Ramsdens Share Discussion Threads

[podgyted] 26/2/2024 21:43

Copy "Downing IT outlines its wind-up plan" into Google.

[pugugly] 26/2/2024 21:35

muzmanoz> Many thanks for link - OK protected for IC subscribers only but good link to fund

As behind firewall do they suggest timelines for the liquidation of the balance of fund. As the fund was worth some £30 million on 30th Jan and had cash and net assets of approx £8.4 million balance some £21.6 million of relatively illiquid shares could be or likely be a drag on their share prices. As you have noted for Ramsdens. .

[muzmanoz] 26/2/2024 19:07

hTtps://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2024/02/13/downing-it-outlines-its-wind-up-plan/#:~:text=Downing%20Strategic%20Micro%2DCap%20Investment,meeting%20on%2028%20February%202024.

[lammylover] 26/2/2024 18:50

Market makers also playing their normal games - late declared trades slipped in after the market closed. Today it was 81,125 shares sold at 10.17 for 168p.

I guess the good news is that another 81,125 shares were sold (and bought!) and today, the total volume was 318,168 shares traded.

The bigger the volume day, the better I like it!! Eventually our big seller "friends" will be done and dusted...

[lammylover] 26/2/2024 16:40

Must be desperate to sell. Someone dropped 5k share at 166p just before close. Then MMs sold 5000 to a PI at 175.25, 9 mins later - A nice £500 profit.

I wish the sellers would just drop a load much cheaper - I'm happy to take a load at quid off their hands, to save them some stress!!

[riverman77] 26/2/2024 12:33

Yes I believe Downing held around 10% when they last reported, but must be lower now. Shifting that amount of stock in this market won't be easy.

[hpcg] 26/2/2024 12:23

I have some cash on the sidelines now for allocation here. I did buy some last week but that was a bit too soon it turns out. Of course timing this is difficult because the supply seems to last forever and then just stops.

[muzmanoz] 26/2/2024 10:51

I'm guessing Downing winding down the DSM fund isn't helping here.

[lammylover] 26/2/2024 09:52

you're right RCT, its 10.4p. Sorry my error

[rcturner2] 26/2/2024 09:49

The dividend is higher than that.

[lammylover] 26/2/2024 09:44

BaseM1 - RFX has never been rated a "growth stock", although it has grown (revenue up 27% in last year) and will continue to grow, albeit slightly slower!

The key metrics here are:

Market Capex at £1.80 = £56.97m
Net cash = £5.039m
Pre tax profit = £10.1m
Dividend = 10.1p (5.6% yield)

So if you were wealthy enough, you could buy this business, and it would pay for itself in about 5 years!!!!

A screaming bargain - we just need to wait for the 2 funds who are selling / closing to clear their positions and share price will rise again. Unfortunately many Private Investors have sold their positions at rock bottom prices, due to fear that there is something amiss.

The only risks here in my opinion are
a) People no longer buying high end watches (we've seen this with WOSG), but we know people bought cheaper watches / jewellery instead.
b) Higher energy costs (not coming down) and higher minimum wages - both recognised by the Board in their RNS updates.
c) Gold price dropping if conflict in Gaza / Ukraine cease, hopefully.

Against that there are loads of positives
a) Demand for pawnbrokers
b) RFX have added more shops including in S East and moved to better parts of towns when leases came up for renewal, for better footfall.
c) More people travelling abroad should increase demand for FX
d) No debt, profitable business with good dividend. I see this as the type of business that small investors will pile back into when the BoE drop base rate and banks / buildings societies drop savings account rates.

[basem1] 25/2/2024 17:31

I have always been a fan of this stock but I am afraid to say it is now ex growth I know a couple of fellow holders and they think the same I will watch with interest to see how the next 12 months figures pan out. Good luck to all longs

[lammylover] 23/2/2024 11:47

The Chancellor will address this in the Spring budget (6 March)in my view. He's got to fire up London again to stop firms being listed elsewhere and to restart IPOs that generate income for Bank, brokers, lawyers etc. We know the huge tax and wealth generated by the City for the UK economy, compared to the rest of the UK.

I'm expecting either a cut on the stamp duty to buy shares to zero; and / or a "UK listed company ISA" that either allows you to put more in than £20K a year. This will get private investors putting money back into UK and AIM.

He alternatively may cut the allowance for ISAs invested in firms listed outside London; lets face it why are we giving tax breaks for investors, investing away from the UK?

[hpcg] 23/2/2024 10:18

No one can invest on the basis of a special dividend. This "All they seem to do is allow sellers more liquidity to sell" is a feature not a bug. Firstly it gives everyone confidence that if they buy then they can always sell tomorrow. Secondly, its what we are experiencing now. There is a large seller. There are few buyers because shares with negative momentum are extremely unattractive. It is part of the reason the London stock markets is dying and every couple of weeks another company announces it is leaving.

[lammylover] 23/2/2024 09:39

Personally I'm not keen on share buybacks. All they seem to do is allow sellers more liquidity to sell, and to improve the EPS for the Directors to get better bonuses. They hardly ever seem to improve the share price.

I'd much rather have special dividends, if there is cash to spare or pay off debt where companies have debt (obviously not the case with RFX)

As I've said before, its just a waiting game. When joe public sees the UK economy improving and bank interest rates start to drop as base rate falls, they will return to shares looking for better returns.

[yump] 23/2/2024 09:35

Nvidia will get overblown once everyone is talking about it. Just like the dotcom bubble.

[hpcg] 23/2/2024 09:16

Lammylover, riverman - I agree. We had a snap shot of almost current trading a month ago, and it chimed with other things we know in the market, for example watches struggling. There isn't hidden information that someone in the market knows. On the other hand we do know that micro cap funds are closing and the likes of Nvidia are absorbing a huge amount of investment capital from around the world. This being the case cash generating, dividend paying companies will need to alter their returns model, reduce the dividend and divert some to share buybacks.

[lammylover] 23/2/2024 07:26

Absolutely 100% agree riverman - Same thing happened at MEGP, with Fidelity selling off their MEGP shares and driving down the share price 35%. Then results are published (exactly as per trading update and guidance a couple of months ago) and the share price lifts 20% in a day and everyone wants to buy in!

The reality is that there are few private investors buying AIM at the moment, either haven't got cash; putting money into building societies paying 5% interest or just scared about UK economic climate.

And that pretty sad really, as there are loads of absolute bargains to be found; great small companies producing record results, but unloved by the general public.

Of course, once it becomes clear that the UK economy is growing again and the funds start to buy again, joe public will also get involved - but by then the bargains will have gone..

[riverman77] 22/2/2024 20:12

Possible but very much doubt it - don't assume the market knows everything and that every move has a rational explanation - certainly not in the UK small cap space. Far more likely it's due to a combination of forced selling from funds and panic selling from clueless private investors, and not enough buyers able to mop it up. The fact is there are very few natural buyers of UK small caps in the current environment.

[doobz] 22/2/2024 20:04

It’s very cheap, but to the point I’m wondering if the market knows something I don’t now

[lammylover] 22/2/2024 14:02

Added more at £1.75 BARGAIN!!

[pugugly] 21/2/2024 08:52

Romford 5 miles from Ilford