North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Rise Ahead of PCE Inflation Report

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Personal Income for October; Weekly Jobless Claims; Chicago Business Barometer -- ISM-Chicago Business Survey -- Chicago PMI for November; Pending Home Sales for October; Canada GDP for September; Earnings from Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Consumers Likely Pulled Back Spending in October

- CFOs See Ongoing Pain From Foreign Exchange Oscillations

- Why No One Wants to Pay for the Green Transition

Opening Call:

Stock futures were looking to finish November on an upbeat note on Thursday as traders eyed important inflation data.

Easing price pressures in recent months have helped propel the S&P 500 up 8.5% just in November, with bond yields tumbling as the market bets the Federal Reserve can begin cutting borrowing costs by spring 2024.

Consequently, equity investors will be hoping the PCE report will support that bullish narrative.

"Indices are on course to chalk up their best month of the year in November. Data points and commentary from the Fed have largely reinforced the idea that the current rate hiking cycle is at its end," AJ Bell said.

Premarket Movers

Nutanix was up 8.3% after adjusted earnings and revenue in its fiscal first quarter topped estimates.

Occidental Petroleum is in talks to buy CrownRock , The Wall Street Journal reported. The deal for the closely held company could be valued well above $10 billion including debt, according to the Journal. Shares fell 0.7%.

Pure Storage was down 15% after the company issued disappointing revenue guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year.

Synopsys beat fiscal fourth-quarter analysts' estimates for adjusted profit and sales and the company's guidance for its first quarter topped expectations. Shares were rising 1.7%.

Tesla is scheduled to host its Cybertruck delivery event on Thursday in Austin, Texas. Shares were up 1%.

Wednesday's Post-Close Movers

PVH lowered its revenue expectations for the year and said it expects to report a decline in sales in the fourth quarter. Shares dropped 5.5%.

Salesforce on Wednesday reported a surge in both third-quarter profit and projected earnings ahead of Wall Street estimates for the current quarter. Shares rose 8.7%.

Snowflake third-quarter adjusted earnings came in better than expected and the company's guidance for fiscal fourth-quarter product revenue of $716 million to $721 million topped estimates of $696 million. Shares rose 9.6%.

Weibo commenced an offering of ADRs, which it intends to loan to an affiliate of the offering's underwriter. Shares fell 6%.

Forex:

The dollar was higher, rebounding after recent losses, but strong upcoming activity data could be needed for it to continue rising, ING said.

"U.S. activity data needs to do the heavy lifting in a dollar recovery by reviving bond bears."

Weekly jobless claims and personal spending data could be worth watching, ING said, adding that if Fed officials push back against increased interest-rate cut expectations this could also support the dollar.

Capital Economics said a key question for currency markets over the next couple of years is how expectations for interest rates--and therefore rate differentials between economies--evolve as the coming easing cycle plays out.

"In other words, how far central banks actually end up cutting rates compared to what is already discounted in money markets."

Capital Economics expects interest rate cuts in G10 economies to be larger than currently discounted in markets.

"As inflation comes back to target next year and growth weakens, we expect policymakers to abandon their 'higher for longer' approach and ease policy," it said, expecting policy rates to revert to roughly neutral setting but not into accommodative territory.

Energy:

Oil prices were around 1% higher ahead of OPEC+'s ministerial meeting, with a rollover of existing curbs still seen as the most likely scenario, but expectations of deeper cuts in an effort to shore up prices are growing among traders.

"Clearly, this growing expectation leaves downside risk for the market if OPEC+ disappoint later today," ING said.

Meanwhile, Chinese PMI figures indicate manufacturing activity contracted further in November, a worrying sign that stimulus efforts are falling short, renewing concerns about oil demand.

Metals:

Metal prices were mixed with investors looking ahead to key macro movers--the OPEC ministerial meeting and PCE inflation data.

Peak Trading Research said markets are bullish, adding that the most positive scenario would be "larger than expected OPEC production cuts and weaker PCE inflation data."

That would lower the dollar and raise crude oil prices, which would in turn boost commodities, Peak added.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

EIG Global Energy Partners Expects New LNG Acquisition Within Months

SYDNEY-U.S. investment firm EIG Global Energy Partners is closing in on a deal for a liquefied natural gas asset worth several billion dollars, as it raises bets on demand for the fuel amid a reordering of energy supply chains triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Chief Executive R. Blair Thomas said EIG's MidOcean Energy unit is working on the deal in parallel with an effort to buy Australia's Origin Energy as part of a consortium led by Brookfield Asset Management. MidOcean would acquire Origin's 27.5% stake in the Australia Pacific LNG project in eastern Australia if the consortium's nearly $11 billion offer for the company is successful.

Cigna-Humana Merger Is Likely to Face Antitrust Challenge

From a financial perspective, a Cigna-Humana megamerger makes a lot of sense.

Cigna has a huge pharmacy benefit management business, but has been largely missing out on the highly lucrative Medicare Advantage industry. Humana has the second largest Medicare Advantage business after UnitedHealth Group. Combining the two businesses would create a healthcare powerhouse that could go toe-to-toe with that industry behemoth.

OpenAI's New Board Takes Over and Says Microsoft Will Have Observer Role

OpenAI's new board formally took over on Wednesday and said it would add an observer role for partner Microsoft, capping a dramatic chapter for the artificial-intelligence startup and launching a new phase of difficult decisions.

The new board's initial three members were decided as part of CEO Sam Altman's return last week after the previous board abruptly fired him. The replacement directors' priorities include creating an independent committee to review the events around Altman's ouster, said Bret Taylor, the board's chairman.

Eurozone Inflation Fell More Than Expected, Putting ECB Rate Cuts Into View

Inflation fell significantly more than expected in the eurozone in November, closing in on the European Central Bank's target, raising the possibility that interest-rate cuts could come sooner than previously expected.

The bloc's consumer price index-a measure of the cost of goods and services-rose 2.4% on year, slowing from 2.9% the previous month, according to preliminary data published by the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat on Thursday.

China's Economy Faces a Sour End to the Year

SINGAPORE-A brief rebound in China's struggling economy showed worrying new signs of flickering out, heaping pressure on Beijing to take bolder steps to rev up growth.

Factory activity slid deeper into contraction in November as domestic and foreign orders dried up, while, in an ominous sign for consumer spending, activity in the services sector shrank for the first time this year, according to business surveys released Thursday. Only construction registered any expansion compared with the previous month as government spending on infrastructure increased.

Israel, Hamas Agree to Extend Truce by One Day

Israel and Hamas agreed to extend the temporary truce by one day, following the release of 16 hostages held by militants in Gaza.

Qatar announced the extension early Thursday.

GOP Officials in Arizona Charged With Conspiring to Delay Election Results

Two Republican county officials in Arizona were charged with felonies Wednesday over their initial refusal to certify the results of the November 2022 midterm elections in which a slate of GOP candidates backed by former President Donald Trump lost.

The indictment, announced by Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes, is the latest instance of Democratic officeholders charging Republican local officials who amplified voter-fraud claims with attempting to undermine democracy.

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TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

BRP 3Q

Can Imp Bank of Comm 4Q

Royal Bank of Canada 4Q

TECSYS 2Q

Toronto-Dominion Bank 4Q

Economic Calendar (ET):

0830 Sep GDP

0830 Q3 Quarterly GDP

0830 Sep Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies

Stocks to Watch:

Northland Power Announces Appointment of Ellen Smith to Its Bd of Directors

Expected Major Events for Thursday

00:01/UK: Oct UK monthly automotive manufacturing figures

00:01/UK: Nov CBI Growth Indicator Survey

01:00/JPN: Oct Steel Imports & Exports Statistics

04:30/JPN: Oct Preliminary Report on Petroleum Statistics

05:00/JPN: Oct Construction Orders

05:00/JPN: Oct Housing Starts

05:00/JPN: Nov Consumer Confidence Survey

07:00/GER: Oct Retail Trade

07:45/FRA: Oct Housing starts

07:45/FRA: Oct Household consumption expenditure in manufactured goods

07:45/FRA: Oct PPI

07:45/FRA: Nov Provisional CPI

07:45/FRA: 3Q GDP - detailed figures

08:55/GER: Nov Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)

09:00/GER: Nov Bavaria CPI

09:00/ITA: Oct Unemployment

10:00/ITA: Nov Provisional CPI

10:00/ITA: Nov Cities CPI

13:00/RUS: Weekly International Reserves

13:30/CAN: Sep Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies

13:30/CAN: Sep GDP

13:30/CAN: 3Q Quarterly GDP

13:30/US: Oct Personal Income and Outlays

13:30/US: 11/25 Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

13:30/US: U.S. Weekly Export Sales

14:45/US: Nov Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

15:00/US: Oct Pending Home Sales Index

15:00/US: Oct Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment

15:30/US: 11/24 EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

17:00/US: Nov Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

20:00/US: Oct Agricultural Prices

21:30/US: Foreign Central Bank Holdings

21:30/US: Federal Discount Window Borrowings

23:30/JPN: Oct Labour Force Survey

23:50/JPN: 3Q Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations

All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.

Expected Earnings for Thursday

Academy Sports & Outdoors Inc (ASO) is expected to report for 3Q.

Ambarella Inc (AMBA) is expected to report $-1.06 for 3Q.

American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) is expected to report for 2Q.

American Woodmark Corp (AMWD) is expected to report $1.65 for 2Q.

Amerityre Corp (AMTY) is expected to report for 1Q.

BRP Inc (DOO.T,DOOO) is expected to report $3.05 for 3Q.

Big Lots (BIG) is expected to report $-4.71 for 3Q.

Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) is expected to report $0.51 for 3Q.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM,CM.T) is expected to report $1.55 for 4Q.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (CBRL) is expected to report $0.66 for 1Q.

Dell Technologies Inc - Class C (DELL) is expected to report $0.96 for 3Q.

Delta Apparel Inc (DLA) is expected to report $0.23 for 4Q.

Domo Inc (DOMO) is expected to report $-0.53 for 3Q.

Duluth Holdings Inc (DLTH) is expected to report $-0.03 for 3Q.

Elastic NV (ESTC) is expected to report for 2Q.

Express Inc (EXPR) is expected to report for 3Q.

Friedman Industries (FRD) is expected to report for 2Q.

Kirkland's Inc (KIRK) is expected to report $-0.56 for 3Q.

Kroger Co (KR) is expected to report $0.89 for 3Q.

Movado Group Inc (MOV) is expected to report $0.70 for 3Q.

PagerDuty Inc (PD) is expected to report for 3Q.

RVL Pharmaceuticals PLC (RVLPQ) is expected to report for 3Q.

Rex American Resources Corp (REX) is expected to report for 3Q.

Royal Bank of Canada (RY,RY.T) is expected to report $2.61 for 4Q.

Salesforce Inc (CRM) is expected to report $1.03 for 3Q.

Samsara Inc (IOT) is expected to report for 3Q.

TECSYS Inc (TCS.T) is expected to report $0.06 for 2Q.

Three Valley Copper Corp (TVC.H.V) is expected to report for 3Q.

Tilly's (TLYS) is expected to report $-0.10 for 3Q.

Titan Machinery (TITN) is expected to report $1.54 for 3Q.

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD,TD.T) is expected to report $1.86 for 4Q.

UiPath Inc (PATH) is expected to report for 3Q.

Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) is expected to report $4.94 for 3Q.

WeWork Inc (WEWKQ) is expected to report for 3Q.

Zumiez (ZUMZ) is expected to report $-0.18 for 3Q.

bebe stores (BEBE) is expected to report for 1Q.

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ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS

Airbnb Cut to Hold From Buy by Jefferies

AvalonBay Raised to Neutral From Underweight by JP Morgan

Carlyle Group Cut to In-Line From Outperform by Evercore ISI Group

Constellation Energy Cut to Neutral From Buy by Seaport Global

Hershey Cut to Neutral From Overweight by Piper Sandler

Leslie's Cut to Neutral From Buy by Goldman Sachs

NetApp Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by Northland Capital Markets

Petco Health & Wellness Cut to Equal-Weight From Overweight by Wells Fargo

RBC Bearings Raised to Buy From Underperform by B of A Securities

Rover Group Cut to Market Perform From Market Outperform by JMP Securities

Rover Group Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by William Blair

Splunk Cut to Hold From Buy by Truist Securities

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 30, 2023 06:12 ET (11:12 GMT)

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