Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[rikky72] 10/5/2024 08:24

Nice progress. Another 9 or 10% and I'm at my target. Could take a month, 6 months plus or never get there. Be happy with the middle option. I suppose more clarity on Zantac in June/ July will help (assuming it's good news).

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/5/2024 17:48

#Zho, my numbers are a little skewed as I re-bought my missing 20% soon after the consolidation and nearly 2 years later the cost/value measure is looking a little better, but it is great to see the progress made in rebuilding the share price post the 4:5 and HLN for free (or the 20% loss)..

[anhar] 08/5/2024 16:52

POR: Isn't Emma such a wonderful lady. Let's hope she stays a long time.

I can't decide whether you mean this or are just taking the french...

[tradermichael] 08/5/2024 15:53

GSK x div next week .... ;0)

[zho] 08/5/2024 15:11

But we only have 4 GSK shares for every 5 held previously!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/5/2024 14:57

Strong recovery here, the share price pre consolidation was GBP17.81 on 18.07.2022, so we have now had the HLN shares for free, plus the dividends from both.. :o)

[pierre oreilly] 08/5/2024 11:24

Isn't Emma such a wonderful lady. Let's hope she stays a long time.

[csalvage] 08/5/2024 11:17

Bernstein raises GSK price target to 2,560 (2,505) pence - 'outperform'

[rikky72] 02/5/2024 16:44

20 month closing high reached, see where we end the week at..

[dplewis1] 02/5/2024 15:59

These sell side analysts are going to be upgrading again soon. Moderna also posted a beat in the US

[dplewis1] 02/5/2024 12:34

BofA Global Research raises target price to 1730p from 1700p

[geckotheglorious] 02/5/2024 09:24

II view

”GSK extends share price rally after very healthy results
The turnaround at this UK pharmaceutical giant continues following these well-received quarterly results. City writer Graeme Evans explains why investors keep chasing the shares higher.

Upgraded guidance and a bigger-than-expected quarterly dividend today moved GSK  shares closer to where they were prior to their summer 2022 Zantac-led crash.

The drugs giant plans to pay shareholders 15p a share on 11 July, which US bank Jefferies said compared with the City consensus of 14.7p and its own 14.5p estimate. Last year’s quarterly dividend was 14p.
The company continues to forecast a full-year payout of 60p a share, which is based on its policy of a 40-60% payout ratio through the investment cycle.

Shares rose 40p to 1,713p, taking gains for this year to 16%, after first-quarter revenues of £7.36 billion topped City hopes by 4% and led to a 16% beat on the earnings per share result of 43.1p.

The improvement was fuelled by strong sales of shingles vaccine Shingrix, which rose 18% to £945 million on the back of immunisation programmes in Australia and Europe, including the UK. It also benefited from earlier than anticipated supply to GSK’s partner in China.

Markets outside the US now represent more than 50% of global Shingrix sales, up from 40% the same quarter a year ago. The vaccine has been launched in 39 countries, the majority of which have average cumulative immunisation rates below 5%.

US sales decreased 7% against tougher comparatives, after the country’s immunisation rate at the end of 2023 reached 37% of the more than 120 million US adults currently recommended to receive Shingrix, up seven percentage points since the end of 2022.

Arexvy, a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine for older adults, recorded sales of £182 million following its launch in the US in the third quarter of last year. More than seven million of the country’s 83 million adults at risk have so far been protected by Arexvy.

In speciality medicines, strong performances in HIV, respiratory and immunology and oncology helped the division’s sales up by 17% to £2.5 billion. Total group sales rose 10% on a constant currency basis, with growth across the first half set to be stronger than the second due to tougher comparisons and the timing of Shingrix sales in China.

GSK’s forecasts for 2024 now point to turnover growth towards the upper part of the 5-7% range and core operating profit growth of 9% to 11% compared with 7-10% previously. Core earnings per share growth of 8% to 10% is up from 6-9% given at 2023 results.

The drugs pipeline now features 72 vaccines and specialty medicines, with 18 assets in the Phase III later stages of development.

Chief executive Emma Walmsley said: “We have made a strong start to 2024, with another quarter of excellent performance and continued pipeline progress, including positive data readouts for four phase III medicines.”

Taken together with other R&D achievements, she said GSK had strengthened its position in its key therapeutic areas of infectious diseases, HIV, respiratory/immunology and oncology.

She added: “We expect this strong momentum to continue, and look forward to delivering another year of meaningful growth in sales and earnings in 2024.”Shares are now within 100p of where they were two years ago prior to the disclosure of US litigation on heartburn drug Zantac. They were just 1,316p in July last year.
Jefferies is backing shares to reach 1,950p. It said today: “We are well above consensus 2026 estimates and believe long-acting HIV injectables, vaccines, and new pipeline launches mean profits likely face a blip not cliff on 2028 HIV patent expiries.

“We argue given this under-appreciated growth profile, the shares offer attractive risk-reward ahead of potential Zantac class action settlement.”

The Zantac issue has overshadowed the company’s attempts to convince the City of its standalone potential since splitting off consumer healthcare operation Haleon  in 2022.

It continues to defend itself against the claims but doing so has taken time, with cases scheduled in Illinois, Texas and Nevada between now and March 2025.

GSK reached a confidential settlement on a trial due to begin last month in California, a move it said reflected the company’s desire to avoid the distraction related to protracted litigation. It did not admit any liability in the settlement and said it would “continue to vigorously defend itself based on the facts and the science in all other Zantac cases”.

[geckotheglorious] 02/5/2024 09:23

Comments from HL and II on ydays results in case anyone interested.

HL
The strong momentum GSK enjoyed last year has carried on into 2024, with revenue and profit guidance both getting upgrades after a strong first quarter.

The financial progress is underpinned by excellence in research & development that spawned four major product approvals last year. There's potential for more significant clinical milestones in 2024. However, there can be no guarantee of continued success. Falling sales of COVID-19 medicines have held back growth but now that they are no longer material, comparatives should become less demanding.

Vaccines are proving to be a key growth driver. Further growth is expected for Shingrix for the prevention of shingles as it targets higher patient acceptance and new markets. The recently approved respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, Arexvy, has made a good start following commercial launch and there's more to go for, but it faces some tough competition.

The group also has a strong presence in HIV treatments which make up about 20% of total revenues. Its newer HIV treatments are a key part of GSK's future, as generic competitors eat away at pricing power for some of the group's legacy treatments. But the group focus for HIV is shifting to the the group’s long-acting innovation therapies. And its these that have helped capture additional market share and drive double-digit growth for the category in the first quarter.

Cancer treatment, although relatively small in terms of current sales, is one key area for future development, with several late-stage programs in the pipeline.

Net debt has been coming down and currently sits at under 1.5x forecast cash profits, which we don't see as a major concern. The strong financial position supports a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%, but remember, no future pay outs to shareholders can be assured.

GSK's valuation is below the long-term average, and significantly less demanding than many of its peers. This may be in part due to remaining question marks over cancer links to its heartburn drug Zantac. Management is working hard to draw a line in the sand, but whilst significant court hearings are still pending, it's likely to remain a key driver of sentiment.

Once more clarity emerges on the scale of any outstanding liability, strong execution of the growth strategy and clinical pipeline are likely to be the key focus for shareholders. So far so good, but remember, the drug approval process is long and expensive, with many treatments never seeing the light of day.

[dplewis1] 02/5/2024 09:19

JP Morgan raises target price to 1660p from 1530p

[patientcapital] 02/5/2024 07:27

Which represents a "staggering" 0.0007% of J&J's present market capitalisation annually over 25 years. Near enough irrelevant.

[alphorn] 01/5/2024 15:29

fwiw. Johnson and Johnson is set to make one of the biggest payouts in history over claims its talc powder causes ovarian cancer. Under the proposed deal, the pharma giant would pay nearly $6.5billion over 25 years to tens of thousands of people who have filed lawsuits against the company.

An order of magnitude???

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/5/2024 14:22

#Anhar, same here, I bought my lost GSK 6:7 consolidation shares back again and kept my HLN too, overall we are moving in the right direction, both are PF keepers for life, HLN making steady progress too..

Target of 2.5X net debt/adjusted EBITDA
FY 2023 leverage of 3.0x net debt/adjusted EBITDA
FY-2022 leverage of 3.6X net debt/adjusted EBITDA

[supermarky] 01/5/2024 14:03

good news today. gsk motoring on up xd before we know it.

[tradermichael] 01/5/2024 11:04

..... and GSK goes ex-dividend again on 16 May .... ;0)

[anhar] 01/5/2024 10:23

Not bad figures generally and the modest net borrowing reduction is welcome as they have long been drowning in debt, but as an income investor I'm still feeling the effect of the large cut since the old GSK 80p payout in 21, the last full pre-demerger year. The intended 60p divi for 24, plus whatever the payout is from my HLN allocation for this year, is very likely to remain well below that 80p.

But at least things are very slowly moving in the right direction.

I've held GSK, and latterly GSK+HLN, since forever. I'm showing a gain but not much on an annualised basis, despite recent price rises. However price fluctuations are of very little interest really, it's all about the divis for me. The prospective 60p divi makes a forward yield of 3.5% at 1,700p, marginally below the FTSE100 and not very high for a share with their questionable record, but my strategy is to hold indefinitely in most cases.

[rikky72] 01/5/2024 09:07

Looks better, but I suspect the big reduction between 22-23 was the dumping of some of their debt onto Haleon. A slower reduction as shown in the next interval may be more the norm.

[spoole5] 01/5/2024 08:23

Yes they were previously paying a higher divi funded by increasing debt

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/5/2024 08:15

#dplewis1, I will take this for starters, value adding.. :o)

Total net debt (FY-2022) GBP17,197M
Total net debt (FY-2023) GBP15,040M
Total net debt (Q1-2024) GBP14,961M

[dplewis1] 01/5/2024 07:54

We'll be rewarded with a higher share price soon enough. Probably more acquisitions as well given the cash levels