NORDIC MORNING BRIEFING: Sweden CPI in Focus

By Jens Hansegard

 
 
TODAY'S CALENDAR - All times GMT 
Nordic Macro 
 
0730 Sweden CPI July 
0800 Norway Retail Sales June 
 
Other Macro 
 
0600 Germany CPI July 
0700 Spain CPI July 
0900 Eurozone Industrial 
production June 
0900 Germany ZEW index August 
1230 U.S. Retail sales July 
 
Nordic Equities 
 
N/A Bure 2Q 
N/A Coloplast 3Q 
0530 Raisio 2Q 
0600 Cramo 2Q 
0600 Pandora 2Q 
 
Other Equities 
 
N/A Thyssenkrupp 
 
 
IN FOCUS: 

Tuesday Nordic investors will look at Swedish inflation data for July in the morning. According to a poll by Dow Jones Newswires, the average analyst expects CPI to have fallen 0.2% on the month but to have remained unchanged compared with a year ago.

At 0800 GMT investors will look to Norway for the release of July's retail sales figures after Norwegian core CPI surprised on the upside last week.

Outside the Nordics, investors will examine two important international releases. First out is the German ZEW index and in the afternoon U.S. retail sales will be in market focus, especially after the dollar's recent weakening amid the debate on tapering.

Nordea expects U.S. retail sales for July to point to a slight pick-up in spending growth in July compared with June.

A batch of Nordic companies report earnings Tuesday, including Danish jewelry company Pandora. On July 30, the company upgraded its full-year earnings guidance.

 
FOREX: 
EUR/NOK 
Latest 0150 GMT 7.8093-196 
Previous 2150 GMT 7.8044-145 
%Chg +0.06 
 
EUR/SEK 
Latest 0150 GMT 8.6813-910 
Previous 2150 GMT 8.6780-896 
%Chg +0.06 
 
USD/NOK 
Latest 0150 GMT 5.8742-812 
Previous 2150 GMT 5.8684-752 
%Chg +0.10 
 
 
USD/SEK 
Latest 0150 GMT 6.5303-68 
Previous 2150 GMT 6.5252-331 
%Chg +0.07 
 
 
NORDIC CURRENCIES: 

Currency investors will have a slew of data to digest this Tuesday.

Locally the most important release will be Swedish CPI data at 0730 GMT. A poll by Dow Jones Newswires sees inflation down further in July. The average analyst polled expects CPI down 0.2% on the month and staying flat on the year. Several analysts attribute the development to the prices in clothing sector, which seasonally weigh on inflation.

While CPI is expected to be down for a second month in a row, Karl Steiner, currency strategist at SEB, said he believed that we will see probably see a larger market reaction to Wednesday's industrial production data.

Nordea says consistently low inflation is unlikely to lead to more rate cuts, "but will no doubt test the Riksbank's pedagogical skills."

At 0800 GMT investors will look to Norway for the release of July's retail sales figures after Norwegian core CPI surprised on the upside on Friday.

Later in the day investors will examine two important international releases, first the German ZEW index and later in the day US retail sales. Nordea said they expect US retail sales "to point towards a slight pick‐up in spending growth in July after sluggishness in June."

STOCK INDEXES: 
 
OMXN40  1182.60   +1.43   +0.1% 
OMXS30  1253.69   -0.10   -0.1% 
OBX     460.65    -0.59   -0.1% 
OMXC20  562.73    +2.30   +0.4% 
OMXH25  2442.54   +11.36  +0.5% 
 
Brent  $108.95    -0.02   0.0% 
 
NORDIC MARKETS: 

Among companies reporting earnings Tuesday is Danish jewellery company Pandora. On July 30, the company upgraded its full-year earnings guidance, citing continued strong sales of newly launched products across all regions.

Analysts expect Pandora's sales to have risen 39% compared with last year and say the brand has a strong position and that it does well in delivering new collections.

Other companies reporting Tuesday are Finnish food processing company Raisio and Finnish equipment rental company Cramo. Last quarter, Cramo said it is taking a cautious approach to 2013.

Danish medical supplies manufacturer Coloplast also reports earnings on Tuesday. Deutsche Bank has said in a recent note that it still considers shares in Coloplast are undervalued, noting increasing penetration of products in countries like the U.S.

Swedish investment company Ratos trades ex dividend.

ENERGY: 

Crude-oil futures prices traded little changed Tuesday ahead of direction from U.S. economic and oil-demand data in the coming days.

Analysts said the trading pattern mimics the oil-market signals that hint at both supply tightness and the potential for near-term oversupply, as refiner demand for crude begins to slip and the U.S. peak driving season winds down with gasoline inventories at 24-year highs.

"We are really in a hold-steady pattern," said Matt Smith, analyst at Schneider Electric. "The market's biding its time before the data."

Nymex was off 7 cents at $106.04 and Brent eased 2 cents lower to $108.95.

NEWS ROUNDUP: 

FINLAND: Konecranes Oyj (KCR1V.HE), a Finnish crane maker, said Monday it will start statutory negotiations in Finland regarding possible temporary and permanent layoffs that could affect up to 90 jobs.

FINLAND: Ramirent Oyj (RMR1V.HE), the Finnish equipment rental company, said it has signed a letter of intent with YIT Equipment Ltd and Caverion PLC for the outsourcing of the equipment, operations and personnel related to Caverion operations in Finland to Ramirent.

NORWAY: DOF ASA (DOF.OS), a Norwegian offshore engineer, said that the joint venture between DOF Subsea and Technip (TEC.FR) has been awarded four contracts by Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR) worth a total of NOK10 billion to the DOF Group.

SWEDEN: Skanska AB (SKA-B.SK), a Swedish construction company, said it has signed a $189 million contract to supply and erect steel for the U.S. transit project Transbay Transit Center in San Francisco, CA. Skanska also said it had signed a $78 million contract with the American University in Washington D.C. and a $53 million contract with the University of Kentucky.

-Write to Jens Hansegard at [e-mail]

(Johannes Ledel in Stockholm contributed to this report.)