Thames Water 26 Discussion Threads

[shiningstar] 30/4/2004 00:26

guys and girls can anyone tell me why the share price has fallen back so much since the companies launch? Sounds like a good innovative idea and they appear to be obtaining a lot of contracts?

[dell314] 29/4/2004 19:30

stacks - there are two trades, 120k at 17p and 100k at 18p reported after 6pm.
I believe they are the buys that pushed EVO off the offer and have removed a sizeable chunk of the overhang. I'd also now be pretty sure that that 30k at 17p was also a buy FWIW.

Rgds
dell

[stacks] 29/4/2004 18:56

220,000.. I dont understand what you meam Paul?

[paulkent] 29/4/2004 18:23

well as far as i can see thats the only real large volume traded for over the last three weeks..so i wonder if those 220,000 were the pending sales which have dragged it down so much??..2% of company in total i think...seems strange tho but maybe now theyve gone things will pick up?

[kevster] 29/4/2004 17:06

The amount of news on the website from January to April suggests the company is getting a whole lot more recognition than in the past two years.



Above is the article suggesting a small expected profit to December 2004. Also interesting is Joe Tighe commenting in another that the time for dot com over valuations is finished just as the company was due to float at £12.1m...



Always dangerous investing in a company with a historically low (very) turnover but news suggests better times ahead,

Until tomorrow,

Kev

[paulkent] 29/4/2004 17:00

just thought id check back thru RNS's to see if theyd added expensive Directors since the interims..and actually they lost the FD (personal reasons) and have added a nonexec chairman since then...wouldve thought that would have saved money if anything??..wonder if part of the loss of confidence by any large holders who might therefore have sold was because they havent replaced the FD?..

[stacks] 29/4/2004 16:49

I would have though anything under 50p would be a good buy in..

If they are ony burning 700k per year (current evidence) with the possibility of being in profit for next interims, then they will be in a position where they have cash in bank of 1m+ and bringing a profit.

[paulkent] 29/4/2004 16:42

agree with all the above...maybe they floated at too high a valuation last year, and a drop or gradula drift down was always on the cards..and maybe of late some big holders decided to cut their losses and that fuelled it further..but my hope is that the drops been overdone in the absence of anything particulalry negative, and that they are still in a sector which seems about as exciting in terms of growth as any out there..hopefully more people will take this view before or after results..and anything at all positive in results or beforehand could see mkt cap go back to £5mill plus just as quick as it dropped..

[kevster] 29/4/2004 16:39

Stacks,

This is a difficult stock to trade, i don't think there is an overhang here, maybe its ready to bounce? or not? i guess we'll see tomorrow, but increasing the spread won't encourage buyers, though at 20p it looks cheap and a few days ago it was 25p,

Kev

[stacks] 29/4/2004 16:38

kevster... that was my point. Unless somehow they have used up some serious cash relative to interims, cash in bank is about equal to current market cap. That seems to be a very good incentive to have a little in here.

[kevster] 29/4/2004 16:35

I also note that at the end of November, they had nine live sites, at the beginning of February they had eleven, and have signed two new contracts since then.

If their business model works there should be some evidence in the results. However, the second half may not be too amazing as they were growing from a very small initial revenue base,

Kev

[stacks] 29/4/2004 16:35

Nissi... it was you. I was busy try to get a tr4ade together as they were offering 18.75, and then the next minute it had popped up another 10%!!!

[kevster] 29/4/2004 16:24

O.K i've taken a dip, if my thinking is correct, and i base it on the interim results:

2 Reorganisation costs

These costs arose entirely as the result of the corporate transactions that took
place on 19 May 2003 as described in note 1 above and did not result in any cash
out flow.

Reorganisation costs
2 (510,579)

Retained loss for the period

(846,088)

What this means to me is that these costs are one off and will not be reflected in the second half. (Though other costs may have arisen)

Cash at bank and in hand

2,692,25

Net current assets

2,027,530

O.K the bottom line is they had £2m at the interims, and they are expected to make a small profit in their next financial year. They should be earning from the project implementations and growth figures on the platform from September to November were promising 29% if i remember correctly.

Recent contract signings, add to the present and future.

Concerns.

Will they have enough money?

They'll have to be burning some serious cash somewhere to run out in the next six months when they should be breaking even. Trading update in November said that the delays were being experienced, but project completed at the beginning of February in time for the superbowl.

The news could be bad or it could be alright, even if it is alright there should be a rise, currently valued at cash at the interims, would any of the bookmakers be interested at this price?

Kev

[nissi beach] 29/4/2004 16:18

thanks lets hope these have just as good 1st birthday ie go up 25p

[paulkent] 29/4/2004 16:14

good on ya nissi! (HAppy Birthday for sat'day by the way!)

[nissi beach] 29/4/2004 16:10

i couldn't resist a small purchase

[pictureframe] 29/4/2004 16:08

Well done guys, spread it bad new though !!

[paulkent] 29/4/2004 16:06

ooooh...offer up 2p in the last two hours...maybe this is the start of unstoppable momentum?!!!

[paulkent] 29/4/2004 15:51

yes stacks..twas me..decided to jump in..same reservations as you so small play, but was jsut so impressd with sbt numbers and the growth theyre reporting that it made sense for me to chuck some of the cash i had doing nothing into something that might be a bit of a decent recovery play in the right sector if the potential bad news doesnt materialise or is over factored in...and i totally take ur point dell..no more yoo references!!..promise!..also agree lack of decent buying isnt great..very similar last year with....ooops...almost..!!!!

[stacks] 29/4/2004 15:43

only pattern in the chart beside the continuos decline is that after every severe drop there has been a very small pick-up and each time it has been bigger than the last....

[stacks] 29/4/2004 15:41

30K trade was not a T trade. Open market, so regular Jo I would suspect. Got twitch and sold.

As I mentioned earlier, they only nudged the bid down when they received it, yet were moving the price down quite quickly on the smaller sells.

Anyway, I have some reservations which is why I have only made a small purchase. I was looking at 50k purchase as a bet against this just being a small cap, no history (chart, trading), selling drop looking for a bottom and was going to try and help it find one. Also a punt against the results being OK which will very quickly sure the price up here.

One point of note though is no buying from anyone of note despite price drop since float

[pictureframe] 29/4/2004 15:36

Good luck with you purchase guys, I will wait for results..if I miss 50% rise then thats safer than losing the lot.

[dell314] 29/4/2004 15:30

Paul/Stacks - I'm just wary that unless that 30k trade was EVO letting stock go at a considerable discount, then there is no sign of any large buys yet to help clear our seller, although I guess they'd be delayed considerably.

Although I generally hate BBs, where rampers compare their stock to YOO, I suppose this has some parallels with a large potential pay-per-use market.

Rgds
dellramper

[stacks] 29/4/2004 15:25

Paul... was the 5k buy yours?

I got into YOO at 2.3p and doubled up at 4.8ish I think. Then went back in at 7 and sold at 12.

My original purchase in YOO was 5 grand. No obvioulsy woulh have been nice to stay in for the ride!!!

Same is not going to happen here as time frame is different, however there is plenty of opportunity over the coming years, and the other one is that they end up getting taken over. If they did it would be at a price far higher than this otherwise the board would not go for it. (Major holders)

[paulkent] 29/4/2004 15:18

ha..well at least there are two of us who like it stacks!