It feels like the year just started, but we’re already halfway through, meaning it’s time to take stock.

Let’s start by saying that geopolitical tensions and trade wars remain unresolved, and the Federal Reserve is still not rushing to lower rates. So while there have been some minor developments here and there, the big issues weighing on investors haven’t seen much movement. Despite that, markets didn’t stay down for long.

After a dip in April, most assets rebounded — except oil, which is down 10% year-to-date. As for equities, the S&P 500 has gained 1.8% since January, while the Nasdaq is up 3.9%. This is not a huge jump but a return to positive territory amid all the uncertainty. Bitcoin price, meanwhile, has surged over 17%. 

But the kings of 2025 so far have been gold and silver, which rose 26.8% and 25%, respectively. For the former, the rise was mainly driven by massive central bank buying, ongoing trade instability between the U.S. and China, and expectations of Fed rate cuts, especially after recent data on inflation expectations.

For silver, there is also optimism that U.S.-China negotiations could ease recession fears and revive industrial demand, especially for solar panels, electronics, and autocatalysts. Another tailwind is that the global silver market has been in deficit for five consecutive years due to slow production growth.

Looking ahead, if the U.S. and China reach a trade deal or the Fed cuts rates, risk assets could get another boost. Otherwise, a correction could follow. Adding to the uncertainty, we’re heading into Q2 earnings season, with analysts predicting 4.9% YoY earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, from the 9.3% forecast back in March. If that holds, it’d be the weakest growth since late 2023. And, given that earnings have long been the market’s lifeblood, this slowdown could throw cold water on the market move.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. It should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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