Trump's lead on Harris is now 2-percentage
points among Registered Voters and 3-percent with Likely
Voters
Harris has consolidated the Democratic base,
winning back lapsed independent and suburban women, and nearly half
of previously undecided voters; She continues to struggle with
African American men.
Electoral race is fluid as one-in-four voters
say they could still change their mind.
WASHINGTON, July 26,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- A new poll released today
by HarrisX and Forbes shows a newly competitive race between Vice
President Kamala Harris and former
President Donald J. Trump.
Forty-seven percent of registered voters support Trump while 45%
say they would vote for Harris. Among likely voters, the former
president leads Harris 49% to 46%.
That marks a significant change in the race. Immediately prior
to President Joe Biden stepping
aside, Trump was leading Biden by 8 percentage points among
registered voters (48% to 40%) and 10 points among likely voters
(49% to 39%). Trump was also leading Harris by nine percentage
points (50% to 41%) among registered voters and by a double-digit
margin among likely voters (51% to 40%). The vice president has now
narrowed the gap, in large part by winning 46% of voters who were
undecided when the choice was between Biden and Trump.
The HarrisX/Forbes poll, which was conducted July 22-25, 2024 among 3,013 registered voters
via the HarrisX Overnight Poll, shows Harris surging with
independent voters and suburban women (full data available at
elections.harrisx.com). While Biden was losing independents
to Trump by a 13-percentage point margin (31% to 44%), Harris
trails just by two percentage points (40% to Trump's 42%). Among
suburban women, the vice president leads Trump by 12 percentage
points (52% to 40%) compared to just a 3-percentage point lead held
by President Biden (44% to Trump's 41%).
Additionally, Harris has quickly consolidated the Biden base,
with 95% of voters who had planned to support Biden sticking with
the vice president. Only 3% of Biden voters are now planning to
vote for Trump. However, the new presumptive Democratic nominee
continues to struggle with African American men, winning just 57%
of this key group, compared to 30% of Black men who plan to support
Donald Trump.
The data shows the race can still change significantly. One in
four (25%) registered voters, including 23% of Harris supporters
and 17% of Trump voters say they are still weighing their choices
for the November election.
"Kamala Harris has officially
reset the race, erasing much of Donald
Trump's post-convention gains. Harris is still behind Trump,
and it will take time for the numbers to fully settle, but one
thing is clear: almost a week after Biden's decision to step aside,
it's now again a competitive race," said Dritan Nesho, CEO of
HarrisX and lead pollster. "Vice President Harris has energized the
Democratic base, growing the lead with suburban women and closing
the gap with independents; but she is still struggling with African
American men, and Trump overall still has a more consolidated base
of voters."
"Voters, however, do not know the new Democratic nominee as well
as they know Mr. Trump. That presents an opportunity and a threat
to the Harris campaign, depending on whether she moves to the
center to win swing and moderate voters, or moves to the left of
Biden to appease the Democratic base," added Nesho.
The close race is also reflected by the fact that the two
candidates have nearly identical favorability ratings. Trump and
Harris are each viewed favorably by 44% of the electorate while 50%
view the former president unfavorably and 49% say the same about
the vice president. However, suburban women like Harris (49%
favorable – 43% unfavorable) significantly more than Trump (36%
favorable – 59% unfavorable).
The data shows a broad consensus that President Biden did the
right thing by stepping aside, with 81% of voters approving of his
decision. That includes strong majorities of Democrats (90%),
independents (79%) and Republicans (75%). Similarly, Democrats are
overwhelmingly supportive of Biden endorsing his VP (90% approve).
However, only just half (54%) of independents and merely 22% of
Republicans approve of the endorsement.
Just 27% of voters say that Biden's withdrawal is undemocratic
ignores the will of the 14 million Democratic primary voters.
Instead, 89% of Democrats, 72% of independents, and 58% of
Republicans say the president's withdrawal demonstrates that Biden
was listening to voters and the recent polling that was showing
most Democrats wanting the incumbent to drop out.
HarrisX data is tracked and updated daily at
elections.harrisx.com.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted online
within the United States
July 22-25, 2024, among 3,013
registered voters via the HarrisX Overnight Poll. Respondents for
the HarrisX Overnight Poll are recruited through opt-in, web-panel
recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs through a broad variety of
professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling
frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given
panel on recruiting methods.
The results reflect a nationally representative sample of
registered voters. Results were weighted for age, gender, region,
race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, ideology and
area type where necessary to align them with their actual
proportions in the population. The margin of error for the total
sample is +/- 1.8 percentage points.
About HarrisX & the HarrisX Overnight Poll
HarrisX, a Stagwell company, is a leading global market research
and data analytics company that conducts multi-method consumer and
voter research across the U.S. and over 40 countries. With offices
in Washington, D.C., New York City, London and Toronto, HarrisX advises Fortune 100
companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs, and
philanthropic organizations. According to The Washington Post and
American Research Group, HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of
the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The HarrisX Overnight Poll
runs 365 days a year in the United
States as an omnibus survey; for more information email
OvernightPoll@Harrisx.com
About Forbes:
Forbes champions success by celebrating those who have made it, and
those who aspire to make it. Forbes convenes and curates the most
influential leaders and entrepreneurs who are driving change,
transforming business and making a significant impact on the world.
The Forbes brand today reaches more than 140 million people
worldwide through its trusted journalism, signature LIVE and Forbes
Virtual events, custom marketing programs and 43 licensed local
editions in 69 countries. Forbes Media's brand extensions include
real estate, education and financial services license
agreements.
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SOURCE HarrisX