NZ Dollar Slides As New Zealand Trade Deficit Rises

The New Zealand dollar continued to be weak against other major currencies in the Asian session on Monday, after data showed that New Zealand trade deficit rose more than expected in August. Meanwhile, speculation triggered that the Reserve Bank is likely to cut the official cash rate in November.

Data from Statistics New Zealand showed that New Zealand had a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$1.265 billion in August. This missed forecasts for a shortfall of NZ$735 million following the NZ$433 million deficit in July.

Exports were worth NZ$3.39 billion, shy of forecasts for NZ$3.60 billion, and down from NZ$3.96 billion in the previous month. Imports came in at NZ$4.65 billion versus expectations for NZ$4.30 billion and up from NZ$4.40 billion a month earlier.

The currency weakness continued after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reinforced last Thursday that further easing would be necessary despite rapid growth in the economy. RBNZ governor Graeme Wheeler maintained the OCR at a record low 2 percent at the last week's policy meeting.

Last Friday, the NZ dollar fell 0.98 percent against the U.S. dollar, 0.71 percent against the yen, 1.08 percent against the euro, and 0.73 percent against the aussie.

In the Asian trading, the NZ dollar fell to a 5-week low of 72.83 against the yen, nearly a 5-week low of 1.5552 against the euro, and nearly a 4-week low of 0.7220 against the U.S. dollar, from Friday's closing quotes of 73.11, 1.5486 and 0.7239, respectively. If the kiwi extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 71.00 against the yen, 1.57 against the euro, and 0.71 against the greenback.

Against the Australian dollar, the kiwi dropped to 1.0538 from Friday's closing value of 1.0516. The kiwi is likely to find support around the 1.07 region. Looking ahead, the German Ifo business climate index for September and U.K. BBA mortgage approvals for August are due to be released later in the day.

At 4:30 am ET, European Central Bank's executive board member Yves Mersch and Swiss National Bank Governing Board Chairman Thomas Jordan are expected to speak at Sibos 2016 financial industry conference, in Geneva.

In the New York session, U.S. new home sales data for August is slated for release.

At 8:30 am ET, European Central Bank's member of the supervisory board, Ignazio Angeloni, speaks at a conference "Strengths and Weaknesses of European Banking" organized by Brevan Howard Centre and Imperial College Business School, in London.

At 9:00 am ET, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of European Parliament, in Brussels.

At 9:30 am ET, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat moderated by Harry Melander, president of the Minnesota Building and Construction Trades Council and board member of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, in Minneapolis, U.S.

Fifteen minutes later, European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio is expected to speak at a conference, in Frankfurt.

At 11:45 am ET, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo will deliver a speech titled "Next Steps in the Evolution of Stress Testing" at the Yale School of Management Leaders Forum, in New Haven.

At 12:00 pm ET, Austrian National Bank Governor and ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is expected to speak on the future of banks, in Vienna.

At 1:30 pm ET, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participate in moderated Q&A before the Independent Bankers Association of Texas Annual Convention, in Dan Antonio.