Upstream Share Discussion Threads

[master rsi] 16/10/2024 07:25

UK inflation eases to lowest annual rate in three years

Proactive Investors - UK inflation eased to its lowest rate in three years in September, driven chiefly by lower airfares and petrol prices.

The update from the Office for National Statistics revealed that September's consumer prices index was up 1.7% compared to a year ago, the lowest since April 2021.

CPI last month was down from the 2.2% annual rate in August and the 4.0% rate at the start of this year, as well as being lower than the 1.9% that the market expected.

On a monthly basis, CPI was flat, which was softer than the previous 0.3% monthly increase and below expectations for a 0.1% rise.

Core CPI, which strips out more volatile prices like food and fuel, was up 3.2% year-on-year, down from the prior 3.6% and below the 3.4% consensus forecast,

Services CPI, a key measure for the Bank of England to keep track of the persistence of inflation, printed at 4.9%, down from the prior 5.6% and below the 5.2% expected.

“Inflation eased in September to its lowest annual rate in over three years," said ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner. 

"Lower airfares and petrol prices were the biggest driver for this month’s fall. These were partially offset by increases for food and non-alcoholic drinks, the first time that food price inflation has strengthened since early last year.  

"Meanwhile the cost of raw materials for businesses fell again, driven by lower crude oil prices."

[master rsi] 16/10/2024 07:13

FTSE

All the way up with 65 points at the opening

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 22:50

THG 46.74p UT- spread 47 v 47.16p

The signs are there of wanting to bounce back

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 22:35

US close: Dow retreats from record high as traders digest Q3 earnings

Wall Street stocks were in the red at the close of trading on Tuesday as Q3 earnings season kicked up a gear.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.75% at 42,740.42,
while the S&P 500 lost 0.76% to 5,815.26
and the Nasdaq Composite saw out the session 1.01% weaker at 18,315.59.

The Dow closed 324.80 points lower on Tuesday, more than reversing gains recorded in the previous session.

On the macro front, the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index crashed to -11.9 in October, down from a reading of +11.5 in September to surprise economists who were expecting a reading of +3.8. October's print, which marked the worst reading since May, came as new orders slumped 20 points to -10.2 and shipments dropped 21 points to -2.7.

U.S. stocks followed world stocks lower on Tuesday as weak sales forecast from chipmaker ASML weighed on tech shares, while crude extended its slide due to easing supply worries and weakening demand.

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 20:53

MARKET REPORT
LONDON MARKET CLOSE: Airlines fly, but BP sags as oil price declines

(Alliance News) - London's FTSE 100 faltered on Tuesday with weak oil majors offsetting brighter fortunes for airlines and housebuilders.

The FTSE 100 index closed down 43.38 points, or 0.5%, at 8,249.28. The FTSE 250 ended down 22.75 points, or 0.1%, at 20,794.44, while the AIM All-Share closed up 0.09 of a point at 733.86.

The Cboe UK 100 ended down 0.3% at 827.20, the Cboe UK 250 closed up 0.6% at 18,363.77, and the Cboe Small Companies climbed 1.2% at 17,060.89.

In Europe, fortunes were mixed. The CAC 40 in Paris ended down 1.1%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt rose 0.1%.

On the FTSE 100, BP fell 4.1% and Shell ebbed 3.0% reflecting a sharp fall in the oil price.

Brent oil was quoted at USD73.90 a barrel at the London equities close on Tuesday, down from USD77.19 late Monday.

The price fell as the Washington Post reported that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Biden administration in the US he's willing to strike military rather than oil or nuclear facilities in Iran.

Israel's assurances have removed a "big overhang" for the oil market in the immediate term, ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said.

On Monday, Opec lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecasts for world oil demand, largely as a consequence of concerns about China's economic outlook.

Opec now assumes that the global average daily oil demand will rise by around 1.9 million barrels - each containing 159 litres - to 104.1 million barrels this year. Just a month ago, the Saudi-led cartel had forecast an increase of more than 2 million barrels.

In addition, the International Energy Agency said global oil markets remain "adequately" supplied thanks to the end of a Libyan oil blockade, weaker demand and relatively modest output losses from hurricanes in the US Gulf Coast.

Benefiting from the lower oil prices, airlines flew higher. British Airways owner, IAG, climbed 4.1%, the top riser in the blue-chip index, and easyJet rose 3.2%.

Also faring well were housebuilders boosted by hopes for lower interest rates and an optimistic outlook from Bellway.

The firm said it expects to build more houses in the new financial year, after a "challenging" year just ended saw profit and sales plunge.

The Newcastle-upon-Tyne housebuilder said pretax profit dropped 62% to GBP183.7 million in the year ending July from GBP483.0 million a year prior. Underlying pretax profit fell 58% to GBP226.1 million from GBP532.6 million.

Revenue declined 30% to GBP2.38 billion from GBP3.41 billion.

Chief Executive Jason Honeyman called it a "resilient performance despite the challenging operating conditions during the year."

Optimistically, Bellway said customer confidence gradually improved throughout the year, driven by a moderation of both mortgage interest rates and consumer price inflation, and an increase in wages.

This leaves it well-placed to deliver a "material increase" in volume output in financial year 2025, it said.

Bellway expects to deliver completions of at least 8,500 homes in the current financial year, up 11% from 7,654 homes in the year just ended. This would still be 22% lower than the 10,945 completions reported in the year to July 2023.

Bellway rose 8.3%, while peers Persimmon advanced 2.9%, Barratt Redrow climbed 2.6% and Taylor Wimpey gained 2.2%.

Also supporting housebuilders UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the GBP550 million investment into housing will help people get on the housing ladder and "rebuild the country".

The government said that the additional funds would be used to build "tens of thousands" of new homes with a beneficial social or environmental impact.

But concerns over economic growth in China continued to weigh on mining issues with Antofagasta down 4.5%, Glencore down 3.8% and Anglo American down 3.6%.

Elsewhere, NatWest rose 0.6% as Jefferies double-upgraded to 'buy' from 'underperform'. But Paragon fell 4.0% on the FTSE 250 as the same broker downgraded the lender to 'hold' from 'buy.

In economic news, the UK jobless rate faded to 4.0% in the three months to August, from 4.1% in the three months to July. The latest figure compared to FXStreet-cited consensus of 4.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics.

In addition, average earnings excluding bonuses rose 4.9% in the three months to August, cooling from 5.1% in the three months to July. Annual growth in total earnings, so including bonuses, was 3.8%. Growth in earnings including bonuses eased from 4.0% in three months to July.

Overall, this is a solid report, said Kathleen Brooks at XTB.

"However, we don't expect much of a shift in UK rate cut expectations. Although wage growth moderated, the employment picture in the UK has strengthened," Brooks noted.

But economists at ING noted a job vacancies suggesting the UK labour market is cooling.

"Unemployment may be down, but so are vacancies, while the more timely and reliable payroll data points to a jobs market that looks more like it did in 2019. That period saw wage growth of 3.5%, not the 5% we see today. It'll take time, but that's the direction of travel for wages over the coming months and if we're right, it means faster Bank of England cuts."

All eyes are now consumer inflation numbers on Thursday which are expected to show a drop in the headline rate below the Bank of England's 2% target in September.

The pound was quoted at USD1.3094 at the London equities close on Tuesday, higher compared to USD1.3052 at the close on Monday.

The euro stood at USD1.0950 at the European equities close on Tuesday, against USD1.0910 at the same time on Monday. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at JPY149.29, down compared to JPY149.83 late Monday.

Stocks in New York were lower at the London equities close, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 0.4% lower while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%.

Investors gave a mixed reaction to third quarter results from banking giants Goldman Sachs, Citi and Bank of America.

Goldman eased 1.0% despite a jump in third-quarter profit, thanks in part to strong revenue growth in investment banking.

Bank of America climbed 2.0% as it predicted further growth in net interest income in the fourth quarter.

But Citi fell 3.0% after reporting weaker third-quarter profit, as the lender increased provisions for credit losses.

Meanwhile, Walgreens Boots Alliance stormed 12% higher after announcing plans to close 1,200 stores over the next three years.

The pharmacy chain expects to close 500 stores in its 2025 financial year, which it expects to be "immediately accretive" to profit and free cash flow.

Back in London, De La Rue surged 20% after agreeing to sell the group's Authentication division to Crane NXT for a cash consideration representing an enterprise value of GBP300 million.

Gold was quoted at USD2,663.59 an ounce at the London equities close on Tuesday, up against USD2,646.29 at the close on Monday.

Wednesday's UK corporate calendar sees trading statements from miners Antofagasta and Rio Tinto and half-year results from Premier Inn owner, Whitbread.

The economic calendar has the UK consumer price index figures at 0700 BST.

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 20:32

DOW

On the way down by 324 points at the end of the day

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 16:13

How the UPS are performing during last month

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 15:28

How the UPS are performing today

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 14:58

SFOR 38.90p +1p

Time to move up after the recent retrace says the chart

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 14:38

TTG 93p +1.80p - after 93.30p - ( 93 v 93,60p )

Today has finally waked up and moved higher, after the flat bottom in the chart, so the bounce is on now

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 14:23

Boeing enters $10bn credit deal, plans to raise up to $25bn

(Sharecast News) - Boeing revealed significant steps to strengthen its financial position on Tuesday, as it entered into a $10bn supplemental credit agreement with a consortium of major lenders.

The beleaguered airspace giant said in a regulatory filing that the deal with lenders including BofA Securities, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase would provide access to short-term liquidity to weather current challenges, particularly a costly strike by its largest labour union, which was impacting already-delayed production and operations.

Under the credit agreement, Boeing said it would pay various fees, including a funding fee of 0.50% on each loan and duration fees ranging from 0.5% to 1%, depending on how long the funds remained outstanding.

Interest rates for borrowings would fluctuate based on Boeing's credit rating, with higher rates applied to loans tied to the secured overnight funding rate (SOFR).

The deal contained customary restrictions and covenants, such as limiting consolidated debt to 60% of Boeing's total capital and restricting certain mergers, liens, and defaults.

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 14:09

DOW

on the way down with 274 points

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 11:56

MARKET REPORT
LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: Stocks stay red as budget uncertainty prevails

(Alliance News) - Stock prices in London were lower at midday on Tuesday, as uncertainty around the upcoming Labour budget, as well as an interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, played on investor sentiment.

The FTSE 100 index was down 45.57 points, or 0.6%, at 8,246.89. The FTSE 250 was down 12.40 points, or 0.1%, at 20,804.79, and the AIM All-Share was down 0.71 points, or 0.1%, at 733.06.

The Cboe UK 100 was down 0.4% at 826.05, the Cboe UK 250 was up 0.1% at 18,277.51, and the Cboe Small Companies was up 0.9% at 17,018.36.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned her budget on October 30 would be "tough", as she gave the clearest signal yet that businesses will face a hike in national insurance.

At the government's International Investment Summit, Reeves said: "We were really clear in our manifesto that we weren't going to increase the key taxes paid by working people: income tax, national insurance and VAT and, on the business side of commitment, that we would cap corporation tax at its current rate of 25% which was the lowest in the in the G7 and we will stick to the commitments we made in our manifesto."

Reflecting on Reeves' options to plug the GBP22 billion "black hole" in public finances, while still driving economic growth, AJ Bell's Tom Selby warned that "the level of uncertainty created ahead of the budget has real-world consequences".

Speaking on pensions specifically, Selby said it was "clearly not desirable that some savers feel forced to take decisions based on rumour and speculation rather than their long-term retirement goals".

"Reeves should use her budget to nip this issue in the bud by pledging not to make major changes to either pension tax relief or tax-free cash. This 'Pensions Tax Lock' would send a clear signal to savers that the goalposts won't be moved and should give people more confidence to take decisions based on their long-term interests," Selby added.

Meanwhile, in local data, numbers from the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday showed that the UK jobless rate faded to 4.0% in the three months to August, from 4.1% in the three months to July. The latest figure compared to FXStreet-cited consensus of 4.1%.

However, average earnings excluding bonuses rose 4.9% in the three months to August, cooling from 5.1% in the three months to July. Annual growth in total earnings, so including bonuses, was 3.8%. Growth in earnings including bonuses eased from 4.0% in three months to July.

Separate estimates indicated the number of payrolled employees rose by 0.4% in September, when compared with the same month a year prior. Provisional figures indicate that median monthly pay increased by 5.3% in September when compared with a year prior.

In European equities on Tuesday, the CAC 40 in Paris was down 0.7%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt was up 0.2%.

Eurozone industrial production returned to growth in August, according to official data on Tuesday.

Eurostat said industrial production expanded by 1.8% month-on-month in the eurozone, having shrunk 0.5% in July. The strongest growth was a 3.7% expansion in capital goods. By country, Germany saw robust growth of 3.3%.

Compared to the prior year, industrial production was up 0.1% in August, having slumped 2.1% in July.

The European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates again this week, as anxiety about inflation in the eurozone fades and concerns over sluggish growth mount.

Inflation fell to 1.8% across the 20 members of the euro area in September, the first time it has been below the ECB's target of two percent since 2021. While the rate is expected to tick up again towards the end of the year, the sense that consumer prices are back under control has grown.

Meanwhile, separate data from Destatis showed that wholesale prices in Germany decreased monthly and annually in September, falling short of the consensus forecast.

Selling prices in wholesale trade decreased 1.6% compared with September 2023, and decreased 0.3% compared with August. This underperformed against FXStreet-cited consensus, which had pencilled in a 0.2% rise on a monthly basis.

In August, Destatis reported, prices fell 1.1% on-year, having edged down just 0.1% in July.

Destatis said mineral oil products were the main contributor to the on-year decrease in September, with their wholesale prices dropping 15% annually and by 4.5% from the prior month.

The pound was quoted at USD1.3079 at midday on Tuesday in London, up compared to USD1.3052 at the equities close on Monday. The euro stood at USD1.0913, higher against USD1.0910. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at JPY148.91, down compared to JPY149.83.

In London's FTSE 250, Bellway gained 6.7%.

For the year ended July 31, the construction firm reported pretax profit of GBP183.7 million, down 62% from GBP483.0 million a year prior. Revenue fell 30% to GBP2.38 billion from GBP3.41 billion.

Accordingly, Bellway slashed its total dividend to 54.0 pence from 140.0p the previous year.

Nevertheless, the firm remained positive on its order book forecast, with the book totalling 5,144 homes, up from 4,411 year-on-year. Order book value on July 31 was GBP1.41 billion, up from GBP1.19 billion the year before.

Bellway is targeting at least 8,500 homes in financial 2025, up from 7,654 in financial 2024.

Elsewhere, De La Rue jumped 13%.

Its wholly owned subsidiary, De La Rue Holdings, has agreed to sell the group's authentication division to Crane NXT and its related entities for a cash consideration representing an enterprise value of GBP300 million. Of this, 5% will be held in escrow for up to 18 months following completion.

Proceeds will go towards repaying De La Rue's existing revolving credit facility in full and reducing leverage to a net cash position; and reducing the deficit on the group's legacy defined benefit pension scheme by paying GBP30 million as an accelerated contribution on completion. The transaction is expected to complete in the first half of 2025.

Meanwhile, Applied Nutrition set the price range for its planned initial public offering at 136 to 160 pence per share, implying an estimated market capitalisation at admission of between GBP340 million and GBP400 million.

The offer comprises up to 137.4 million existing shares to be sold by certain existing shareholders of the company.

Stocks in New York were called mainly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was called up 0.1%, but the S&P 500 index was called down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.2%.

The US Federal Reserve should be more careful with its pace of rate cuts than it was in September, a senior bank official said, pointing to "disappointing" recent inflation data.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told a conference in California, the latest inflation figures were "disappointing," according to prepared remarks.

A Labor Department report last week showed US consumer inflation cooled in the year to September, but a measure stripping out volatile food and energy costs rose slightly. Economic growth and employment, however, have remained strong despite the Fed's elevated interest rates.

Meanwhile, in politics, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is set to give her first interview to the conservative television channel Fox News, less than three weeks before the US presidential election on November 5.

The conversation with moderator Bret Baier is scheduled to air on Wednesday evening at 2200 GMT, the channel announced. It will take place in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

At a rally in Erie, the most evenly-divided of Pennsylvania's counties, the Democrat VP played a video montage of Trump calling for the jailing of political opponents and repeatedly referring to "the enemy from within."

It included a weekend interview on Fox News in which Trump suggested "sick people, radical left lunatics" could be "very easily handled" by the military under a Trump administration.

Harris said Trump would persecute groups he has targeted before, including journalists, election officials and judges who "insist on following the law, instead of bending to his will.

Brent oil was quoted at USD73.48 a barrel at midday in London on Tuesday, down from USD77.19 late Monday.

Gold was quoted at USD2,654.80 an ounce, up against USD2,646.29.

Still to come on Tuesday's economic calendar, there is the New York empire state manufacturing index and the Redbook index from the US.

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 11:34

How the UPS are performing during last month

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 11:15

How the UPS are performing today

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 10:56

UPS

THG 47.23p (47.14 v 47.32p )

Share price under placing of 49p of last week, today's movements is a sign of wanting to bounce back
--------------- Intraday ----------------------------------- 2 months --------------------------------------- 1 year ---------------
INDICATORS

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 09:43

HSW 136p -1p - Hostelworld reaffirms full-year guidance

(Sharecast News) - Hostelworld Group reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance in an update on Tuesday, in line with market expectations, following a solid performance through the year-to-date up to 30 September.

The London-listed company recorded 5.4 million net bookings, a 7% year-on-year increase, driven by record performances in Asia and Central America.

However, the net average booking value declined 9% to €13.54, reflecting a higher proportion of bookings in lower-cost Asian destinations and a rise in solo travellers, consistent with mid-year trends.

Net revenue for the period stood at €72.3m, down 2% from the prior year, while direct marketing costs as a percentage of revenue decreased to 46%, from 51% in 2023.

The proportion of bookings from Hostelworld's Social Members rose to 80%, up from 67% the prior year, signalling growing engagement with the company's social platform.

Operating costs were tightly managed, totaling €18.7m, a 3% reduction from last year and representing 26% of net revenue.

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 09:20

THG 47p

Is still holding under the recent placing and Open offer @ 49p

THG sells own-brand and third-party cosmetics and dietary supplements online, and provides an end-to-end e-commerce service to third parties through its Ingenuity division.

A demerger of Ingenuity, which serves clients such as Frasers Group, one of Britain's biggest high street empires, would allow THG to retain the material free cashflow generated by its other operations.

[master rsi] 15/10/2024 09:09

Wise moving closer to margin target as income jumps 17%

(Alliance News) - Wise PLC on Tuesday said it didn't anticipate making further "material" price cuts in the remainder of its financial year, after reporting solid growth in second quarter underlying income.

The London-based money transfer firm said underlying income rose 17% to GBP337.0 million in the second quarter ended September 30 from GBP288.4 million a year prior.

Wise expects full-year underlying income growth of 15% to 20%, in line with guidance given in June.

Cross border volume increased 20% to GBP35.2 billion from GBP29.2 billion a year prior with the number of active customers up 23% to 8.9 million from 7.2 million.

In response, shares in Wise rose 4.1% to 706.50 pence each in London on Tuesday morning.

Wise said it continued to reduce and restructure cross border pricing in the second quarter to drive growth. The cross border take rate for the quarter was 59 basis points, an 8 point reduction on-year due to 6 points from lower prices and 2 points from a changing mix.

This was partly offset at an underlying income level by an increase in pricing on non-cross border services, the firm noted.

The investments in pricing through the first half are expected to move Wise closer to achieving its medium-term target underlying pretax profit margin range of 13% to 16% in the second half, the company explained.

As a result, Wise does not currently anticipate making further "material investments in reduced pricing" in the second half of the financial year