Advanced Oncotherapy Share Discussion Threads

[pj 1] 30/6/2017 19:43

In reality I would guess that Mr Truth has no long positions. He is just here to wind people up. All IMO

[andy] 30/6/2017 19:32

mrtruth,

As SK rightly says, nothing is certain, but during the uncertain phase sitting on the sidelines can be safer.

there's a chart about the cycle of a mining stock, that illustrated perfectly the phases, and when best to sit on the sidelines.

[mrtruth1] 30/6/2017 16:25

Any thoughts on the buy and sell charts today?

[sweet karolina] 30/6/2017 10:37

mrtruth,

There are no certainties either way. Investing is all about risk reward balance and diversifying risk. Try writing down all the bad things that could happen and what the impact would be and when they are likely to happen and how likely they are to happen and do the same with the good things. If you do this honestly even applying a good degree of optimism, it is clear that the risk reward balance is diabolical at this point but if they can survive to Q3 2018 when they might have what could be described as a working prototype then the risk reward balance starts to improve. Up until that point the trend for the shareprice is down, yes there will be some bounces along the way, but ongoing dilution and more and more shares being pumped into the market to keep things going are a 99.99% certainty. If someone were to buy in once a working prototype is genuinely available they would have to pay more than the minimum shareprice this falls to however it would still be a lot less than the current price and they would be buying into a much better risk reward balance. Even from that point there would be still no certainty of success as getting from a working prototype to proving that they have a clinically effective solution compared to the other products that will have been on the market for much longer is still hard and at best they are not going to treat their first patient until 2020.

In short AVO has been marching into the valley of death ever since the Chinese hospitals pulled out. They may well die in the valley, but could one day march out the other side. Surely it makes sense not to go on the downward march, regardless of whether they do end up dying or they manage to crawl out, but to wait and join it when it is clear that they really are marching out again. The share price graph shows you what side of the valley you are on, you will not know that you are truly on the upward march until well after it turns but that is where if there are any rewards to be had they could be realised.

[mrtruth1] 29/6/2017 18:30

Hi Andy. Just to be sure, do you see this as absolutely 0% chance of success for AVO and any shareholder? Literally no chance...?

[andy] 29/6/2017 18:10

mrtruth,

Like I said before, the maths are against it!

If the share price falls to 12p, say, how much of the Bracknor funds will be given back to Bracknor?

So they will need to convert faster, and what will that do to the share price?

That's why they are called death spirals!


Twirl seems to understand it in his post above.

[mrtruth1] 29/6/2017 17:26

Twirl how do you know they can't finish the development?

[vatnabrekk] 29/6/2017 17:24

If they spent a bit less, the shareholders' funds might last a bit longer!

[twirl] 29/6/2017 17:08

Basically the Directors know that they cannot finish the development of LIGHT but want to use shareholder funds to make as much progress as possible so that there is less to do after they have done a pre pac. IMHO

[vatnabrekk] 29/6/2017 15:50

That's ridiculous given the dire financial situation of the company.
And how do they manage to burn over £1M per month? That seems to be a bit over the top.

[andy] 28/6/2017 10:09

igbert,

Wow, that's some remuneration, I wonder what duties the "family member" performs for that salary?

I suspect Tom may be all over that later.

Someone should certainly ask the question at the AGM.

[igbertsponk] 27/6/2017 11:07

Oddly, there is no commitment for the lease of Harley Street disclosed in Note 32. One wonders how they were able to pledge the lease as an asset when they don't even recognise it!

Oh, and check out Note 31 "In May 2014, a contract of employment was entered into with a family member of Dr Michael Sinclair, Executive Chairman. The terms and conditions of employment and remuneration were negotiated and agreed upon by the Remuneration Committee. The remuneration and benefits payable under the contract, excluding Company statutory and other costs, were £269,265".

So he's getting his missus or son or whatever paid even more than any of the Board!

Care Capital was the shell that AVO reversed into. Not suspicious.

[mrtruth1] 27/6/2017 10:01

All buys so far today

[werty5] 27/6/2017 09:56

Mr truth why not wait until a upwards trend appears. This is still on a downwards trend line.

[andy] 27/6/2017 09:52

mrtruth,

Good luck to you if you do.

[mrtruth1] 27/6/2017 08:38

I'm surprised too. It's tempted me to just top up again (not a huge amount but worth the risk IMO!)

[andy] 27/6/2017 00:21

mrtruth,

I'm totally bemused by the rise today, IMO it should have fallen, and probably will again soon, it's the maths that's working against shareholders here.

If you work out the maths of a Bracknor conversion at, say 14p, with the penalty AVO are paying because it's under 25p (a scandal in itself, IMO) then AVO are receiving less and less from the tranches.

[mrtruth1] 26/6/2017 23:58

Any thoughts as to why though?

[vatnabrekk] 26/6/2017 21:17

Sense?
No!

[mrtruth1] 26/6/2017 17:43

Anyone make sense of the decent share price rise today?

[igbertsponk] 26/6/2017 15:41

They didn't get a paycut, just no bonuses awarded.

[pj 1] 26/6/2017 15:40

Is the going concern statement from year end. or the signing off date?

There is something not right if the Co is fully funded but Directors taking a 40% remuneration reduction. That just does not happen.

[igbertsponk] 26/6/2017 15:29

" Based on the forecasts the Directors believe that no further
fund raising will be required in order to achieve its plan. Accordingly the
Financial Statements have been prepared on a going concern basis"

Brave statement.