VanEck Vectors Semicondu... (AMEX:SMH)
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After last year's strength, semiconductor stocks may be readying for their second dip in as many months.

The sector is riding an uptick that has sent Intel Corp. (INTC), Altera Corp. (ALTR) and several others above or near their 50-day moving averages in recent days. The exchange-traded fund Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust (SMH), up 0.3% recently to $26.88, has also crossed its own 50-day mark at a time when some technical indicators look pretty stretched.

The fund looks overbought to MKM Partners Chief Market Technician Katie Stockton. Measuring buying pressure versus selling shows that the stock hasn't been this heavily owned since right before January's dip, she said.

"As we come into resistance at the January highs in most names, it might be a good selling opportunity," Stockton said.

The shares haven't been pushing as far ahead of broader benchmarks as they used to. The S&P 500, up 0.2% recently to 1108.95, rose about 3% during semiconductors' recent runup. Intel has risen about 4%.

It wouldn't come as a surprise if the stocks were to take some more time to cool. Investors have taken more of a "sell on good news" approach to semiconductors lately.

Toward the end of 2009, a number of analysts noted that the sector's inventories were on the rise. They surveyed the stocks' rapid ascent last year and moved to the sidelines.

"The pace in the recovery in expectations for the group has been unprecedented," Morgan Stanley's analysts said in a November downgrade of the sector.

Growth forecasts for some big players in the industry still look rosy. This week, Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), which makes machines used in semiconductor manufacturing, hiked its outlook for revenue growth past 50% this fiscal year, up from greater than 30%.

-By Brendan Conway, Dow Jones Newswires; (212) 416-2670; brendan.conway@dowjones.com