Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[opodio] 10/9/2018 08:09

cant buy online now

[topvest] 10/9/2018 07:58

I think its worth at least double the existing share price and £1+ in due course, once it starts growing above £100m turnover. Remember there will be a Kleeneze relaunch late 2019 or 2020. On a P/E of 5 its clearly undervalued. 10 is about right. 15 when it starts growing.

[topvest] 10/9/2018 07:57

They deduct share based payment charges and depreciation - about £0.5m a year. There were no exceptional items at the half years stage. I always seem to compare this with Luceco which was another IPO disappointment. This has much cleaner earnings.

[lammylover] 10/9/2018 07:55

Just checking the numbers - Revenue 2016 H1 42.0m, H2 37.0m FY 79.0m. Revenue 2017 H1 68.1m (described by BOD as unusually strong) H2 41.9m, FY 110.0m. 2018 H1 48.4m H2 39.2m FY 87.6m. So revenue up 8.6% over 2016, but down 20.4% over 2017 which was a bumper year. This looks like we have stabilised the ship and starting to turn it around. EBITDA not quite so good - 2016 H1 5.0m, H2 3.2m FY 8.2m; 2017 H1 8.8m (unusually strong), H2 2.7m, FY 11.5m; 2018 H1 4.5m, H2 2.0m FY 6.5m - but at least profitable. I reckon this should be good for a share price recovery now as next results 6th November compare against poorer comparitors than 2017 which was a bumper year and we are back in growth again. Particularly like fact that "order book is ahead of this time LY". Surely got to be worth 50p plus? Rich

[pugugly] 10/9/2018 07:53

"Unaudited underlying EBITDA* down 43.8% to £6.5m (FY17: £11.5m), in line with previous guidance, driven by lower revenues" Does not give much leeway for exceptionals to push pretax profits to negatve (imo)

[senor_sensible] 10/9/2018 07:51

Looks ok to me, once the GBP/EURO rate improves and it will this will see massive improvement to profitability, buy and hold for great long term growth IMO

Well managed business

[kirk 6] 10/9/2018 07:49

Wait till the U.K. market picks up... which it will ... this will be in the £s again

[topvest] 10/9/2018 07:46

Agreed. DPS was about 2.5p and so yielding c8%. Given the cash generation and underlying profitability that was only going to happen if something had got significantly worse. To me it sounds like UK is still slow (no surprise), but internet sales and overseas sales are growing.

[kirk 6] 10/9/2018 07:44

When is the next dividend pay date ?

[kirk 6] 10/9/2018 07:36

No mention of cancelling dividend aswell. No wonder we have had some large investors on Board

[topvest] 10/9/2018 07:32

Another way of looking at it. They did £2m underlying EBITDA in H2 versus £2.7m last year. Sales in H2 were £39.2m versus £41.9m last year. Not too bad a performance in the weaker second half. H1 is always stronger because of Christmas. I still like it.

[topvest] 10/9/2018 07:23

Trading update. Looks OK, with no more bad news and order book now up on last year in difficult markets. Revenue looks a little lower than forecast £90m, but profits and cash generation are strong. If you strip out last year's bumper £110m, the £88m is still higher than the £79m in 2016 which was a record year at that point. Still a growth company in my view, albeit it will take a couple of years to get back to £100m+ sales. Importantly it looks like 2018/19 should be a better year, albeit the UK market is obviously still difficult. Nevertheless, you would still hope for £95m or so of sales next year.

[greenknight1] 31/8/2018 07:37

I think most people watching are going to buy when this technically moves up. I expect the move to be extremely fast when there is a scramble to get the cheap stock.

[topvest] 30/8/2018 18:39

Think we are getting close to the turning point here. I’d be tempted to add more, but have enough already. I will only consider buying more myself when we get an uptrend confirmed technically.

[kirk 6] 30/8/2018 18:01

Fake price that closed mid 33.7

[podgyted] 30/8/2018 16:47

MM equally having a laugh today - no reason for the fall to 32.6 - they want cheap stock.

[pugugly] 21/8/2018 13:15

Retail trade still under the cosh - More to go bust - Bad debts? Look at problems for suppliers to HOF - OK I know a very different market place but consumers are consumers and most are feeling short of cash
PLUS of course sterling still under severe pressure from possible hard Brexit -

Major question probably chance of survival or not?

[eastbourne1982] 20/8/2018 23:24

So then chaps, what price are you guys averaging here ?

[lammylover] 19/8/2018 23:11

Hi Kirk, yes you're right on the dividends - I was looking at last years figures unfortunately. However I stand by the rest of my post! Lets hope for a trade update around 10th Sept, that starts shifting this back up to a reasonable price. Rich

[kirk 6] 17/8/2018 19:48

Lammy I hope you are right mate. I don’t think you are right with the interim dividend though as it is only 0.83p I think? That was all I was paid in July per share and it’s 1.66p paid in December this year I think?

[topvest] 17/8/2018 19:38

Lets hope so and I do agree. Its probably institutions selling their losers to avoid embarrassing questions. Same old story at the moment. Growth over value. To me the business model here is fantastic and has great long term potential with an intelligent fanatic at the helm. Hope that I am right.

[lammylover] 17/8/2018 19:13

This is as cheap as chips at 34p/share. Mkt cap is £28m, debt c£7m, PBT rough conservative estimate say £7m, so P/E around 5ish. Dividend for FY 4.33p that's 12.7% at 34p. These are ludicrously cheap at 34p. How bad would trade update have to be for share to fall even further. Everything appears okay on UPGS website, with more people taken on (generally all graduates who will expect that they are joining a company with a bright future??), so assume that expansion into Europe is going well. Surely this is an example of the madness of markets with this pricing? Discuss! LOL Rich

[topvest] 17/8/2018 18:12

Could just be a last tree shake, albeit it looks like an institution is still reducing and there isn’t massive buying. I would say that the EBT share purchase was a fairly bullish sign. Why would they buy them, if this is going down the toilet. I’m still very optimistic here, but obviously may live to regret this comment! To be honest though I can’t think of a much better value share than this one. Obviously I have got in way too early, but we are getting close to a turning point in my view. Short term trade aside, there has to be a high probability that it can repeat and improve on what it has done historically in the medium term.

[preddaway1] 17/8/2018 18:01

But the level of sells are very low compared to the overall number held, if it was and you said wouldn’t we see more sells coming through.