U.S. Oil Inventories Likely Declined in DOE Data, Analysts Say -- Update

By Dan Molinski

U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are expected to have fallen from the previous week in data due Wednesday from the U.S. Department of Energy, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

The average of estimates from 10 analysts and traders showed U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are projected to have decreased by 2.2 million barrels for the week ended July 21. Forecasters were nearly unanimous, with nine predicting a decrease and just one forecasting a week-on-week increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 5.5 million barrels to an increase of 1.6 million barrels.

The closely watched inventory data from the DOE's Energy Information Administration are scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

Gasoline inventories are expected to fall by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from decreases of 1 million barrels to 3 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which are mostly diesel fuel, are expected to decline by 600,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 4.5 million barrels to an increase of 1.7 million barrels.

Refinery use likely rose by 0.1 percentage point from the previous week to 94.4%. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.9 percentage point to an increase of 1 percentage point. Two analysts didn't make a forecast.

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the week showed a 1.3-million-barrel increase in crude supplies, a 1-million-barrel decline in gasoline stocks and a 1.6-million-barrel increase in diesel inventories, according to a source.

 
                                   Crude    Gasoline    Distillates    Refinery Use 
Again Capital                       -2.9      -1.8         -2.1           -0.4 
Commodity Research Group            -2        -1           -0.2           -0.9 
Confluence Investment Management    -2.5      -1            0.5           unch 
DTN                                 -1.2      -2.2          0.8            0.3 
Excel Futures                       -1.4      -1.7         -0.6            0.4 
Spartan Capital Securities           1.6      -1.1          0.8            n/f 
Mizuho                              -1        -1            0.5            0.3 
Price Futures Group                 -3        -3           -3              1 
Ritterbusch and Associates          -3.7      -1.5          1.7           -0.2 
Tradition Energy                    -5.5      -2.5         -4.5            n/f 
 
AVERAGE                             -2.2      -1.7         -0.6            0.1 
 

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

Write to Dan Molinski at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 25, 2023 17:11 ET (21:11 GMT)

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