Aferian Share Discussion Threads

[foxman14] 12/6/2023 14:12

Yes taken a few now. Let's see what happens in the proceeding months

[shovon1000] 09/6/2023 14:59

Totally undervalued.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 31/5/2023 12:12

Well Kestrel have certainly got their pound of flesh but then I guess beggars can't be choosers.

[pugugly] 16/5/2023 13:47

Masurenguy :> Tea-leaves well read - Down heavily today and gut feel is possibly further to fall

"Following the investment made in inventory within the Amino business, the Group currently has a net debt position, and expects this to continue throughout the current financial year. As previously announced on 10 March 2023, we expect Group revenue and adjusted EBITDA for FY23 to be significantly below FY22, albeit that the Group is expected to generate a material positive EBITDA."

Bid offer at time of posting 32/36p

[sharw] 09/5/2023 22:42

In giving notice of the AGM for 31/5 they say "The 2022 Annual Report is expected to be sent to shareholders later this month". That is more confident than the "as and when" of the previous statement.

[masurenguy] 09/5/2023 07:09

Not looking at all good here. The results for previous year (y/e November 21) were announced on 10th February 22 but they have still not been issued for last year (y/e 30 November 22) and no publication date has been announced yet either. If they don't issue them by the end of this month they will be in breach of AIM rules and the shares will be suspended. How does the CEO survive here?

Fortunately I exited my position here at 140p in April 22 and have no current position (post #49).

[masurenguy] 13/3/2023 15:24

Clearly there is a financial issue here with regard to potential future bank covenant compliance and the consequential delay in the publication of their audited results for last year. For the past 3 years these were issued during February but no announcement has yet been made regarding a publication date for their year ending 30 November 22.

In their y/e update issued on 8 December they stated: "For the year ended 30 November 2022 the Group expects to report adjusted operating profit within the $7.8m-$8.8m guidance range. Total revenue is expected to be approximately $91m, representing a c2% decrease on the prior year. Net cash at 30 November 2022 is expected to be slightly ahead of expectations at $4m, following better than expected cash collection from customers."

However, last weeks update stated: "The Board now expects Group revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the year ending 30 November 2023 to be substantially below its original expectations. Notwithstanding the difficult trading conditions of the Amino business in the first half of the year, the Company is still expected to generate a positive material adjusted EBITDA for the full year. The Company is in compliance with its banking covenants and is in discussions with its banks to ensure future covenant compliance. This will delay the announcement of the full year audited results for the year ended 30 November 2022. A further announcement will be made as and when practicable."

[scepticalinvestor] 13/3/2023 14:23

2p next stop?

[pugugly] 13/3/2023 10:28

How long now until liquidation.

[masurenguy] 13/3/2023 10:26

AFRN has just broken thru their ATL of 28p in 2009 and they are now nearly 90% down on their initial fundraising @220p some 18 years ago in 2005. How much longer can the CEO continue to survive?
No position.

[jonesy100] 12/3/2023 17:36

Reading further, I think the fall may also have been about worries relating to SVB contagion. Aferian apparently has loan facilities there but I am not clear on the detail. Still cautiously optimistic but could be even more bumpy near term while these are renegotiated out.

[kalai1] 10/3/2023 14:46

Aferian plc issued negative guidance this morning triggering a 40% plunge in the share price. The 24i business continues to trade in line with expectations, but the Amino business is now expected to substantially underperform in FY23. Cost cutting measures are being implemented, but group revenue and adjusted EBITDA will be substantially below original expectations, albeit still with a positive material adjusted EBITDA for the full year. Clearly the business story here is soft, while the massive share price correction means that momentum is also negative. However, the flip side of the drop means that valuation is now starting to look relatively attractive. It is plainly too soon to consider buying just yet, but AFRN has solid balance sheet and longer run history of decent profit and looks to be a company well worth monitoring from here...

...from WealthOracle

[simon gordon] 10/3/2023 14:25

Mas,

It looks like they've left it too late. The software growth is pedestrian and their hardware is a limited market.

[masurenguy] 10/3/2023 14:07

Quite agree that it is quite amazing that the CEO is still there. Kestrel really need to get a grip as the largest shareholder, which presumably is why Royde has now come on board as an NXD. Quite likely to see a new CEO over the next few months.

[simon gordon] 10/3/2023 11:18

Amazing the CEO is still in place. The Chairwoman saw the writing on the wall and left. His 2025 plan is like WAND's sales figures, a figment of the imagination. Looks like Kestrel have been asleep at the wheel. Is it a dodo?

[masurenguy] 10/3/2023 11:09

football - 61: looks like people in the know got out before the TU. insider dealing?

There is no evidence of that whatsoever. Kestrel, the largest shareholder, added 877,000 shares last month at circa 95p. They would hardly have done that if they had advanced knowledge of the content of the subsequent trading update.

Jonesy100 - 62: Still feel there could be deep value in this stock.

You could be right. I'm still not tempted yet but a fall of almost 80% since last year means the market cap is now under £30m. However, they may need some refinancing before we see any revival here.

[jonesy100] 10/3/2023 08:57

Still feel there could be deep value in this stock. Not much liquidity and may look way oversold in six months.

[football] 10/3/2023 08:54

looks like people in the know got out before the TU



insider dealing?

[bookbroker] 10/3/2023 07:13

Looks like you were right!💩

[masurenguy] 01/3/2023 16:15

Shareprice has fallen 10% today and 25% over the past 10 weeks since the trading update on December 8th. Kestrel increased their stake by 4% last month. Financial results due any day now.
Still no position - just remains on my watchlist.

[masurenguy] 08/12/2022 07:56

Latest TU shows some positive streaming & software sales growth offset by a decline in hardware sales. No position - remains on my watchlist.

Trading Update

Strong YoY Exit Annual Recurring Revenue growth of 15%

Aferian provides a trading update for the year ended 30 November 2022. The Group confirms that Group trading has finished the year in line with the Board's expectations and anticipates announcing full year results consistent with the guidance ranges communicated on 24 October 2022. For the year ended 30 November 2022 the Group expects to report adjusted operating profit1 within the $7.8m-$8.8m guidance range.

Driven primarily by its 24i business (which focusses on streaming video experiences), the Group has continued to make strong progress in improving its quality of earnings and enhancing revenue visibility. Exit run rate Annual Recurring Revenue ("ARR") is expected to be approximately $17.5m (FY21: $15.2m), up 15% versus the prior year, or 23% on a constant currency basis. Higher margin software and services revenue is expected to be approximately $24m (FY21: $22.4m), an increase of 7%, or 15% on a constant currency basis.

Device revenues in our Amino business (which connects Pay TV to streaming services) are expected to be approximately $67m (FY21: 70.5m), a decrease of 5% year-on year. This is due to the desire of some customers to reduce their working capital, particularly in the USA. As previously announced, this trend is expected to continue into the first half of FY23 as some customer inventory levels remain high having been bolstered to mitigate for earlier supply chain disruptions. Consequently, total revenue is expected to be approximately $91m, representing a c2% decrease on the prior year ("FY21").

Net cash at 30 November 2022 is expected to be slightly ahead of expectations at $4m, following better than expected cash collection from customers.

Donald McGarva, Chief Executive Officer of Aferian plc, said: " Aferian will deliver full year numbers in line with our recently stated guidance. We have continued to make progress this year to evolve Aferian into a leading video streaming solutions company to both serve and shape our growing market. Our results demonstrate that we continue to execute on improving our software and annualised recurring revenue growth and we look forward to providing more detail at the time of our full year results."

[masurenguy] 29/11/2022 07:05

I note that Kestrel have increased their stake by 9% to 25.09% since the profit warning and cash depletion projection in the October trading update. Fortunately I exited at circa 140p in April but this still remains on my watchlist for a possible future re-entry.

[masurenguy] 24/10/2022 12:56

I thought that this unusual comment might have some significance !

"The person responsible for the release of this announcement on behalf of the Company for the purposes of MAR is Mark Carlisle."

Why was the CFO nominated as the person responsible for issuing the update rather than the CEO !