U.S. Dollar Extends Decline After Fed Minutes, Payroll Revisions

The U.S. dollar extended decline against its major counterparts in the New York session on Wednesday, as the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting reinforced expectations for a rate cut in September.

The minutes showed that vast majority of participants believed it would "likely be appropriate" to lower rates at the next meeting if inflation data continued to come in "about as expected."

While the minutes also said almost all participants felt additional data was needed to provide "greater confidence" inflation is moving sustainably toward the Fed's 2 percent target, they viewed the incoming data as "enhancing their confidence."

"Almost all participants observed that the factors that had contributed to recent disinflation would likely continue to put downward pressure on inflation in coming months," the Fed said.

Fed officials unanimously agreed to leave interest rates unchanged at the meeting, although the minutes noted several participants observed that the progress on inflation and increases in the unemployment rate had provided a plausible case for reducing the target range by 25 basis points at the July meeting.

Revised data from the Labor Department showed that job growth in the U.S. was weaker than previously reported in the twelve months ended March 2024.

The U.S. economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from March 2023 to March 2024 than initially reported, reflecting 0.5 percent weaker job growth.

After the release of the minutes, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 59.5 percent of a quarter point rate cut next month and a 40.5 percent chance of a half point rate cut.

The greenback fell to more than 1-year lows of 1.1174 against the euro and 1.3119 against the pound, from yesterday's close of 1.1129 and 1.3029, respectively.

The greenback dropped to more than a 2-week low of 0.8495 against the franc and a 2-week low of 144.45 against the yen, from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.8540 and 145.25, respectively.

The greenback weakened to a fresh 5-week low of 0.6761 against the aussie, more than 2-month low of 0.6178 against the kiwi and more than a 4-month low of 1.3575 against the loonie, from Tuesday's closing quotes of 0.6741, 0.6152 and 1.3620, respectively.

The greenback is likely to find support around 1.13 against the euro, 1.33 against the pound, 0.83 against the franc, 141.00 against the yen, 0.68 against the aussie, 0.63 against the kiwi and 1.34 against the loonie.