By Pietro Lombardi, Tom Fairless and Patricia Kowsmann
Economic fallout from Italy's unprecedented decision to lock
down almost one-third of its population due to coronavirus, and the
prospect of other European countries following Rome's move, will
challenge politicians and policy makers like no postwar financial
shock.
European Union officials, who spent years battling effects of
the 2008 recession, are looking to some of the same tools, but
economists say they won't be sufficient in this crisis. Cutting
interest rates and nudging banks to lend, for example, will prove
fruitless if employees aren't working and consumers aren't
shopping, economists say.
The immediate economic impact of 17 million people in northern
Italy ceasing normal life is a collapse in business activity. With
cash flow evaporating, companies risk being unable to pay their
bills, wages, loans and taxes. Corporate leaders and politicians in
Italy and other parts of the eurozone are calling on governments
and EU policy makers to relax financial rules, potentially buying
companies time for the epidemic to pass and commerce to resume.
"Everything is grinding to a halt and this can cause serious
damage," said Massimo Perrella, chief executive of Poliform
Lucernari, a producer of skylights in the province of Parma.
He said the current situation is worse than the financial crisis
a dozen years ago. "There is a feeling of fear and uncertainty
within the company," said Mr. Perrella, who employs 24 people, most
with families.
While few economists see rate moves by the European Central Bank
as helping significantly, some say they could be beneficial -- and
that remaining inactive sends a worrying signal to markets,
particularly after the Federal Reserve and other central banks took
action over recent days.
The ECB is scheduled to meet this week and its president,
Christine Lagarde, holds a regular news conference on Thursday. Ms.
Lagarde has said nothing publicly about the virus since a
restrained statement last Monday said the bank was "ready to take
appropriate and targeted measures."
"Central banks can't resolve the underlying shock [from the
virus] but they can temper its impact and stop the shock from
propagating and becoming a deeper downturn," said Seamus Mac
Gorain, a former official at the Bank of England who is now head of
global rates at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
But current and former ECB officials suggest that other major
central banks might be overreacting to what could be only a
temporary slowdown and a correction in asset prices. An increasing
number of these officials are worried about the adverse side
effects of negative interest rates and large-scale bond
purchases.
"It's not like the financial crisis -- people are overreacting,"
said Panicos Demetriades, former governor of euro member Cyprus's
central bank. Once the virus passes, demand will bounce back, he
predicted. "I don't think they should go with the big blunt tool of
interest rates to deal with a virus."
Big Italian companies with deep pockets and global operations
are adapting to the lockdown. Tire maker Pirelli & Co. and car
giant Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV said they would maintain
production but are reducing meetings and travel. Smaller companies
are already struggling.
The four restaurants in Antonio Viola's Mammina Holding are
deserted, even though three are far outside the quarantine zone, he
said Sunday. At the other, in Milan, revenue has fallen 70% in the
past two weeks and it is now operating at a loss.
"This crisis has had a devastating impact," he said, predicting
he might in coming days need to temporarily close all his
restaurants, which together employ around 100 people. "It's a
disaster."
Economists are urging eurozone governments to increase their
spending to support the economy and take some of the strain off the
ECB -- something Ms. Lagarde and her predecessor Mario Draghi have
long urged. In October, she singled out Germany and the
Netherlands, arguing they should use their budget surpluses to fund
investments that would stimulate the wider eurozone economy.
But while Germany has announced some limited fiscal measures in
recent days, German officials are philosophically opposed to
deficit spending and trying to smooth out fluctuations in the
business cycle. Chancellor Angela Merkel's Conservative CDU party,
which is particularly skeptical of fiscal stimulus, is in the midst
of a battle to decide Ms. Merkel's successor ahead of national
elections next year. That makes a departure from fiscal caution
improbable.
With dramatic policy moves unlikely, regulators and policy
makers are most concerned with preventing the economic slowdown
from spilling into the eurozone's already fragile banking system
and mitigating its impact on banks that get hit.
In Brussels, where EU-wide rules are set, discussions are
revolving around how to make sure companies, particularly small
ones, have enough liquidity to deal with a sharp fall in sales and
activities. They also are looking at how to apply clauses allowing
for flexibility in the bloc's debt and deficit rules to permit
targeted stimulus measures. Options under discussion include
granting affected companies relief on tax payments and EU
guarantees on small-business credit lines. State guarantees are
also being discussed on a country level. European finance ministers
are expected to approve a list of agreed-upon options for
governments to take when they meet on March 16.
"Something as simple as suspending tax payments for six months
would allow the company to operate for a year rather than three
months in this situation," said Mr. Perrella, the skylight maker in
Parma. The Italian government has launched a support package that
includes letting most affected firms postpone certain tax and
social-security payments. The EU said any extra government spending
to deal with the outbreak won't be counted for budget and debt
targets under existing rules.
European officials also are looking at whether state-aid rules
could be temporarily eased so governments can assist companies. The
ECB and its banking-supervision arm are considering not just
further interest-rate cuts, to further below zero, but also
targeted loans for banks and businesses hit by the virus.
More radical measures could include the ECB extending its
bond-buying program to bank bonds, although that is seen as
extremely problematic because of the ECB's dual role in setting
monetary policy but also supervising banks. Another, which would
likely require regulatory change and approval from governments,
would be easing rules on how nonperforming loans are classified so
banks wouldn't have to take losses on those right away, further
denting their profitability and creating a possible credit
crunch.
"At the moment they are in a wait-and-see mode," said a person
familiar with the talks.
But banks, particularly in Italy, already are calling for
moratoriums on loan repayments, or other measures that would
protect them from a rise in souring loans. In China, where the
coronavirus has already wreaked economic damage, financial
regulators said they would allow lenders to delay recognizing bad
loans from smaller businesses hurt by the virus outbreak.
"Everything is uncertain," said Mr. Perrella. "If a client asks
when I can deliver something, I can only say, 30 days plus
coronavirus."
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 08, 2020 16:36 ET (20:36 GMT)
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