Aero Inventory Share Discussion Threads

[curlly] 26/11/2008 15:26

Its good to keep seeing these rns its only a matter of time before these are back to the £4 - £5 mark
If we have a bit of a run i can see £4 this year

[robsy2] 25/11/2008 09:15

THanks Dixies and there it is on the armshare site in black and white. I suppose the note came from Numis. I've been on their site and they have lots of research on AI , lots of notes of meetings etc etc and all published but you have to be a client of theirs and registered to get access to their research but if the note is accurate, then Numis will presumably be advising their clients to buy and buy.

Given the nature of AI's business a research note issued by house brokers who have all the access they need to a bunch of serious people, should be more plausable than most research notes.

On the income side the contracts they have provide long-term certainty, the flying schedules dictate the useage so that make income pretty easy to predict as well.Pricing is agreed so no variance there either. On the cost side again there are not too many wild variables, indeed margins have been remarkably constant over the years so this is fairly predictable. There have been some big increases in costs as they have geared up the operation but there are also big scale economies to come through.
The rating is so low and there is more to come as they realise the full potential of the ones they have.Before the update I was thinking that even if they tread water and do the same as last year, its as cheap as chips. Clearly they are doing 82% better than that already this year so with new contracts to come on board the question is Why is the rating so low?

[dixies] 24/11/2008 22:11

Sorry, I don't have access to the note but the forecasts are from the reliable ArmShare site:
On the left go to companies a-z and look up the company and go to company review. Scroll to the bottom for the forecasts

[robsy2] 24/11/2008 19:25

Bloody Hell! This is a lot better than I could have imagined.Do you have a reference for the brokers note?I'd like to see it.

[dixies] 24/11/2008 19:00

The company broker's note dated 24th November projects EPS of 145.5c for 2008/9 and 176.6c for 2009/10 representing P/Es of 2.6 and 2.1 respectively based on the share price of 250.5p at 24th November and £1 = $1.50.

[robsy2] 24/11/2008 17:31

My back of an envelope calculations, assuming no new contracts, are turnover of about 50m US $ a month(+80%) with fully diluted EPS of the same +80% giving 58 cents, back into sterling at 1.50 US $ rate, gives us 38p , if you double that for the year you get about 80p which is PER 3ish, payout of 30% of earnings gives 24p dividend so I agree the yield at about 10%, so I make peg 53%/ 5 = 0.11.
Amazingly similar to John RX's figures. Perhaps we're using the same envelope?

[sambessey] 24/11/2008 15:42

Well GVC beats the hell out of it for Yield and possible PE, but peg and EPS growth is better here.

I'm long and building stakes in both.

[robsy2] 24/11/2008 12:19

Hi Fellas
John
Where do you get your figures from?

[johnrxx99] 24/11/2008 12:14

It's may be worth repeating, if only to us few,:-

Eps forecast growth 1 and 2 years: 40%+ and 20%+

Projected PE: 3.28

Projected Peg: 0.16

Projected Yield: 10.82

Please mention a few that beat that.

[johnrxx99] 24/11/2008 12:14

It's may be worth repeating, if only to us few,:-

Eps forecast growth 1 and 2 years: 40%+ and 20%+

[johnrxx99] 24/11/2008 12:13

Yes, a very positive and realistic statement. With airlines under the cosh a solid opportunity for the future. Come on BA, get the message.

[robsy2] 24/11/2008 11:29

Fantastic update!
Sales up 82% so far this year.
Contrast the company view of it being "unrealistic to expect the company to be totally unaffected by the downturn with the share price movemnet over the previous year where we have fallen from 750p to 250p. We have fallen from 450p since September.If this doesn't move the share price nothing will!

[martinc] 21/11/2008 23:14

..unless you're China Airlines (I think) who posted a profit warning because 1) oil was too high earlier in the year and then 2) they lost zillions on hedges they took out at the peak when the price came down again. Oops.

[mdj8] 13/11/2008 18:06

Oil back down to 50 bucks a barrel too, so less risk for the airlines. All good stuff. Perhaps at some stage these good things will be reflected in the share price .... you never know!

[robsy2] 13/11/2008 16:51

And.................. check out the LIBOR US $ rates, falling like a stone.
The trends are our friends.Even if airtravel goes down 7% over the recession as predicted , a new contract or two will soon correct that, the 12p divi is in the bag, borrowing costs are down, static earnings equals 30% increase in sterling terms, the directors are buying, dollar is strong and getting stronger,EPS next year? no idea but same divi equals yield of 6% plus Looking good in a negative market.
Yours having had good lunch
R2

Date 1m 3m 6m 1yr
12 Nov 08 1.40875 2.13250 2.52500 2.68250
11 Nov 08 1.47750 2.17500 2.54500 2.70750
10 Nov 08 1.53875 2.23500 2.62125 2.79250
07 Nov 08 1.62250 2.29000 2.63875 2.80000
06 Nov 08 1.76750 2.38750 2.69875 2.84125
05 Nov 08 1.95625 2.50625 2.82375 2.96875
04 Nov 08 2.17750 2.70625 2.96875 3.10500
03 Nov 08 2.35750 2.85875 3.08500 3.20750
31 Oct 08 2.58125 3.02625 3.12125 3.17375
30 Oct 08 2.85000 3.19250 3.26500 3.28188
29 Oct 08 3.11750 3.42000 3.42750 3.42125
28 Oct 08 3.17125 3.46500 3.48000 3.49000
27 Oct 08 3.21875 3.50750 3.51250 3.49750
24 Oct 08 3.24000 3.51625 3.52750 3.50875
23 Oct 08 3.25875 3.53500 3.53000 3.50250
22 Oct 08 3.27500 3.54125 3.48250 3.42375
21 Oct 08 3.52750 3.83375 3.70000 3.60188
20 Oct 08 3.75125 4.05875 3.82875 3.71250
17 Oct 08 4.18125 4.41875 4.13000 3.97250
16 Oct 08 4.27750 4.50250 4.17875 3.97875
15 Oct 08 4.35875 4.55000 4.22125 4.03375
14 Oct 08 4.46875 4.63500 4.25500 4.06000
13 Oct 08 4.56000 4.75250 4.37625 4.13125
10 Oct 08 4.58750 4.81875 4.39375 4.16875
09 Oct 08 4.51250 4.75000 4.37500 4.23375
08 Oct 08 4.29375 4.52375 4.10750 3.99375
07 Oct 08 4.14000 4.32000 4.01625 3.90000
06 Oct 08 4.09250 4.28875 4.05250 3.95250
03 Oct 08 4.11000 4.33375 4.13125 4.05750
02 Oct 08 4.04500 4.20750 4.05250 4.02250
01 Oct 08 4.00250 4.15000 4.03750 4.03500

[robsy2] 13/11/2008 16:37

US $ now sub 1.50, £ earnings now up 30% on 2008.

[yf23_1] 12/11/2008 19:37

Record date is normally 2 business days after XD date, what I am pointing out is the wording of the statement. You either give both or state the XD date not just the implied record date.
Its rubbish, you could technically not be on the register on the 14th and stll be due the divi, thus causing confusion when there is none.

[kenbachelor] 12/11/2008 18:50

yf23_1 - XDiv is normally Wednesday and Record Day is normally Friday. Payment date is 11/12/2008

[robsy2] 12/11/2008 09:35

And more. I think this may have gone ex-div today.

[sleveen] 07/11/2008 17:52

I remember the debate from last week ...old age setting in :-)

[robsy2] 07/11/2008 17:31

More directors buys. Classic Buy signal. They want the dividends!

[mdj8] 07/11/2008 17:23

Sleveen, AI.'s facility is in US$ at 3 month US$ LIBOR currently 2.3875% plus 3%.

[sleveen] 07/11/2008 13:38

The three month sterling Libor has fallen to 4.49% from 5.56% according to citywire.