African Copper Share Discussion Threads

[p1ncer] 03/5/2012 12:37

Outsourcer,

To be honest I am trying to be conservative with any projected price that ACU might be sold for.

However looking at the prices for a number of other companies, it is difficult to see us going for less than $200m to $300m, and if I was to do a more honest comparision it should be nearer $500m!!

However until we see some actual figures, who is to say, anything could happen.

Though looking at the number of large round figure trades of the last few days, it could be we are nearing the end game.

[outsourcer] 03/5/2012 11:47

P1ncer I want a lot more than that otherwise I have wasted the last couple of years holding !

[p1ncer] 03/5/2012 10:58

It is very difficult to see a buyout price less than the current share price

In fact if the buyout price is less than 3x the current Sp, we will have been robbed.

But you need to make your own decisions, no one can guaruntee anything.

[lesteague] 03/5/2012 10:09

Very temtped to buy a few more... although the buy out price could be less than the current SP??? Tricky

[p1ncer] 03/5/2012 09:08

Looks like the buying is continuing.

[p1ncer] 02/5/2012 16:40

Hi lesteague,

No idea how long before the sell off, the process is now two months old.

Though they should need to issue another Cautionary Announcement RNS 45 days after the last one, if the deal is not done by then, should around end of March

[lesteague] 02/5/2012 15:10

Interesting P1ncer, there does appear to be some fairly large purchases over the last few days.. How long before the sell off?

[lesteague] 02/5/2012 15:10

Interesting P1ncer, there does appear to be some fairly large purchases over the last few days.. How long before the sell off?

[p1ncer] 02/5/2012 14:45

It shows the demand there is for copper, and copper mines.

The LME copper stocks have dropped off a cliff.

the chinese play the long game, so are buying up stocks for the future.

But ultimately we are in the hands of ZCI, RMB and whoever decides to put an offer in.

One thing I would say, is looking at the trades of the last few days, there are a steady number of buys of 30k, 50k, and 60k.
Is this someone mopping up free floating shares?

[lesteague] 02/5/2012 12:02

What does this mean for ACU:

[p1ncer] 30/4/2012 17:28

For ACU Thakadu alone had estimated 4.715 mln tonnes.

For Mowena the company said estimates included 32.85 mln tonnes grading 1.61 pct copper and 40.75 mln tonnes grading 1.41 pct copper.

Yet another sale that would place an indicative price for ACU of aboput $500m.

Once again I'm not saying that's what ACU will go for, but if all the recent sals are anything to go by, it should be.

None of us know what ZCI will get for their share, but if they sell the lot whoever buys them will have to offer the same price to all other shareholders.

[p1ncer] 30/4/2012 17:19

----China's Gingko Energy Company has revealed plans to invest $100 million to revive production at Kilembe copper mine in western Uganda.
Gingko Energy's chairman, Lin Rui Hui revealed the investment plans to Uganda President Yoweri Museveni of the investment on Friday. Officials of the East African country's president's office also confirmed that the $100 million Chinese investment would span a five-year period.
Uganda's Department of Geological Survey and Mines said that the Kilembe copper mine has an estimated 4 million tonnes of ore. With 1.98 percent estimated to be pure copper and 0.17 percent cobalt.
Production at Kilembe peaked in the 1970s at around 18,000 tonnes of copper cathode a year. However, the mine was abandoned in the early 1980s due to political turmoil and a fall in copper prices.---

[p1ncer] 25/4/2012 08:21

----------A subsidiary of Peruvian miner Minsur, one of the world's largest tin producers, said on Monday it had reached an agreement to buy a controlling stake in the Mina Justa copper project in central Peru for $505 million.---

Actually the $505m is only for 70% of the stake in the Mina Justa copper project

CST had hired Morgan Stanley to advise on the sale on Jan 12, about 6 weeks before ZCI's strategic review.

Though it is always dificult to compare like with like, it gives us an idea of the kind of timescale another company has achieved.

Obviously ZCI's slae could be quicker could take longer, though if it does take longet expect another Cautionary Announcement at the next 45 day stage, which should be around 30th of May

[p1ncer] 24/4/2012 09:14

----------A subsidiary of Peruvian miner Minsur, one of the world's largest tin producers, said on Monday it had reached an agreement to buy a controlling stake in the Mina Justa copper project in central Peru for $505 million.

The project is located in the coastal region of Ica and requires an investment of $750 million. It is expected to produce 60,000 tonnes of copper per year starting in 2013, according to the Ministry of Energy and Mines.------

So they are paying $505m plus invesment of $750m for a mine that won't start producing until next year.

This seems to tie in with the prices paid recently for other copper mines, of $1b+ ofr mines that produce 60k tonnes p/a.

ACU are looking at 30k t p/a as things stand. And are heading to the 10k p/a figure.

Plus ACU also have 'three world class mineral deposits' that they have be prospecting.

We continue to wait for news

[p1ncer] 20/4/2012 12:52

Just been looking at this years production figures that are already in the public domain.

ACU up to March look to have produced 7045 tonnes of Copper, which at a price of $8000 a tonne works out they should have generated $56.36m in revenue this year.

They have spent quite a bit on exploring and testing other prospective areas, which according to them should lead to at least three 'world class mineral deposits'.

They have also spent money dealing with bottleneck issues, so not expecting a profit as such.

But in March they reached record production of 809 tonnes, as production increases costs come down, and hopefully the one off expenses on the mine improvements will end and they should start turning a profit.

If they hit 10k tonnes p/a that will be revenue of $80m at $8000 a tonne.

Remember they are actually looking to produce 30k tonnes p/a which would bring in revenue of $180m p/a and this is before they start on the 'three world class mineral deposits'

The present market cap on ACU is riduclous (as with many AIM'ers)

if someone wants to buys us out, ZCI should demand top dollar or keep ACU as it is, and we should reap some big returns as the share price increases with production and profits to where it should be which in my opinion is 10p + in the next 12 months.

[p1ncer] 20/4/2012 11:56

--For future deals, the best potential targets are those who are close to or already in production and are generating free cash flow.--

[p1ncer] 20/4/2012 11:53

---Even though copper prices have suffered due to concerns about the state of the global economy, the future looks better, owing to a global copper shortfall and a scarcity in large-scale copper assets. Rio Tinto (RIO) expects copper demand to double over the next 10 to 15 years. The world's top miners are striving to expand production. The fastest way to do that is by buying an active mine, so I believe that we will see an increasing trend of M & A activity in the copper mining sector.---

I know where there are a couple of active mines up for sale

[p1ncer] 20/4/2012 11:06

Outsourcer,

They are now having problems as they try to up production, as ACU have found over the last couple of years it is not as easy at people think, and things go wrong.

For ACU it looks like the problems are behind us, ZCI have provided the money to invest in the mine.

Lets hope we soon get the chance to sell out of ACU for 12p.

Nearly two months into the Strategic Review, hopefully news due.

Though i will top up at these prices whenever I can.

[outsourcer] 20/4/2012 08:10

P1ncer, I used to hold Weatherly but for once got lucky and sold out around 12p just before the fall, I always wondered why that went so high when it wasn't even mining at the time and it has always been higher than us

[p1ncer] 19/4/2012 15:35

"Weatherly International Plc ("Weatherly" or "the Company") is pleased to present its quarterly update for the third quarter of its 2011/12 fiscal year.
Highlights
-- Third quarter production achieved 5,148 tonnes of copper concentrate and 1,214 tonnes of contained copper."

I have though for a while that WTI are about a year behind ACU, and they hope to produce 20kt p/a ACU look to produce 30kt p/a yet they are valued at £27m and ACU are valued at £21m, and jan 11, WTI was three times it's current market cap

This proves how 'unloved ACU' is.

But, with the sale news due, we will be finding out shortly just how loved ACU is about to become.

[p1ncer] 16/4/2012 21:48

"Shareholders are advised that the process is ongoing and may have a material effect on the price"

I wouldn't have thought that the "material effect on the price" would e to the downside.

So hopefully this "material effect on the price" will ensure it is materially higher than it is today.

[p1ncer] 16/4/2012 21:44

Outsourcer,

So do I.

I thought it showed that just because an RNS has the words "exercising caution" in them, doesn't really mean anything, it could just as well mean don't sell, as much as don't buy.

Strategic review now nearly two months old, not sure how long these things take though

[outsourcer] 16/4/2012 21:33

Pincer, I hope we aren't only bought at 50% higher than the current share price !

[p1ncer] 16/4/2012 16:53

For what it is worth, I suspect this is a technical announcement in relation to one of the indexes that ZCI is on, that they need to re-issue the cautionary statement every 60 days. Though I am not 100% on this.

as someone on ii mentions "Just refer to Anvil Mining cautionary announcement a few months back (same "cautious" wording as ZCI) , 2 months later they were taken over by the Chinese (Minmetals) 50% higher than the SP"

Having the word cautionary in this RNS has sppoked some people, though a lot of the trades marked as sells are actually buys, I know because I bought some more today and paid 2.80.

If i can get some for 2.60 after the end of day drop I will do so..


-----The world's largest copper miner has been forced to buy from other miners and traders to meet its deliveries to customers, a rare move that underscores how the mining industry is struggling to lift output to meet demand for the red metal----

[p1ncer] 16/4/2012 09:51

I must say though that the price has held up well over the last couple of weeks, not the usual drop 30% after news that most AIM companies seem to do now a days.

Hopefully that is a good sign.