Index Signals Job Growth Will Stall in the
Second Half of 2024
NEW
YORK, May 6, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference
Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in April to 111.25,
from a downwardly revised 112.16 in March. The Employment Trends
Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index
increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa.
Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of
job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.
"The ETI fell in April, a sign that employment growth could
stall in the second half of 2024," said Will Baltrus, Associate Economist at The
Conference Board. "The ETI has been on a downward trajectory
since its peak in March 2022, and
this month signals a continuation of that trend. However, the Index
remains historically elevated and is still above its prepandemic
level, which suggests aggregate job losses are less likely than a
slowdown in employment growth."
Baltrus added: "April payrolls data showed an increase in
employment (+175,000) for the 39th consecutive month.
However, between the decrease in the topline number and the
narrowing of job gains across sectors relative to recent months,
the labor market is beginning to show signs of cooling following a
period of very strong growth since the pandemic recession.
Nonetheless, it is unlikely that substantial job losses will occur
over the coming months, as employers are still facing labor
shortages. In April, the Percentage of Firms with Jobs Not Able
to Fill Right Now—a component of the ETI—ticked up to 40% and
remains elevated compared to prepandemic levels.
"Despite labor shortages for some firms, many other firms are
not looking to hire, but are also not letting workers go, which is
known as 'labor hoarding'. Shortages and hoarding are keeping the
unemployment rate low and wages sticky. Sticky wages along
with elevated interest rates are raising the cost of doing business
for many companies. These factors may play into employer decisions
to hire more workers, but we posit that slowing consumer demand for
goods and services ahead will be the primary driver of slower
growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate ahead. Consumers may
be becoming concerned about these dynamics as the number of
consumers who said jobs were hard to get in our Consumer
Confidence Survey® —another ETI component —
increased."
April's decrease in the Employment Trends Index was driven by
negative contributions from three of its eight components:
Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get,"
Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, and
Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators
of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area.
Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters
out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the
Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get"
(The Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of
Labor)
- Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now
(© National Federation of Independent Business Research
Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers
(BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)*
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis)**
*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent
months
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index
monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday
that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are
available on The Conference Board website:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board
is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for
what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan,
not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt
status in the United
States. www.conference-board.org.
Employment Trends
Index (ETI)™ 2024 Publication Schedule
|
Index Release Date
(10 AM ET)
|
Data for the
Month
|
Monday, January
8, 2024
|
December
2023
|
Monday, February
5
|
January 2024
|
Monday, March
11
|
February
|
Monday, April
8
|
March
|
Monday, May
6
|
April
|
Monday, June
10
|
May
|
Monday, July
8
|
June
|
Monday, August
5
|
July
|
Monday, September
9
|
August
|
Monday, October
7
|
September
|
Monday, November
4
|
October
|
Monday, December
9
|
November
|
|
|
© The Conference
Board 2024. All data contained in this table are protected by
United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed
are provided for informational purposes only and may only be
accessed, reviewed, and/or used in accordance with, and the
permission of, The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or
license agreement and the Terms of Use displayed on our website at
www.conference-board.org. The data and analysis contained herein
may not be used, redistributed, published, or posted by any means
without express written permission from The Conference
Board.
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