Agcert Regs Share Discussion Threads

[charlie11908] 08/10/2007 19:53

Kalmar!!!!

What?

[kalmar] 07/10/2007 18:59

Charlie ???

[charlie11908] 06/10/2007 13:19

Gorgeous!!!!

[charlie11908] 02/10/2007 14:30

Is there a big seller around??????

[utwiq] 02/10/2007 13:48

one ton of carbon? twenty euros or so I think (for 2008 prices). but I've been out of this sector for a while so don't rely on me!

[charlie11908] 02/10/2007 13:45

How much is ONE credit worth?

[utwiq] 02/10/2007 13:37

charlie - I think you're right re XLT's continued support for AGC, they felt bound to support it (perhaps in part to ensure that the Tyratech float went ahead without AGC putting off investors?) but are keen to minimse continued involvement and exposure. Hence their own presentations predict only a modest contribution from AGC to overall NAV, and that may itself be an exaggeration.

To be fair, however, the private group funding AGC and XLT do seem to be willing to take AGC stock (from XLT) as interest payment. So maybe they are a little keener on AGC's prospects than are we. Having said that, this may be the consequence of XLT having signed a shrewd agreement back when AGC looked good...

I may be being much too harsh on managment (especially of XLT; that of AGC, well... I am still quite put out!). Sometimes business models fail, especially when you are applying new technology in the real world, with the overlay of a complicated and uncertain regulatory environment.

I'd be interested to hear from any present holders of the stock to understand the present investing logic. Trading is a different matter. Maybe they will pull back from this. Certainly on MCap alone they are one of the cheaper carbon trading outfits. But then they don't have the assets (cash or carbon) that others have.

[charlie11908] 02/10/2007 13:28

utwiq
Compelling logic....



Caveat Emptor!!!!

[utwiq] 02/10/2007 11:18

Explain to me please why this company is worth even £25m. I bought in at 100p and again at 80p before selling (in disgust and anger) at 45p after the results earlier in the year when, after explicitly saying that there was no operational reason for the fall from 160p (wrong, they were not getting the results needed and the business model was totally flawed), they came out and said "and now we shall totally change our approach and become consultants". Perhaps they have some marketable expertise in the sector. Perhaps. But they are virtually asset free and so I think it is no surprise that this is slumping towards zero. A pity (I didn't relish my 50% loss, but I'm very glad I took it!) as I'm quite keen on AGC's parent, XLT, but I'm waiting for the implosion here to lower the share price there. And I have to say that the woeful performance of this company does make me look less favourably on the XLT Group as a whole...

[kalmar] 02/10/2007 10:31

total freefall....sentiment totally against the company....this after results when they had a chance to stop the plumet...what now ??..a statement to say they know no reason for the drop??...a major error on my part...I said a week or so ago that this could get silly....and this is what I meant...

K

[charlie11908] 02/10/2007 09:21

Anyone care to suggest the Net Asset Value of what's
left of this business?

Caveat Emptor!!!!!

[squintyflinty] 02/10/2007 09:18

One trade and they are down 2 pence!

[rammellzee] 01/10/2007 23:39

Kalmar - I totally agree with you. I recently resubcribed to Sharewatch and am very curious to see what they have to say about the recent drop.

I always believed that this could drop to the 20p range (just a gut feel). But, if it goes to 10p or less this could be an interesting (if risky) punt.

Good luck!

Ramm

[kalmar] 01/10/2007 20:36

ramm...could be a single digit by friday at this rate...he was a buyer at least at 40p...it would take some conviction to still call it a buy...i'm very interested to see his comment.

K

[rammellzee] 01/10/2007 18:57

Mmmm....will be interested to see if Sharewatch (who previously tipped them at 40p) have anything to say about AGC in their next issue...

[kalmar] 01/10/2007 16:12

well...this stock looks floorless at the moment...market clearly not impressed.

K

[charlie11908] 28/9/2007 10:10

Will their previous institutional holders reappear?

[andypace] 27/9/2007 21:55

Looks like they've got a good pipeline of business now, with 100 projects on the go.

* The Company's existing production (AWMS business) is producing up to our
expectations, at a level of approximately 1.4 million tones per year which
represents an increase of 40% since January 2007.
* In strategic accounts the Company has built a strong pipeline of more than
100 potential Offset-creating projects and has signed its first one, a
hydro-electric plant in Colombia. The potential projects include the
industry areas of, cement and other basic industries, landfill, energy, and
fuel switching. Although the Company has uncovered a large number of
potential projects, the project approval cycle at the host company (prior to any regulatory activities) is proving to be longer than the Company had
expected, giving us confidence in the ultimate size of the market, but
leading us to lengthen the time in which we expect host companies to approve projects.
* The Company has completed 3 agency transactions covering 2.4 million CERs
through 2012 and finds there to be adequate volumes of CERs available in the market - albeit at rising prices since the May equity placing. AgCert has
sought to secure CERs which are earlier in the regulatory process than it
had originally planned as CERs from these projects are less expensive, but
carry more regulatory risk, and require a longer lead time to generate CERs.
* Progress in the forestry area is ahead of the Company's expectations,
including the completion of a joint venture with Forest Systems, an
established forest investment management firm and manager of a forest carbon sequestration fund. Forestry projects produce a different variety of
Offsets which are not fungible with CERs, but once established, forestry
activities can produce Offsets over the decades-long project life. Forestry projects initiated now would be expected to first produce offsets in about 2011.

As of this date, the current portfolio of Offsets through 2012 expected from its biodigester, strategic accounts and agency business breaks down as follows:


In negotiation 28.0 million tones
Under "Letter of Intent" 2.0
Contracted 16.0

[kalmar] 27/9/2007 21:35

well...i had 5k worth late this afternoon...interesting tmrw to see reaction after digestion of results...as before..tight stop-loss the order of the day.

K

[charlie11908] 27/9/2007 19:59

Time was when it was overvalued....
Now it is significantly undervalueddd....only
sentiment has not been restored!!!

Not sure who are this company's peers?

[fingolfin] 27/9/2007 15:36

Yes positive outlook for the future, wonder what the details on the dilution are though?

[andypace] 27/9/2007 15:35

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - AgCert International PLC said progress has been
steady but slower than anticipated since it implemented a strategic review of
its operations and finances in the first half of this year, including ongoing
job cuts, while it unveiled a reduction in its interim losses.
The producer of greenhouse gas emission reductions said pretax losses were
down to 28.46 mln eur from 47.12 mln the year before but revenues and operating
costs for the first half 2007 are in line with its expectations.
The company also completed a previously announced cutback in staffing and
operating costs at the end of the reporting period reducing its headcount to 193
from 317 at year end 2006 and 272 at June 30.
A statement from the company added that it has entered into a conditional
agreement with a major European trading company which is to assume up to 4.2 mln
tonnes of AgCert's customer delivery obligations through 2008.
AgCert said it has made good progress toward satisfying its delivery
obligations, and assuming that the transaction with the European trading company
closes, believes its 2007 deliveries are covered with existing production and
contracts, while those for 2008 would be 86 pct covered with existing production
and contracts as compared to 32 pct in May 2007.
Furthermore it added it was confident 80 pct of 2009 deliveries would be
similarly covered.
Since the period end, AgCert said it has agreed to repay a convertible loan
note originally issued to Laurus Master Fund Ltd, which was due to May 2008 and
has also agreed to a further credit facility of 7 mln usd, draw down being
subject to certain conditions.

[andypace] 27/9/2007 15:33

Looks like they've sorted out the majority of the contracted obligations. 2m euro of revenue and substantially improved EBITDA. Overall looks good IMO

[northwards] 27/9/2007 14:06

maybe my watch is fast .....