UPDATE: Coach Shares Fall After Company Reduces Forecast

By Andria Cheng

NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- Joining a chorus of other retailers, luxury leather-goods seller Coach Inc. shares fell 8.6% in pre-market trading after the company said late Thursday second-quarter profit would fall short of its previous guidance after a disappointing holiday season.

The New York-based handbag and accessories maker (COH) said it expects a second-quarter profit of about 67 cents a share, below its previous forecast of 77 cents a share and less than the year-earlier profit of 69 cents a share. Sales in the quarter ended Dec. 27 fell 2% to $960 million.

The company had forecast second-quarter sales would rise to about $1.05 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet Research estimated 75 cents a share on revenue of $1.05 billion. Coach also said it won't provide per-share guidance for the second half of the year in light of the uncertain environment. Coach will release final results on Jan. 21.

North American comparable-store sales declined 13%. That would be the first negative same-store sales Coach reported since the first quarter 2002, according to Credit Suisse analyst Paul Lejuez. Lejuez estimated negative same-store sales for the remainder of fiscal 2009 and 2010. He projected sales at stores open at least a year could drop as much as 24% in the third quarter and as much as 25% in the fourth quarter.

Coach joined other retailers from Gap Inc. (GPS) and Limited Brands Inc. (LTD) to Macy's Inc. (M) and Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) in lowering their forecasts or warning that profits wouldn't meet previous projections after the recession, rising job losses and plunging consumer confidence led shoppers across the board to curtail discretionary spending.

"With the holiday season over, in this environment, we question what will drive consumers to shop at the mall," Lejuez said. "While this is an issue facing most mall-based retailers, we view Coach as particularly at risk because its products are higher ticket and more discretionary."

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