Preview -- Barron's

Monday 1/9

The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for November. In October, total consumer debt increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.9% to a record $4.73 trillion. Revolving credit, which is mostly credit-card debt, jumped 10.4% as more consumers tap credit to pay for living expenses.

Tuesday 1/10

The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for December. Consensus estimate is for a 91.5 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index remains mired near eight-year lows from last summer as small-business owners continue to cite inflation as their No. 1 issue.

Wednesday 1/11

The Mortgage Bankers Association releases its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, for the week ending on Jan. 6. Mortgage activity declined sharply in the second half of last year as interest rates surged. In October, mortgage activity hit a 25-year low.

Thursday 1/12

The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Jan. 7. In December, jobless claims averaged 217,500, still low historically. Despite the many announcements of layoffs in the tech and real estate sectors, the job market remains tight, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics this past week reported the unemployment rate edging down to 3.5%, near a half-century low. The U.S. economy added 4.5 million jobs last year, or about 375,000 a month on average. The second half of 2022 did see a slowing of job growth from the first half's blistering pace but nothing that portends a recession in 2023, which the majority of economists are forecasting.

The BLS releases the consumer price index for December. Economists forecast a 6.5% year-over-year increase, after a 7.1% jump in November. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 5.7%, slightly slower than the 6% rate of growth previously. The CPI peaked at 9.1% in June of 2022, while the core CPI hit its top at 6.6% in September. The past two CPI reports have seen a sharp deceleration in inflation, but the Federal Open Market Committee has stressed that it needs to see many months of data before even considering an end to its interest-rate hiking campaign.

Friday 1/13

Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, First Republic Bank, and UnitedHealth Group release earnings.

The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment index for January. The consensus call is for a 60.5 reading, about one point more than previously. In December, consumer expectations for the year-ahead inflation hit an 18-month low of 4.4%.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 06, 2023 21:45 ET (02:45 GMT)

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