Retail Sales Conceal Encouraging Detail -- Ahead of the Tape

By Steven Russolillo 

American shoppers didn't exactly splurge during the holiday season, but they probably spent more than some pessimistic outlooks suggest.

The headlines that come from the Commerce Department's December retail sales figures, out Friday, aren't expected to be particularly strong. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal estimate overall sales fell by 0.1% on the month, after rising 0.2% in November.

Much of that expected decline was likely energy- and auto-related, though. Gasoline sales have been sliding as pump prices have gotten cheaper. And while 2015 was a banner year for U.S. auto sales, December ended on a relatively weak note.

Amid ho-hum headline forecasts, predictions for the more representative "control group" look much better. Items excluding cars, gasoline and building-material and garden-supply store are expected to rise for an eighth consecutive month. Economists estimate the control group's sales rose 0.3% in December, according to TD Securities, following a 0.6% rise in November.

Another reason for cheer comes courtesy of polling firm Gallup. It surveys adults daily on how much they spent the day before, excluding bills or major purchases. Though not adjusted for seasonal factors, Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $99 in December--the highest monthly average Gallup has reported during the 6 1/2 -year economic recovery.

Cheap energy, a sturdy labor market and rising household wealth have put more money in people's pockets. And while some of that extra change is being retained--the personal-savings rate sits near a three-year high--people also are spending some of that money differently than in the past.

For instance, several retailers and department stores, including Gap Inc. and Macy's Inc., were challenged in the holiday season by high inventories, warm weather and lower spending from international tourists reacting to a strong dollar.

But not all retailers suffered. Earlier this week, Lululemon Athletica Inc. boosted its earnings outlook, quieting skeptics about its holiday performance. And L Brands Inc., owner of Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works, boasted about its "best December ever" after sales at existing locations rose 8% from a year ago.

The upshot: Retail sales should look better than the headlines may suggest.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 14, 2016 13:03 ET (18:03 GMT)

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