AGA Rangemaster Share Discussion Threads

[fargonorthdakota] 19/11/2012 08:20

Well so far the market seems to like the IMS, long may it continue!

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 12/11/2012 21:34

paul

nakedtrader.co.uk

check him out.

[simonparker5] 04/11/2012 06:58

Having had our 9 month old Total Control (TC) replaced because it went rusty, I think Aga have a whole load of issues at the minute which they haven't informed the market about. I know that we were not alone, just search google for aga bulliten boards, they might have replaced 100's of them. They also had / have a problem with the electronics of the new TC and have again had to replace 100's of these which didn't work properly. A simple calculation gives a figure which could wipe out this years profits and given the slow retail trade could really hit AGA hard. When this is announced officially just remember where you heard it first.

[paul_butcher1999] 03/11/2012 22:45

What is NT? Thanks

[slinkymalinki] 02/11/2012 14:07

NT has bought in, interesting to see what the share price will do now.

[wad collector] 03/10/2012 09:45

I think this is now an all time low.I have mentally written off my (fortunately small) holding here.Sadly , it has the look of a large ship sinking.

[wad collector] 28/8/2012 11:37

Paulypilot,
You clearly didn't read the intro - I pasted your blog entry with the statement "As modesty prevents him from posting it ; from his knowledgeable sounding blog.(Mind you it is possible he is a 5 year old with access to his Dads laptop!)"
I have no wish to pass off your entry as my own ; I merely thought it merited an entry in print rather than as a link.
I will however make the entry clearer , no offence intended. I certainly wouldn't wish anyone to think that was my work .


WC

[notanewmember2] 26/8/2012 19:08

60p has provided long term support, anywhere below and it is a good opportunity to ride it.

[hastings] 25/8/2012 09:16

For what it is worth paulypilot I think your summary is excellent.

[paulypilot] 25/8/2012 03:02

Hi,

Re post 586 above - Wad Collector, would you mind amending post 586 to make it more clear that you copy pasted my analysis of AGA from my Blog, and seemingly passed it off as yours.

Maybe I should put up a copyright message on my Blog, but it wouldn't hurt to learn some basic manners.

Thanks, Paul.

[smicker] 24/8/2012 23:38

From the 2010 results

"The current recovery plan put in place on completion of that valuation requires
payments or guarantees of £2 million in 2011, £10 million a year from 2012 to
2020 inclusive, and a bullet payment of £48 million on 31st December 2020"

What we have now

"A total deficit recovery contribution of £16 million will be made in the calendar year 2012, with the next deficit recovery contribution, amounting to £4 million, being made in the second half of 2015 prior to the expected completion of the next triennial actuarial valuation, to be undertaken as at 31st December 2014. As part of this agreement, guarantees currently provided to the pension scheme would reduce from £50 million to £30 million. Deficit recovery contributions thereafter would be £10 million per annum from 2016 to 2021 inclusive, with a lump sum contribution of £30 million equating to the remaining guarantees to be paid at the end of 2020"

So 20 million instead of 40 million will be paid as pension contributions from 2012 to 2015, which i have previously indicated i expected to happen. In my opinion we have had a result here and the state of the pension deficit at 31st Dec is a distraction. It is not an immediate liability. The ftse is already almost 5% up on its value at that time which has a serious effect on 750m worth of assets ( i know its not all invested in shares but enough is for it to be significant )

The key consideration is still to what levels the company's sales can recover and allow the operational gearing to do its work.

[simon templar qc] 24/8/2012 17:48

Agreed a basket case. Another basket case with a high pension deficit is Renold.

[angus17] 24/8/2012 12:07

you've got it Wad collector. almost a basket case I am afraid.

[wad collector] 24/8/2012 11:21

THIS IS FROM PAULY PILOTS BLOG

"I held some shares in AGA Rangemaster (AGA), the posh cookers company, a while back, until I did more research into the scale of their pension deficit - which is horrendous, so I sold. The results this morning on a trading level are a bit soft, but the outlook for the full year sounds positive, with growth expected.

However, this pales into insignificance when you look at the pension fund deficit, which in common with all final salary schemes, has seen liabilities rise sharply due to a fall in the discount rate (driven by corporate bond yields, which in turn have been forced down by QE).

This is not helped by the appalling mess that accounting for pension funds has become - so that a series of wildly different, and contradictory figures are published by most companies for their pension funds - the accounting deficit is completely different to the actuarial deficit, the numbers swing up & down unpredictably & subject to subjective decisions (like what discount & expected return rates to use), etc. It's a total mess.
NARS has even published misleading accounts which show a substantial pension surplus, even though there's a £26m deficit! (see my earlier article detailing that problem, which I forwarded to the FRC for investigation).
Some companies quote deficits before tax, others quote them after tax, there is no logic or consistency to pension fund disclosures as they stand.

The problem with AGA's pension fund is that it's vast (£760m assets, and a £6.8m surplus in 2011 turned into a £42m deficit in 2012). Moreover, the triennial deficit at 31 Dec 2011 is now expected to be higher than the previous £161m deficit in 2008! See what I mean about the figures being contradictory!

This is massively material, since the company is only likely to make a profit of £7m this year, and has a market cap of £46m, figures which are dwarfed by the pension scheme.

I tend to focus on the overpayments agreed with the pension trustees, to get an inkling of the real situation. In the case of AGA, the pension fund will have stripped out most of AGA's net cash, £16m this year alone, then there is a breathing space until 2015, when £4m is due. Overpayments then recommence at £10m p.a. from 2016-2021, and a lump sum of £30m in 2020.

These are pretty scary numbers, and in my opinion make AGA completely uninvestable. The whole business now exists purely to service the pension fund, and there is no prospect of a dividend for the foreseeable future (which in any case would need pension fund approval).

The only hope for shareholders is that the performance of the business recovers so well that it makes more than enough profit to service the pension deficit, and/or that interest rates rise sufficiently to eliminate the deficit through a higher discount rate. But do I want to bet on that happening? No! These shares should be much, much lower than the current price, and I think when people realise the extent of the pension deficit problems, AGA shares could go down significantly in price. I'd only be tempted to have a punt at about a quarter of the current price. So you have been warned!"

[angus17] 24/8/2012 09:25

look at what happened to UK Coal with their pension deficit. i am afraid AGA are in huge trouble.

[paulypilot] 24/8/2012 09:14

The pension deficit problem is now so large, that it dwarfs the actual business, and is likely to consume all the cash generated by the business for many years to come (unless there is either a big consumer recovery, and/or a rise in interest rates to reduce the pension deficit again - but do you see any of those things happening any time soon?)

I reviewed the results on my blog this morning, for anyone interested (updated daily at 8am);


Regards, Paul.

[wad collector] 24/8/2012 08:24

Todays statement starts with a lie ;
AGA Rangemaster Group plc ('the Group'), the specialist in range cooking and kitchen living, is PLEASED to announce its interim results for the half year ended 30(th) June 2012.
and then gets worse.
The pension fund appears to have lost £50M in 6 months ;
"During the first half of 2012, the surplus on the accounting basis in the Group's main pension scheme at the end of 2011 of GBP6.8 million moved to a deficit of GBP41.9 million"
Profits down and dividend abolished.
I only have a small holding here and have mentally written it off.

[smicker] 30/7/2012 08:18

Entering the Chinese market should be worth as bob or two

[cockneyrebel] 08/7/2012 11:13

I've held these time and again and every statement is hot and cold, bit like an AGA ironically.

They are positive in a t/s then the next one is a let down, the following one is then a tad upbeat only to be followed by a mdeiocre slightly disappointing statement.

I gave up on them when the chart fell over in May - don't think there's any point buying them until they can string a few decent statements together in a row. Think they need someboard changes with a new director or two with some creative thinking imo.

CR

[shaggies_view] 08/7/2012 10:55

Been watching this a while now and there is no reason I can find to jump in yet.

[techno20] 06/7/2012 13:55

Have exited this morning.

Overall the statement was broadly as I'd expected - business holding up well in an increadibly tough environment.

What I'd not expected was the cash position. Even taking into account seasonality it looks to be dropping like a stone!

Techno

[roddyb] 17/5/2012 15:22

oh come on! One trade today and the company sinks 10% in one day! How ridiculous.

Where is that investment magazine journo now? - the one with the hot tips.