Afritin Mining Share Discussion Threads

[outlawinvestor] 21/10/2020 08:47

The ITA's tin use survey was published yesterday. hxxps://www.internationaltin.org/pandemic-not-all-bad-news-for-tin/

[cyberbub] 19/10/2020 22:32

Interesting thanks. So it could be very profitable once into Stage III, but that is presumably several years away and shareholder returns will depend mostly on dilution, rather than the price of tin (as the tin will be free of charge!). Still sounds quite positive from 2.4p if you are willing to wait 5 years?

[outlawinvestor] 19/10/2020 22:26

C1 cash cost for Phase 1 Stage I is $13,900. Stage II and III will generate tantalum and lithium credits resulting in negative C1 cost of -6,300 in Stage III and -5,300 following Stage IV production expansion. https://www.investegate.co.uk/afritin-mining-ltd--atm-/rns/operational-update---uis-tin-mine-phase-1-review/202006160700030335Q/ They receive the LME tin price for the tin content of the concentrate minus penalties for deleterious elements. E.g. in July their concentrate averaged 65% contained tin and achieved 93% payability. IIRC Thaisarco pays 80% of the sales cost once the concentrate is loaded at Walvis Bay. https://www.investegate.co.uk/afritin-mining-ltd--atm-/rns/operational-update/202008050700021378V/ $3.8m CLNs were issued in Nov 19 with a conversion price of 4p. With an 18 month term they will probably be refinanced with another issue. https://www.investegate.co.uk/afritin-mining-ltd--atm-/rns/convertible-loan-notes-of--3-8m---update-at-uis/201911260700166588U/ The CLNs understandably worry people as does concerns about future equity placings. IMO a sound balance sheet needs needs a good portion of equity otherwise creditors will have you over a barrel. After Stage II once the tantalum is flowing retained earnings from mining operations will buffer shareholders equity. At least that's the theory.

[cyberbub] 19/10/2020 21:32

Let's be optimistic and say that they manage to increase production to an average of 55 tons per month between Sept and Feb = 330 tons, at an average of $18000 but let's assume the offtaker gets a 10% discount to $16000 = £12500 per ton. 12500 X 330 = £4M revenue. Let's say that cost of sales only doubles to £2M. So a £2M gross profit, minus G&A and interest of say £1.25M = £750k net profit (no tax due to previous losses). So they won't be able to repay the 2019 CLNs or the 2020 CLNs in March 2021. The former can be converted at the company's choice, so they could force the issuer to take 100M at 4p even if the share price is below that I think? The latter is "subject to agreement" but if the share price is above 1.95p (which seems likely) then the issuer will probably convert 100M shares and drip-dump them over some months? However in the medium/long term is an extra 200M shares a disaster? It's less than 25% extra shares in issue. If the company ends up with 1.1bn shares, but is from March 2021 free to move forward with a profitable mine, making potentially £2.5M p.a. post tax profit from Stage 1, then surely that means that an share price around today's levels will be reasonable? Investors are then buying in to their potential to ramp up Stage 2. How much debt would £2.5M of profits support - perhaps £35-40M? Would that deliver Stage 2? Having considered it based on the above I think today's share price of 2.4p is possibly reasonable, but only for long term investors (like Cannacord who recently bought in). In a few years perhaps it could be 10p+ say, maybe even 20p who knows. The only other way to consider it is if the price of tin rocketed in the short term, perhaps that could lead to a significant leveraged boost to profits and the SP?

[cyberbub] 19/10/2020 20:53

Looking in here again, I last had a look some months ago.I see that in the latest interims, they were still making a tiny gross margin on their low $1m sales. However at say $15000/t then this will be only 60 tons for the 6 month period. They claim they will be producing more than that every month soon...Is there any insight into the level of operational leverage of their 'cost of sales' figure? Have the company made any projections if the sales go up by 600% in H2, eg. will cost of sales only go up by 100%?Do the company get the full tin market price for the concentrate product they produce? Or is it lower due to lower quality, and/or a discount for the committed offtaker?I notice that they didn't give their total H1 production tonnage, which would have allowed calculation of their average realised price/ton... Is that suspicious?One final query. Apart from the £2M CLNs issued in May (strike price 1.95p if converted) what other CLNs do they have outstanding? I've seen reference to some at a 4p strike price?Thanks for any tips. The prospects look interesting here if they are close to an inflection point.

[a2584728] 14/10/2020 14:22

Nice move.

[outlawinvestor] 01/10/2020 11:12

Returning smelters reduce imports; Myanmar flooding to pressure China supply Our view: We expect the situation in Myanmar to continue throughout September and October, which could put pressure on raw materials supply in the country. This in turn is likely to see increasing imports of refined tin or a draw down of stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Stocks held in Shanghai have already begun falling, with warranted stocks falling by over 20% in the last two weeks. hTtps://www.internationaltin.org/china-trade-august-2020/

[outlawinvestor] 29/9/2020 21:07

AV's interview today with proactive: hTtps://youtu.be/suosqtcSA7g

[a2584728] 29/9/2020 12:06

This is so under valued.

[outlawinvestor] 29/9/2020 10:30

HY results were posted this morning. I'm not aware of anything else. https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ATM/half-year-report/14701359

[a2584728] 29/9/2020 10:19

Some positive update maybe coming out. Anyone heard anything ?

[outlawinvestor] 11/9/2020 15:28

Rising demand increases China’s appetite for overseas tin ...we expect that tin shipments from Myanmar will drop in September because of flooding. Mines in the Wa area have been completely flooded, while a mine collapse on August 20 has exacerbated the situation. Local news estimates that mines will resume normal operations in October. Therefore, we feel that Myanmar tin shipments in September and October could decrease to 1,500 tonnes tic per month. hTtps://www.internationaltin.org/china-trade-data-july-2020/

[outlawinvestor] 10/9/2020 11:33

The drive for greener cars must be matched by cleaner lithium https://www.ft.com/content/3a63d67b-2689-4b81-9035-29ff3e75505e Interesting opinion piece... not sure if ATM's lithium extraction plans carry similar environmental risks.

[shieldbug] 09/9/2020 08:48

Reduced ore processed, increased contained tin produced. Great result. At the current rate of 25.6t contained tin per month at $18,000/t, annual revenue over $5m.

[a2584728] 09/9/2020 07:32

More positive progress in difficult times. Well done to the team

[outlawinvestor] 09/9/2020 07:19

Operational Update Anthony Viljoen, CEO of AfriTin Mining Limited commented: "We are pleased to have completed the bottleneck modifications to the dewatering circuit on our plant and to have extended the production increases of the past three months. We will now look to leverage these circuit improvements to reach our Stage I production target of 60 tonnes of concentrate per month in Q4 of 2020." https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ATM/operational-update/14679387 Good to read of more progress - close to 70% tin in concentrate. Well done!

[outlawinvestor] 08/9/2020 12:18

Recent Uis mine processing video shared by someone on the LSE forums: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Qmu63apOLw

[outlawinvestor] 07/9/2020 18:34

Tin 3 month futures in Shanghai have started the week with a continuation of last week's rally. Not sure why but ADVFN won't let me insert an image tag! So here is a link instead! hTtps://ibb.co/KXNwdrR

[shieldbug] 28/8/2020 18:40

Makes you wonder if AV is "gambling" on a much higher tin price.

[sleveen] 28/8/2020 14:10

Exactly, the going concern makes the assumption that the CLNs WILL be converted (@4p)

[outlawinvestor] 28/8/2020 09:38

Some creative accounting by the company classifying the £3.8m CLN as equity rather than debt! With a 4p conversion price the chances of conversion are slim so it will likely be refinanced with a more dilutive issue. The company is still some way off from profitable operations, I can't see many responsible options for supporting the balance sheet... AV needs to steer clear from painting a false picture of an undiluted balance sheet.

[32campomar] 28/8/2020 09:09

Yes huge dilution down the line unfortunately. Can't see anything but share price weakness, certainly in the short term.

[sleveen] 28/8/2020 09:04

Look at the going concern statement and assumption thereupon, looks like massive dilution coming based on the convertibles and loan notes. Even full pilot production will not be enough to generate cash.