Four North American Producers With Prospects -- Barron's

Credit Suisse

Long-term investors can find good opportunities in North American producers based on the shorter duration limited downside to a down-cycle but relative value and long/short investors have a more challenging view.

And, while we are of little help calling oil prices and bottoms, we have compiled some ideas for pair trades based on the current market rather than typical "conventional wisdom" of playing an oil-price move, up or down.

Anadarko Petroleum (ticker: APC)/Apache ( APA) -- We believe Anadarko shares are poised to Outperform Apache as we believe Anadarko will be able to sustain middle-single-digit production growth even at oil prices below $80 per barrel. On the other hand, we believe Apache could be poised to reduce its spending and growth rate given the impact of lower commodity prices. In our view, there are more company specific catalysts (commercialization of the Delaware Basin, second appraisal well at Shenandoah, value acceleration potential from Minerals, wet gas potential, and Mozambique) for Anadarko.

Devon Energy ( DVN)/Southwestern Energy ( SWN) -- Within the context of a cautious near-term outlook for exploration and production firms (E&Ps) given oil price risk through first-half 2015, we believe Devon is well positioned to Outperform...given its defensive valuation, top quartile oil growth largely within cash flows, and further accretion potential from [joint venture] EnLink Midstream. Given the valuation discrepancy between Devon and Southwestern, we believe Devon shares are poised to outperform Southwestern, particularly given the potential for a looming equity raise at Southwestern plus rapidly deteriorating natural gas fundamentals. While we applaud Southwestern management for making a bold acquisition that plays to the company's core strength, we believe it comes at too high of a purchase price as the transaction looks meaningfully dilutive to our net asset value (NAV) and cash flow forecasts.

Marathon Oil ( MRO)/ConocoPhillips ( COP) -- A key driver of the cash flow growth and margin expansion at both ConocoPhillips and Marathon is a low cost "core of the core" Eagle Ford position and core Bakken position. Both companies reiterated that they could deliver growth at lower prices, partly based on low break-even shale and for ConocoPhillips some major projects in [joint venture] Australia Pacific LNG, heavy oil and offshore that are nearing completion. As cash margins and volumes expands, the break-even oil price for both company's cash cycle falls. Both companies have substantial flexibility to dial up and down activity at different oil prices, given shale is mainly held by production (HBP). However, we would argue Marathon shares trade at a wider discount to NAV, on lower cash flow multiples, have greater per share exposure to low-cost "core of the core" shales (Eagle Ford, Bakken and the Emerging South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (Scoop) play), have international assets that are long-lived in nature and a better balance sheet after the Norway sale. The market is still digesting the positive news on shale inventory from the Barclays' conference and the very strong actual shale performance in the third quarter. Marathon has a better rate of change.

Diamondback Energy ( FANG)/Whiting Petroleum ( WLL) -- We argue Diamondback is drilling some of the best wells in U.S. onshore E&P and expect the market to increasingly look for shelter in the best shale in the declining oil price environment. Conversely, we do not think returns on Whiting's legacy inventory hold up well in a sub-$80 oil environment.

-- James Wicklund

-- Edward Westlake

-- Arun Jayaram

-- Mark Lear

-- Gregory Lewis

-- Jonathan Sisto

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