MARKET SNAPSHOT: Retail Sales Data To Confirm Tone Of Holiday Shopping

By Wallace Witkowski, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- With gas prices at multiyear lows and consumer sentiment at multiyear highs, retail sales data will likely be the main catalyst for stocks this week.

The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed at record levels on Friday, wrapping a seventh straight week with gains on a strong jobs report.

Last week, reports circulated that Thanksgiving holiday sales had fallen 11%. While that figure came under dispute, it could indicate a lackluster shopping season, especially considering that U.S. households could be saving as much as $1,100 a year if current gas prices hold. In fact, gas prices could fall even further.

The Commerce Department is scheduled to report November retail sales data on Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect a consensus of 0.2% growth. In October, sales snapped back to offset a September decline.

"The week after nonfarm payrolls is slow, so we're left with retail sales, that's the big number of the week," said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG.

"With gas prices doing what they're doing, you'd like to see core sales get a healthy bump," he added. A disappointing read for November could shake up markets, and put pressure on S&P 500 retailer stocks, many of which are up 10% or more in the fourth quarter to date.

Here's a recap of Black Friday's winners and losers.

A smattering of earnings on the week

Only four S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings this week: H&R Block Inc. (HRB) and AutoZone Inc. (AZO) on Tuesday, Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) on Wednesday, and Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) on Thursday.

Other economic data this week includes NFIB's November small business index, October job openings, and October wholesale inventories data on Tuesday.

Along with weekly jobless claims and retail data, November import prices and October business inventories data are released on Thursday.

Also this Friday, a read of December consumer sentiment comes out. November's reading showed sentiment levels at their highest in more than seven years.

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