SINGAPORE, July 16, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The ASEAN+3
Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has kept its 2024–25 growth
forecasts for the ASEAN+3 region broadly unchanged at 4.4 percent
and 4.3 percent, respectively, in its latest quarterly
update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO).
Favorable export prospects should boost the region's growth
momentum, alongside firm domestic demand and the continued recovery
in tourism.
This year, the ASEAN+3 region is expected to grow at a steady
pace of 4.4 percent, compared with the forecast of 4.5 percent in
April 2024. Domestic demand will be
bolstered by strong employment conditions and stable prices, while
exports growth is expected to return to positive territory on
improving global demand. Growth in ASEAN is forecast to improve
from 4.2 percent in 2023 to 4.8 percent this year, while the
overall growth for the Plus-3 economies (China; Hong Kong,
China; Japan; and Korea) is
projected to remain stable at 4.4 percent.
AMRO expects the ASEAN+3 growth to ease slightly to 4.3 percent
in 2025, as the regional economies converge to their trend
growth.
"The overall balance of risks to the region's outlook has
improved since April," said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor. "Real
estate aside, China's economy
continues to grow robustly. Tourism has rebounded close to
pre-pandemic levels for most economies in the region, and the
global semiconductor recovery is broadening to benefit more
economies and sectors in ASEAN+3."
Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region—excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar—is
forecast to moderate to 2.1 percent in 2024, lower than the April
forecast of 2.5 percent. However, downside risks to inflation
remain, especially if geopolitical tensions worsen and trigger
spikes in global commodity and shipping prices.
U.S.-related risk factors have become more salient.
Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations in the U.S. have
weighed on many of the region's currencies. ASEAN+3 asset markets
could also see higher volatility in the run-up to the November
presidential election, especially if the election campaign leads to
a further escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions.
"The bad news is that the region's outlook next year could be
significantly affected by the outcome of the U.S. elections. The
good news is, the region has weathered similar shocks before," Khor
said. "Our economies need to keep rebuilding policy space and
pursue policies to enhance resilience to shocks."
AMRO's conclusions are found in the latest quarterly
update of its flagship AREO report. The next update will be
released in October.
About AMRO
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) is an
international organization established to contribute toward
securing macroeconomic and financial stability of the ASEAN+3
region, comprising 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) and China;
Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea. AMRO's mandate is to conduct
macroeconomic surveillance, support regional financial
arrangements, and provide technical assistance to the members. In
addition, AMRO also serves as a regional knowledge hub and provides
support to ASEAN+3 financial cooperation.
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