U.S. Faces Recession in Early 2024, Leading Indicators Say
21 December 2023 - 3:46PM
Dow Jones News
By Ed Frankl
Economic activity is expected to contract again in the U.S.,
albeit at a slower pace than predicted a month ago, with a shallow
recession expected in the first six months of 2024.
The Conference Board said Thursday that its Leading Economic
Index fell 0.5% to 103.0 in November after falling 1.0% in October,
matching a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street
Journal.
Housing and labor-market indicators weakened in November, with
stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the
index in the month, according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior
manager for business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.
A short, shallow recession is expected in the first half of
2024, Zabinska-La Monica added.
However, suggesting bad news for the economy may be starting to
ease, the headline indicator contracted 3.5% in the six months to
November, a smaller decrease than the 4.3% fall in the prior six
months.
The Leading Economic Index is a predictive variable that
anticipates turning points in the business cycle. The indicator is
based on 10 components, among them initial claims for unemployment
insurance, manufacturers' new orders, building permits of new
private housing units, stock prices and consumers'
expectations.
Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 21, 2023 10:31 ET (15:31 GMT)
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