Aero Inventory Share Discussion Threads

[simonrk] 16/12/2008 12:09

"Malaysia Airlines earlier this month said it was pursuing 'strategic partnerships' with some airlines, which included a maintenance, repair and overhaul joint venture with Qantas."

This is interesting for AI. surely.

[sleveen] 10/12/2008 08:07

Teletext:Iberia saying BA must choose between QANTAS and itself. Not sure how this might affect the share price (if at all).

[robsy2] 10/12/2008 08:04

Yes I saw that. Do you know if there is there any connection between Lansdowne and AI.? I could be wrong but I have it in the back of my mind that we share non-exec directors or something ....
Ken :re divi I think you are right the pay date is the 11th.Bloody good divis. If they do their stuff this is now on a divi of over 10% now, which is not half bad for a growth stock!
Talking of divis I bought some Dawson International, at 50p ish they were on a fairly solid divi of around 15%!! Gone up a bit since but it does show that there are pockets of real value emerging from the ruins.

[mdj8] 09/12/2008 13:03

Lansdowne obviously like us. Up to 10.55%. I hope their planned exit is post GBP15....

[kenbachelor] 05/12/2008 08:40

Are we expecting a divi next week? I've got 11th December on my computer.

[robsy2] 04/12/2008 18:27

MDJ8

Predictably Iberia have got on their high horse about the 3 way merger. Not surprising really since apparently the first they knew was when they read about it in the press!While they have a point about the BAY pension obligations they are not in a strong position themselves so this move will focus their attention and lots of others as well.Knowing Spain as i do I'd press on with the BA QA deal because they have the political agreement sorted, they can invite Iberia to join the party later as partners handling the South American side of things. On that basis I agree that a BA QA deal is more likely and that is where the action is for us.

Like you say other factors that are really helping us are Libor and GBP collapsing.Its a dream ticket to be in a sterling priced stock that is pretty well 100% exposed to the fall in sterling.Neatly enough, the EPS forecast of 145cents theoretically makes it a round pound of EPS for 2008/9.....

[mdj8] 04/12/2008 13:02

I don't think it's a done deal but I do think BA need to do something to restore a bit of confidence. IMO a tie up with Qantas is much more likely than with Iberia. Better cultural fit, shared routes, commonwealth history and all that good stuff. The fact that the Oz government has said OK to their national carrier being "merged" is significant too. Incidentally US$ Libor quite steady since mid-Nov at approx 2.2%, oil still around $50-pb and GBP down to 1.45. Earnings for us should be looking good even though the share-price doesn't.

[robsy2] 04/12/2008 11:28

Reading what you guys are saying it sounds like a done deal.....
I don't think anything is going to happen very quickly but it does demonstrate that the crisis will force change amongst the airlines and the likely link up of Quantas and BA and maybe Iberia as well will set the pace.Its all about cost savings and thats cool because thats what we are all about as well.
The BAQAIB platform will require global support. We are well positioned.

[mdj8] 03/12/2008 02:56

If you guys are really interested you could always check the initial term of the Qantas contract. I'll give you a starting point, the contract took effect on the 6th October 2006. After that you could find out just who "BA's suppliers" are...

[sambessey] 02/12/2008 21:34

Credible IMO- who says Qantas won't take up BA's suppliers?

[bizochio] 02/12/2008 20:16

'In response to recent media speculation, British Airways Plc confirms that it is exploring a potential merger with Qantas Airways Limited via a dual-listed company structure.'

having just topped up last week i am hoping this is good news and materialises. I assume that if the takeover did happen then they would have to stand by existing contracts?

My mind is a bit sceptical in these markets and turning the initial optimistic view on its head brings a view that business could go away from AI by the merged outfit using BA's suppliers if they didn't. Is this credible or just overly pessimistic thinking in gloomy times?

[sleveen] 02/12/2008 17:12

Thanks MDJ8 Makes sense to both parties. Let's hope for announcement in due course.

GL All

[mdj8] 02/12/2008 17:02

Sleveen, I don't think so. BA have a huge engineering operation which is heavily unionised so AI. in the normal course of business may find it difficult to strike a deal with them. I envisage that with a BA/Qantas tie up, AI. would get in through the back door so to speak. At a minimum BA could then use the overhaul facilities in Oz whilst Qantas would use BA/AI. in London. Both parties would be able to negotiate a deal to extend the AI. operation in a way that benefits each other without overextending AI.s resources in the short term and reducing BA's costs over the longer term.

[sleveen] 02/12/2008 15:34

Good news me thinks.

MDJ8 would AI have to purchase BA's spares at a cost to AI?

[johnrxx99] 02/12/2008 14:22

robsy2 - sorry for the late reply but the figures are from Sharescope, which I use for portfolio analysis

[mdj8] 02/12/2008 13:27

Nice spot Robsy. We could become a preferred supplier to BA without putting any money up front!!

[robsy2] 02/12/2008 13:05

In response to recent media speculation, British Airways Plc confirms that it is exploring a potential merger with Qantas Airways Limited via a dual-listed company structure.


This could be good news for us.

[woracle] 30/11/2008 10:40

More macro-economic news on the industry slowdown. Cathay and others in far east taking measures to combat slowdown.

[robsy2] 29/11/2008 18:42

Its true that air-travel is now falling but it has not plummeted like the AI. share price
If you look at the overall stats published by IATA then the total amount of ASK (air seat kilometers)for international flights is up 2.7% this year compared to last year.
Quantas now say they will fly 4% less in the next 6 months and that they expect to increase by 2% in 2008/2009.
At ANA the ASK has fallen about 4% so far this year but to put it in context they have still done 52billion ASK overall this year.
Against this backdrop we know that AI. has increased sales 82% in the last 4 months mainly through full implementation of existing contracts, we also know that they are discussing new contracts and that our management is " focused on continuing to grow the business substantially".
Baffled as I am by the fall in the sp,I'm thankful to Mr Market for giving me the opportunity to pick up more shares at these prices.
It's my birthday next month, I think I'll ask the family to all chip in together and buy me some more AI shares.

[russianlinesman] 26/11/2008 20:00

qantas results yesterday..

"Qantas said its latest capacity cuts, equivalent to grounding 10 planes, would be met partly by not taking up planned leases of two A330-200 aircraft and by stopping all planned growth within Australia for Qantas and its budget airline, Jetstar."

[robsy2] 26/11/2008 18:19

heh heh! dont think it works that way.....

Here is an article from Telegraph thatrefers to AI.


When will shares start to take off?
Many people are still trying fully to understand what caused the recent trauma in financial markets.

By James Bartholomew
Last Updated: 8:28AM GMT 12 Nov 2008



James Bartholomew: 'I have also increased my stake in Aero Inventory.' Photo: GETTY
It is not just curiosity. Understanding the causes may be the best way to work out what will happen next.

I have started reading and recommend The Subprime Solution: How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do About It by Robert Shiller, a Yale professor with a track record of forecasting the crash. It is an accessible book with plenty of data about the extraordinary rise in American house prices that took place before everything went wrong.

A non-financial person asked me what had happened. I suggested it was like that arcade game where you put in coins, one at a time. The coin falls down and, you hope, will push forward a huge pile of coins teetering on the edge. If so, the pile will topple over, making many coins cascade into your lap.

The mountain of credit was built up rather like that. The overhanging pile kept getting bigger. It was bound to crash down some time but you didn't know when something would push it over the edge. Indeed, some of us made quite a good deal of money while, fundamentally, things were getting more and more dangerous.

I don't think anyone fully understands what has happened, let alone what will happen next. I have talked to economists, including ones who predicted a crisis, and I strongly suspect that even they do not really understand the whole thing. They can see some big shapes through a misted up window. But one thing I now think I need to accept, as an investor, is that the so-called 'debt deflation' could go a lot further, further damaging asset values.

There are various vicious circles that form part of the crisis. For example, house prices have come down so surveyors are reducing their valuations and banks are becoming more cautious about lending which means fewer people can buy, so prices must come down further still. I doubt that this and other similar processes have come to an end. As a result, I think shares that depend on property values should be avoided.

But what about the stock market as a whole? We have got past horrible October and have two reasons to think there might be a major rally now. First, the market is extremely oversold. Second, it is the season of the year when shares often rise. Many companies remain extremely good value and interest rates are coming down. One pundit has called it the 'opportunity of a lifetime'.

Maybe it is. But most bear markets take a while longer than this. The quick reversal of 1987 was an exception. I wouldn't trust a big rally. But I also fear a scenario whereby I keep out of a rally until it gets really strong and then join in belatedly, just in time for the relapse. At the time of writing, I am simply not sure how to play this.

I currently hold 25pc of my portfolio in my Japanese Yen bonds (thank heaven for them), 19pc in other bonds and cash and 55pc in shares. I have sold all my bank shares and my shares in Cheung Kong, the Hong Kong property company. My remaining property-related shares Oakdene, Paragon, Equity Balkan, Carpathian and Tolent have fallen so far they are now a minor part of the portfolio.

Most of my shares are in small cash-producing companies rather than asset-based ones. My biggest holdings are Healthcare Locums and Telecom Plus, both of which have stood up to the crisis very well because they are growing cash-generators.

I have also increased my stake in Aero Inventory. This is slightly more adventurous since it is a business that needs capital in order to hold plenty of stock. But it offers a good proposition to banks in that it can put up its own stock-in-trade as security and the stock is of a sort that is easily tradeable, consisting of spare parts for aeroplanes like Boeing 747s.

The shares, at 266p as I write, are at a mere 3.1 times the consensus forecast earnings for this year. Some directors have bought more shares and so have I.

[milacs] 26/11/2008 18:16

Looks like the bonus arising from the share price hitting £15 by 2010 is up in smoke.

Is there a corollary, the share price hits £1.50 the directors take a 50% pay cut.

M

[robsy2] 26/11/2008 15:32

Yes UBS have upped their stake to over 6%.Why wouldn't you if you had the money and there lies the problem. There is no money!

If in doubt remember the latest reserach note says

Eps forecast growth 1 and 2 years: 40%+ and 20%+

Projected PE: 3.28

Projected Peg: 0.16

Projected Yield: 10.82

As was said Please mention a few that beat that?

[robsy2] 26/11/2008 15:31

Yes UBS have upped their stake to over 6%.Why wouldn't you if you had the money and there lies the problem. There is no money!

If in doubt remember the latest reserach note says

Eps forecast growth 1 and 2 years: 40%+ and 20%+

Projected PE: 3.28

Projected Peg: 0.16

Projected Yield: 10.82

As was said Please mention a few that beat that?