NZ Dollar Drops As Dairy Woes Trigger Rate Cut Speculation

The New Zealand dollar weakened against the other major currencies in the Asian session on Thursday, as a slide in dairy prices raised speculation over further rates cut.

International dairy prices fell to a six-year low in the Fonterra's GlobalDairyTrade auction overnight. The GDT price index dropped 5.9 percent, while whole milk powder sank 10.8 percent.

Meanwhile, analysts slashed forecast payouts after milk prices fell for the eighth time in a row at the overnight auction.

The average sale price at this morning's auction was US$2276 a tonne, down from US$2409 at the previous fortnightly auction.

As the weaker dairy prices weigh on New Zealand's economy, traders began speculating that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to cut its interest rate again later this month. The bank had lowered rates last month by 25 basis points.

RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said earlier that a weak dairy sector is one of three key risks to the nation's financial stability. Also, a quarter of farmers were operating in negative cash flow.

Traders now focus on the developments on the Greek debt crisis front and also keep a close eye on the Labor Department's U.S. monthly jobs report. The report is being released a day earlier than usual due to the July 4th holiday.

Economists currently expect the report to show an increase of about 230,000 jobs in June following the jump of 280,000 jobs reported for May. The unemployment rate is also expected to dip to 5.4 percent.

In other economic news, New Zealand's commodity prices fell for the third successive month in June due to lower aluminum prices, although the rate of decline slowed when compared to the previous month, the results of survey by ANZ showed.

The ANZ commodity price index decreased 3.1 percent month-over-month in June, following a 4.9 percent drop in May.

Wednesday, the NZ dollar showed mixed trading against its major rivals. While the NZ dollar fell against the U.S. dollar, it rose against the euro. Meanwhile, the NZ dollar held steady against the yen and the Australian dollar.

In the Asian trading today, the NZ dollar fell to a 5-year low of 0.6693 against the U.S. dollar and nearly a 2-year low of 1.1413 against the Australian dollar, from yesterday's closing quotes of 0.6731 and 1.1343, respectively. On the downside, 0.65 against the greenback and 1.15 against the aussie are seen as the next support level for the kiwi.

Against the yen and the euro, the kiwi dropped to 2-day lows of 82.56 and 1.6513 from yesterday's closing quotes of 82.91 and 1.6404, respectively. If the kiwi extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 81.00 against the yen and 1.67 against the euro are seen as the next support levels for the kiwi.

Looking ahead, U.K. Nationwide house price index for June is due to be release at 2:00 am ET. Additionally, U.K. CIPS/Markit construction PMI for June and Eurozone PPI for May are also slated for release.

In the New York session, U.S. weekly jobless claim for the week ended June 27, U.S. jobs data for June and factory orders for May are set to be announced.