Trap Oil Grp Share Discussion Threads

[freddycnx] 18/3/2015 06:16

Latest from the company (leaving Athena to one side).
Exploration and Appraisal Interests

We continue to develop, and seek potential farm-out partners where appropriate, the remaining attractive exploration and appraisal assets in the group's portfolio, including Licence P.1889, Blocks 12/26b and 12/27 ("Niobe"), for which a well is planned for Q2 2015; Licence P.1610 Block 13/23a ("Magnolia"), for which seismic evaluation work is ongoing in respect of a possible extension of the adjacent Liberator discovery; Licence P.1666, Block 30/11c ("Romeo"), a discovery requiring further appraisal; Licence P.1989 Blocks 14/11, 12 & 16 ("Homer") and Licence P.2170, Blocks 20/5b and 21/1d ("Cortina").

Any Oily advisers in here know anything about the areas described?

[freddycnx] 18/3/2015 06:09

Are there any licences under the radar? Once the books are clean and the board replaced is there a hidden value? He needs 8.5p per share to break even on my calculations.

[freddycnx] 18/3/2015 06:02

It is difficult to understand quite what is in PG's mind. One poster has suggested his purchases of TRIP shares will be offset as losses for tax purposes. That is a substantial loss!

What we know so far.
By 17 Feb 14 PG had amassed 12% of the company. The market price suggests these were all purchased at above 9p. For the sake of argument let's say average price of 10p.
By 1 Jul 14 PG had amassed a further 4% @9p
By 1 Sep 14 PG had amassed a further 3% @8p
By 13 Feb 15 PG had amassed a further 4% @3p averaged

29,350,000 shares at a cost of c10p = £2.935m
7,061,026 shares at a cost of c9p = £0.635m (total holding 36,411,026)
6,416,000 shares at a cost of c8p = £0.513m (total holding 42,327,026)
8,775,000 shares at a cost of c3p = £.263m (total holding 51,102,026) (22.5%)

His 22.5% stake therefore has cost him in the region of £4.35m
The value of his stake at today's price of 0.625p is £0.32m

That is a loss of £4m

So what is he up to? Or is he completely barking mad?

[bones698] 17/3/2015 18:02

No far from it they were so called experts which makes even more comical . Sadly the new team haven't done any better tbh . Some was bad luck some diabolical management .

[au24] 17/3/2015 15:24

Were the BOD new to the oil business to make such elementary errors?

[cashandcard] 17/3/2015 14:42

I have to say the cancellation of the hedge was a shocking move.


Cash

[bones698] 17/3/2015 14:34

Poor management , drill failures , bad purchases , poor management , cancellation of hedge , oil price collapse , poor management , poor partners , lack of cash burn control , poor management , not allowed for extra costs of decommisioning , no plan , poor management imo .

[au24] 17/3/2015 13:49

What's going on here!
Had so much promise.

[bones698] 17/3/2015 07:16

The end is nigh oil crashing again so trap losing big bucks each month this goes on. Decc watching closely to see if they can cover decom costs and nothing happening to help trap at all . Think by September this year it could be all over if not before imo . What a well run company lol

[cyan] 13/3/2015 21:41

Brent closed the week at $54.44. Good grief!

[bones698] 12/3/2015 21:41

So what does that mean to trap cyan 300k plus a month they are losing . All gone very quiet on athena can't think why . Trap will be busy before they decomission athena . The decc are looking closely as to wether trap can pay their share etc etc rip trap the end is nigh imo

[cyan] 11/3/2015 19:59

Incredibly volatile; now $57.80, better

[cyan] 11/3/2015 09:48

Brent has retreated significantly to $56.44. Very unhelpful. Nothing moves in a straight line. Just have to wait and see .

[bones698] 05/3/2015 11:42

Just don't place them on trap though it's a dead duck . Remember trap are only paying off the original quote for decomissioning not the later almost double costs . My guess is the eventual costs would be in the middle to higher end in which case that's all the remaining cash gone , no assets and nothing likely to be drilled . Athena will keep pumping for at least another 12 months which will hurt traps cash balances even further as its loss making even though many didn't believe me when I kept telling them that . Don't forget to add n traps running costs of about 150k a month to the loss too . It's just a case of when the end is now imo . What value is left then will be minimal hence why it's under 1p and still there are sellers wanting out . PG looks likely to use it for tax losses and maybe a shell but it's ine expensive shell so far lol .

[bones698] 05/3/2015 11:42

Just don't place them on trap though it's a dead duck . Remember trap are only paying off the original quote for decomissioning not the later almost double costs . My guess is the eventual costs would be in the middle to higher end in which case that's all the remaining cash gone , no assets and nothing likely to be drilled . Athena will keep pumping for at least another 12 months which will hurt traps cash balances even further as its loss making even though many didn't believe me when I kept telling them that . Don't forget to add n traps running costs of about 150k a month to the loss too . It's just a case of when the end is now imo . What value is left then will be minimal hence why it's under 1p and still there are sellers wanting out . PG looks likely to use it for tax losses and maybe a shell but it's ine expensive shell so far lol .

[cyan] 05/3/2015 09:54

I heard another say $80 at end of the year. No-one predicted the crash or expected such a fast move back to $60. Crazy days.

Time will tell; place your chips.

[rcturner2] 05/3/2015 09:43

cyan, a lot of commentators thing that oil will settle at the $60 price for a while now, seems reasonable to me?

[cyan] 05/3/2015 09:36

Good morning Cash.
Its not about TRAP and the like competing with US shale.
Its ALL about the world price of oil. The driver there is the Saudi's.
If we can get back to over $70 we are in a different place.

Brent $60.97

[cashandcard] 05/3/2015 09:11

For those of you who maybe interested in North American unconventional plays (shale et all):

---------------------------------------------------------------->>
EOG Resources:


"IMPROVING WELL PRODUCTIVITY

Over the last few years, EOG Resources’ average well productivity has increased considerably on optimized spacing and efficiency improvements in fracking techniques. Higher well productivity leads to lower per unit production costs, which results in thicker operating margins for upstream oil and gas companies. EOG Resources’ average initial production (IP) rate of crude oil from a normalized 5,300-foot lateral well in the Eagle Ford play has increased from around 1,500 barrels per day in 2011 to over 2,000 barrels per day in 2013.

During the 2014 third quarter earnings call, the company announced that the use of its proprietary high-density fracking technique is yielding significant productivity gains (around 40%) in the Eagle Ford Shale. Going forward, we expect EOG Resources' well productivity to improve further on increasing estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well, due to technological advancements in fracking techniques.

DECLINING WELL COSTS

Continuous improvements in drilling efficiency are leading to lower cash costs per well for EOG Resources. The company’s average completed well cost (CWC) for a normalized 5,300-foot lateral well in the Eagle Ford shale has declined from $7.2 million in 2011 to $6.1 million in 2013. Last year (2014), it is estimated to have declined further to around $5.5 million/well.

hxxp://www.trefis.com/stock/eog/model/trefis?freeAccessToken=PROVIDER_3ea352a59397baa01c919bd500159578dac8ff46

-----------------------------------------------------------------

$5.5mln per shale well (drill&frac) for 2014????

I cannot see many offshore plays, especially marginal ones like Traps NS plays or PVR's Barryroe and Spanish-Point competing with the core US shale plays.


Cash

[cyan] 04/3/2015 13:20

3,731,414 sold this morning. The important question is, who bought?.
Imo we will see a holdings rns very soon.

Brent now $60.72

[cyan] 28/2/2015 10:49

Brent closed the week at $62.18.

[pro_s2009] 28/2/2015 04:09

11th successive week of US active oil rig numbers declining.

This past week minus another 43 and now 502 less rigs active this year compared to the same time period last year.

Whilst no immediate reaction to supply there will be a significant fall in oil supply early next year and throughout 2016. The more rigs that stop working now the bigger the surge upwards will be 2016/17 as oil supply falls will be met with boom of oil demand due to the effect of low prices now - more cars, more motorbikes, more chemical demand - the underlying demand is being built up by low prices whilst at the same time the ability to supply more oil in future is being reduced - the perfect storm.

My crystal ball says we have 6 to 9 months ahead of consolidation in the oil and gas industry - the big boys picking up the smaller ones and building their asset portfolios - the ones who were swimming without any trunks on (like TRAP) being caught out by the tide going out - and then an almighty correction upwards will occur - back to over 100US$ a barrel with a potential spike in excess of 150US$ a barrel.



.

[cyan] 26/2/2015 10:31

Its encouraging to see Brent now at $62.33 . Next significant target imo is $70. Because the present flow rate is rather on the low side this translates to a higher cost per barrel.
Over $70 should see TRAP around breakeven. At that level , and if the share price is sub 1p ; I believe TRAP an excellent buy.
On worst case scenario then ,of a decommissioning in a year combined with a NIOBE failure; I still see a liquidation value at just over 1p a share to be returned to shareholders.

The big question is how much compensation we get from TOTAL?.

The exciting wild card is ; What value if NIOBE is a great success?