money.

Most people here would hope to do the same......after all
10000 at 6p is slightly different to 10000 at Quids 1 plus!!!

But you are right....it's probably cash down the drain
and a waste of money....

Being negative does'nt mean I don't want to buy?

Caveat Emptor!!!

[utwiq] 12/11/2007 13:50

charlie, I hope you don't still own any of this?
you were negative (rightly in my view) from much higher, so I assume not
but if not, why post so much...
AGC is not a pretty picture, but no need to linger over the corpse
of course, maybe there is hope, a shareholder may yet explain why
amazing that this has collapsed from +140p a few months back to 6.5p now

[charlie11908] 12/11/2007 12:49

Advfn says......

Shares In Issue 168.89 m
Market Cap. 10.56 m
Cash ...........20.00 m


* Cash on hand at end of period of Euro 27.7M or 20m stg at 0.70





I hope this helps you guys/girls...

Sure would be nice if some of you showed yourselves
instead of leaving me here all on my own!!!

Caveat Emptor!!!

[charlie11908] 12/11/2007 12:47

Caveat Emptor!!!

[charlie11908] 12/11/2007 12:45

* Developed new strategy requiring significantly lower capital

* Headcount was reduced to 193 compared with 312 at Dec. 2006 and 270 at
June 2006

* Revenues grew to Euro2.4m during the first half of year 2007, compared with
Euro25,000 for the period in 2006

* Cash on hand at end of period of Euro27.7M vs. Euro26.5M at June 2006

* Operating losses, before financial costs, fell to Euro22m, compared with a
loss of Euro47m incurred during the first half of 2006

* The normalised EBITDA loss for the period was Euro13.4m compared with a
normalised EBITDA loss of Euro15.7m for the 2006 half year results

* Received review date from US Patent Examiner of no later than Q1 2008
regarding our patent application covering the creation of greenhouse gas
offsets, and AgCert will be notifying potential infringers of intellectual
property


Overall, AgCert continued to make significant progress in the first half of
2007. The momentum around its new initiatives started building, and the
delivery risk for 2008 and beyond has been substantially mitigated.

[charlie11908] 12/11/2007 12:43

You can bet the company knew this was going to happen.....
I reckon they would tell the market everything they need
to say is already in the public domain!!!

And having read the last results again.....they leave
nothing to the imagination!!!


The fact is that they are now valued at £9 million and
have over £20 million in the bank!!!

I bought another 50k at 6.5p.

More money than sense I suppose!!!
Caveat Emptor!!!

[kalmar] 12/11/2007 12:36

I have never seen this happen with no comment before...this is now a bankruptcy job...no doubt about it...quite amazing plummet since the 40 mark...and as I said why 6.5..go on mm's move it to 1p ...trust me ..nowt will happen.

Cant believe SCSW did'nt say anything the weekend....this loss is my own fault for "blindly following" the editor in at 40p...got out at 37.....but then thought 21 was "a smart entry"....now gonna lose the lot...not happy..but i'm the idiot.

K

[charlie11908] 12/11/2007 10:00

Another body blow!!!
1m at 6.5p!!!!

Caveat Emptor!!!

[rammellzee] 09/11/2007 18:20

Kalmar - I doubt they have the energy or enthusiasm to pick the phone up!

[kalmar] 09/11/2007 16:21

has anyone called them??...why dont the mm's just push it to 1p...nothing will happen!!!

K

[fingolfin] 09/11/2007 15:36

still not a word from these chumps - unbelievable

[rammellzee] 09/11/2007 14:53

Seems like 5p is highly likely at this rate...

[rammellzee] 08/11/2007 17:16

They clearly havn't got a clue...you would have to be insane to invest any money in this at the current time...5p on the cards?

[fingolfin] 08/11/2007 12:48

new low - still no comment.

[kalmar] 31/10/2007 15:33

and still no comment!!!!!!

[charlie11908] 31/10/2007 09:38

Latifs100....
Surprising comment of yours....
the share price has now been traded at 7.5p
50k shares or so....
and that only for a couple of grand....

Caveat Emptor!!!

[latifs100] 31/10/2007 09:35

i thought 35p was bottom... need a rns to average down

[charlie11908] 31/10/2007 09:32

It got too rich for me...tried to sell 3 grands worth...
no volume.....7.5p bid!!!


Caveat Emptor!!!

[charlie11908] 31/10/2007 09:23

7.5 looks like the new bottom "ceiling"
70k shares just put through at that price.

Caveat Emptor!!!

[wiganer] 31/10/2007 00:00

yes. a ceiling price.

[charlie11908] 30/10/2007 10:27

That 10p sale last week drew a line
in the sand?????

Caveat Emptor!!!