Total Share Discussion Threads

[sarkasm] 01/11/2019 13:28

Investors want just one thing from the world's biggest oil companies: cold, hard cash. But it is becoming harder for the oil giants to deliver.

Companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell PLC and BP PLC have long used hefty and reliable dividends to keep investors on board in a sector that has volatile profits tied to commodity prices. The importance of the payments has only grown recently, as investors have become wary of the companies due to short-term concerns about oil overabundance, and long-term fears that climate change and electric vehicles cloud the future of fossil fuels.

But as the companies throw money at investors through dividends and share buybacks to keep them from fleeing, the payouts have begun to strain their balance sheets.

Exxon and France's Total SA haven't generated enough cash this year to cover new expenses and dividends, according to FactSet data and company disclosures. BP was able to cover its dividend, but the company's debt levels rose relative to its market capitalization. Shell needed asset sales to help cover dividends and buybacks.

Energy has been the worst performing sector of the S&P 500 for more than a decade, and the third-quarter earnings have continued a lackluster streak that has lasted throughout the year. Exxon, which remains under pressure to return to its practice of buying back billions of dollars in shares annually, reported net income of $3.17 billion, down about 50% from the same period a year ago, but slightly better than what analysts had expected. Exxon increased its annual dividend in the first quarter, a step the company has taken for 37 years in a row.

Chevron Corp. reported net income of $2.6 billion from July to September, down from $4 billion in the same period in 2018. The company increased share buybacks to $1.25 billion in the quarter.

Shell's U.S. shares fell 3.5% Thursday after shell warned that it might not finish buying back $25 billion in shares by 2020 as originally expected. BP's U.S. shares fell by more than 3.3% Tuesday after BP reported a loss and failed to increase its dividend.

Oil and gas companies now make up about 5% of the S&P 500 index, down from 14% a decade ago, according to Evercore ISI. Their middling recent returns limit their ability to step up shareholder payments that investors increasingly demand as a key step that would bring them back into the sector.

"Eventually, oil demand is going to go down," said Kevin Holt, a senior portfolio manager for Invesco Ltd., which has more than $1 trillion in assets under management. "With that question of terminal value, it's even more important that companies ramp up the cash return. Why grow the business if we won't need as much oil in 20 years?"

While Mr. Holt says oil demand may not decline for two decades, investors now want more cash returns because companies spent too much when prices were high, setting the stage for poor performance when prices fell.

Investors have long gotten generous dividends from big oil. In the U.K., Shell and BP combined pay one in every seven pounds of the FTSE 100 dividend, said Jason Kenney, an analyst at Spanish bank Santander. Shell hasn't cut its dividend since 1945.

Giant oil companies have found this harder to sustain since 2016, when oil prices plummeted to below $30 a barrel, from above $100. For at least two years, many big oil companies were generating a free cash flow that was either negative or below the combination of their capital-expenditure commitments and their dividends, said Mr. Kenney.

Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, has been an exception to this trend. For years, Chevron spent far more on new oil projects than it generated from operations, but the company has entered a harvest mode in recent years as those developments began production. In the first half of this year, Chevron generated $7.3 billion in excess cash, more than enough to pay for about $4.5 billion in dividends and almost $1 billion in buybacks.

Many big oil companies have relied heavily on asset sales to help pay for buybacks, dividends and in some cases even fund new investments, as the amount of cash they generated wasn't nearly enough to cover those costs. Since 2014, Exxon, Shell, BP, Total and Chevron have sold off more than $110 billion in assets, according to FactSet data.

That strategy worked as long as assets sold for a high enough price. But the lack of investor interest in fossil fuel companies has brought new challenges in this arena as well. BP sold off some U.S. assets at lower prices than expected in the quarter and was forced to book a $2.6 billion write-down.

Exxon has so far fared better as it launched a plan to sell $15 billion of assets by 2021. In September, the company announced a $4.5 billion sale of properties in Norway. Analysts at Mizuho Securities had pegged the value at about $3.3 billion. Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods said the company reached about a third of its target, and the company continues to weigh potential asset sales in Australia.

Exxon's oil and gas production rose by about 3% to 3.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter, driven primarily by its massive ramp-up in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.

It reported a third-quarter profit of $3.17 billion, or 75 cents a share, compared with $6.24 billion, or $1.46 a share, a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet were expecting earnings of 69 cents a share. Revenue fell to $65.05 billion from $76.61 billion a year earlier. Analysts had expected $60.90 billion of revenue in the quarter, according to FactSet.

Write to Bradley Olson at [e-mail] and Sarah McFarlane at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 01, 2019 08:59 ET (12:59 GMT)

[waldron] 01/11/2019 07:52

As i mentioned, best to double check

changes might well be made upwards

[essentialinvestor] 01/11/2019 07:22

Am I right in thinking Total dividends are subject to a 15% withholding tax
for UK residents? Thanks.

[waldron] 01/11/2019 06:17

Size of floating wind prize ‘immense’ and should involve oil majors, Equinor chief says
by David McPhee
01/11/2019, 6:00 am



The size of the prize in floating offshore wind is “immense” and should involve the big oil and gas majors, according to the renewables boss of Norwegian energy giant Equinor.

Stephen Bull, the company’s vice president for wind and low carbon development, said his firm’s plans to power oil and gas fields with floating wind could be a “huge opportunity” to decarbonise the North Sea.

But he also hit out at those who criticise big North Sea oil and gas firms looking to enter the renewables sector.

He said: “Those people should really ask themselves why they are doing that.”

He admitted that “occasionally there can be a little bit of tension” between the oil and gas and the renewable energy sector, but he assured the audience yesterday that Equinor, Shell, BP and Total take the energy transition “extremely seriously”.

He added: “This is a fundamental moment for the energy transition.

“Integrating renewables with oil and gas is a central part of this and the know-how, the muscle, the global supply chain and the money they have can actually make this work.

“If you are a champion of the energy transition and reducing CO2, then you should be cheering on some of the major oil and gas companies in that direction.”

Equinor is pushing to make the technology commercial while also looking at whether oil and gas assets can be powered by floating wind in Norway.

It’s commissioned 88MW Hywind Tampen wind farm aims to cut carbon emissions at Norway’s Snorre and Gullfaks fields by 200,000 tonnes by powering the installations.

The 11-turbine project is a more than £400m investment by Equinor.

Mr Bull described the project as “incredibly important” for Equinor and the energy transition.

He said: “We want to use this example so that it could potentially market floating offshore wind linked to oil and gas globally.

“This is potential a market in itself.”

If successful, Mr Bull said his firm would like to replicate the idea in the UK North Sea.

He said: “The total size of the prize for offshore wind, particularly floating wind, is immense.

“According to a report last week, we could see 350 gigawatts (GW) in the North Sea by 250.

“It’s a huge opportunity for this sector.”

Equinor revealed last month it was following the next Scottish North Sea offshore wind leasing round “very closely”.

It confirmed that it plans to develop more floating wind farms after the success of its 9-turbine Hywind Scotland project off the coast.

Equinor said it was “confident” its next project would be a 200 megawatt (MW) commercial-scale floating wind farm.

The firm said earlier this month that the Scottish and UK supply chain has “much to offer” in the development of advanced technology and innovation.

But added that “for the moment” it still needs production support to make projects commercially viable.

Mr Bull said a “sense of urgency” needed to be adopted to get the sector off the ground, adding that he wanted to speak to as many companies in Scotland as he could.

[sarkasm] 31/10/2019 18:59

France's Total finds buyer for contaminated Urals crude

Author Amanda Flint William Bland Editor Dan Lalor Commodity Oil

London — Seven months after loading a cargo of Urals crude that was contaminated with excess organic chlorides, Total said Thursday a trading house bought the oil in a tender on Wednesday.

The price, a steep discount to the market, highlighted the ongoing costs of the contamination of the Russian crude earlier this year.

The sale came on the same day that Hungary settled with Russia over the contaminated oil that it had received through the Druzhba pipeline as part of the same episode, which damaged the reputation of the world's second largest crude exporter. None of the parties to the agreement -- Lukoil, MOL and Transneft -- gave financial details.

Totsa awarded its tender for a 100,000 mt cargo -- equivalent to 720,000 barrels -- of contaminated oil to an undisclosed energy trader on Wednesday at a discount of more than $25/b to Dated Brent, Totsa -- Total's trading arm -- said Thursday.

The cargo was sold on an FOB basis and was expected to be lifted in November.

A representative from Totsa said the tender "was sold at a hefty loss [but] we have been able to sell everything".

Total has held similar tenders in recent months that failed to find any interest, and the conditions of Wednesday's tender showed flexibility on the part of the French major, with bidders able to request as little as 50,000 barrels and choose between oil that contained organic chlorides in a concentration of 27.3 ppm and 22.1 ppm.

Exports of Urals crude via the 1 million b/d Druzhba pipeline system were suspended mid-April after dangerous levels of corrosive organic chlorides were found in crude transported via the northern route into Belarus.

At the height of the episode, the levels of organic chlorides detected in the Urals stream at Ust-Luga rose to more than 60 ppm in several instances.

-- Amanda Flint, [e-mail]

-- William Bland, [e-mail]

-- Edited by Dan Lalor, [e-mail]

[waldron] 31/10/2019 17:00

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 59.39 -1.41%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.59 -1.91%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.66 -1.19%
(WTI) 54.12 USD -1.35%


FTSE 100
7,248.38 -1.12%
Dow Jones
26,955.55 -0.85%
CAC 40
5,729.86 -0.62%
SBF 120
4,519.84 -0.57%
Euro STOXX 50
3,609.51 -0.25%
DAX
12,866.79 -0.34%
Ftse Mib
22,757.2 +0.49%



Eni
13.57 -0.93%



Total
47.135 -1.11%


Engie
14.995 +1.11%

Orange
14.44 +0.80%

IAG
Price (GBX) 531.20+2.19% (Up +11.40)


Bp
489.3 -2.26%

Vodafone
157.4 -0.09%

Royal Dutch Shell A
2,233 -4.12%


Royal Dutch Shell B
2,218 -4.50%

[waldron] 31/10/2019 16:07

ei

how do you define medium term

i find that renewables are not underestimated but certainly might take longer to substantially claim a gidantic slice of the cake

i like to be prepared, so buying saft was a good start for TOTAL WHICH I FOLLOW

Engie too is into renewables


must admit i like a portfolio or two to spread the risk

Due to market volatility i trend to be in and out of shares these and avoid putting my eggs in one basket

[essentialinvestor] 31/10/2019 14:40

The issue is though battery technology is developing at a rapid rate.
Is the medium term threat from renewables underestimated?.

[sarkasm] 31/10/2019 10:38

Oil Companies To Remain A Force Despite Low Prices, Renewable Energy Threats
By Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D.Commodities1 hour ago (Oct 31, 2019 05:22AM ET)
1

Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D.
Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D.

Articles (209)

Author's Publications

Saudi, Inc.: The Arabian Kingdom's Pursuit of Profit and Power

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Oil and gas companies are posting their third quarter earnings this week and next. So far, the results are varied despite dismal market sentiment on demand growth and generally low oil prices.

BP (NYSE:BP) posted $2.3 billion in profits, beating expectations from analysts by $0.3 billion. Still, net profit dropped by 41% this quarter, which was enough to push shares down by 3.8%. The main reasons BP cited for the decline were lower oil prices, maintenance and “weather impacts.”
BP Weekly ChartBP Weekly Chart

On the other hand, Total (NYSE:TOT) posted $3.02 billion in profits this quarter, which is an increase from its Q2 profits of $2.9 billion. As well, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) reported $3.1 billion in earnings, a significant rise from the $1.6 billion posted in Q2.

The message here is that low oil prices are not an excuse for poor earnings. In fact, many companies were able to increase their profit on their downstream refining operations, which are, in fact, aided by lower oil prices. Even when oil prices are low, earnings will not necessarily be bad for the big international oil firms.

Earnings are forecast to be bleak for many U.S. shale oil drillers, but if they manage to overshoot analyst projections, the damage to share prices may be limited.

The prospects for oil companies in the longer term are likely better than the current trend indicates. At an investment conference in Riyadh, the outgoing U.S. energy secretary Rick Perry explained that batteries are the Holy Grail of “this whole energy thing” and it is imperative to find a way to store energy for long periods of time in commercial ways.

Admitting something rarely heard from the political scene, Perry essentially said that battery technology—for example, used in electric vehicles or proposed as storage for wind and solar power—is not yet advanced enough to effectively replace hydrocarbon fuels.

While this sentiment is not popular at a finance and technology conference, it indicates that international bureaucrats know deep down that there is no immediate future for renewable energy to replace oil and gas.

The move to non-carbon energies is predicated on the ability to improve battery technology, especially capacity and storage. Because this is such a big if, and we don’t know when or how it may come about, oil, gas and even coal, to some extent, could remain an essential part of transportation and power generation for longer than the current models predict.

[waldron] 31/10/2019 07:40

Credit Suisse remains with outperform , target reduced from 60 to 58 EUR.

[waldron] 30/10/2019 21:22

Total’s profit fall 24% in Q3 on lower energy prices
Total’s profit fall 24% in Q3 on lower energy prices
30 October 2019 06:12 PM

Mubasher: Total on Wednesday reported that its net income dropped by 24% year-on-year during the third quarter, due to lower oil and gas prices, according to the French energy giant’s financial results.

Total’s adjusted net income came in at $3.02 billion in Q3-19, compared with $2.89 billion in Q3-18, while earnings per share (EPS) dropped to $1.13 from $1.47.

The company’s upstream profit dropped by 29% to $1.73 billion, while its profit from downstream operations declined by 3% to $1.37 billion.

“The group continues to achieve solid results despite a third-quarter environment compared to a year ago that was marked by an 18% decrease in the Brent price to $62 per barrel [pb] and gas prices that fell by about 55% in Europe and Asia,” Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne said in a statement.

The oil and gas major said that record production growth during the period between July and September helped maintain a steady cash flow.

Hydrocarbon production rose by 8.4% year-on-year to 3.040 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), compared with 2.804 million boepd last year.

Total’s debt-adjusted cash flow dropped by 2% to $7.4 billion in the third quarter.

Looking ahead, Total expected its production growth would hit 9% this year owing to ramp-ups on projects started last year and start-ups since the beginning of this year, including Kaombo Sul in Angola and Culzean in the UK North Sea.

[waldron] 30/10/2019 16:55

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 60.48 -1.22%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.64 -0.35%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.68 +1.52%
(WTI) 54.51 USD -1.75%


FTSE 100
7,330.78 +0.34%
Dow Jones
27,087.07 +0.06%
CAC 40
5,765.87 +0.45%
SBF 120
4,545.63 +0.32%
Euro STOXX 50
3,618.44 -0.08%
DAX
12,910.23 -0.23%
Ftse Mib
22,612.38 -0.30%
Índice Bovespa
107,160.85 -0.37%


Eni
13.698 -0.94%


Total
47.665 -0.01%

Engie
14.83 +0.20%

Orange
14.325 +1.09%

IAG
Price (GBX) 519.80 -0.73% (Down -3.80)


Bp
500.6 +1.63%

Vodafone
157.54 -0.42%

Royal Dutch Shell A
2,329 -0.02%

Royal Dutch Shell B
2,322.5 -0.51%

[waldron] 30/10/2019 15:40

Total SA (FP.FR) reported its third-quarter results on Wednesday. Here is how the results came in:



NET PROFIT: Total's net profit in the third quarter fell to $2.80 billion from $3.96 billion in the year-earlier period. Adjusted net income came in at $3.02 billion, ahead of a FactSet-compiled consensus that had forecast it at $2.79 billion.



PRODUCTION: Total's third-quarter production hit a record high, helping offset the negative impact of lower energy prices. Hydrocarbon production jumped 8% to 3.04 million barrels of oil equivalent a day compared with 2.80 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in the year-earlier period. Production was boosted by a number of projects, including the Yamal liquefied natural gas project in Russia and Ichthys in Australia. The company said it expects its 2019 production to grow by 9%.



WHAT WE WATCHED:



- INTEGRATED GAS, RENEWABLES AND POWER: Total reported a strong performance in its integrated gas, renewables and power business segment, where production rose 45% to 539,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day compared with 371,000 daily barrels of oil equivalent the same period a year earlier.



- DIVIDEND: The company declared an interim dividend of EUR0.68 a share for, a 6% increase compared to the previous year.



Write to Giulia Petroni at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 30, 2019 10:48 ET (14:48 GMT)

[maywillow] 30/10/2019 13:07

French oil major Total SA (FP.FR) released its third quarter earnings Wednesday, with boosted production helping the company counteract slumping oil prices. Here are some other remarks from the report:



On oil prices:

"Since the start of the fourth quarter 2019, Brent has traded around $60 a barrel on average. The environment remains volatile, with uncertainty about hydrocarbon demand growth related to the outlook for global economic growth and in a context of geopolitical instability."



On forward production:

"Production growth should reach 9% in 2019, thanks to ramp-ups on projects started in 2018, startups since the beginning of the year, including Kaombo Sul in Angola and Culzean in the U.K. North Sea, Johan Sverdrup in Norway, and the upcoming Iara 1 in Brazil.

"The group will continue to implement its strategy for profitable growth on the integrated gas and low carbon electricity chains, and the iGRP segment will benefit in 2020 from the start-ups of Yamal LNG train 4 [in Russia] as well as Cameron LNG trains 2&3 [in Louisiana]."



On downstream:

"Despite volatile European refining margins, the downstream is well positioned to generate cash flow close to $7 billion in 2019."



On gas, renewables and power:

"Total LNG sales increased by 20% compared to last year for the third quarter thanks to the ramp-up of Yamal LNG and Ichthys [in Australia] as well as the startup of the first train at Cameron LNG in the United States. Total LNG sales increased by 71% in the first nine months 2019 for the same reasons as the acquisition of the portfolio of LNG contracts from Engie in the third quarter 2018."



On dividend and buybacks:

"Taking into account the stronger visibility on the Group's future, the Board of Directors decided on September 23, 2019, to accelerate dividend growth for the coming years with guidance of increasing the dividend 5-6% per year. In addition, the group will continue to buy back shares within the framework of its $5 billion share buyback program over the 2018-20 period at $60 a barrel with the cumulative projected amount of $3.25 billion by the end of 2019."



Write to David Hodari at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 30, 2019 08:08 ET (12:08 GMT)

[waldron] 30/10/2019 08:57

Total SA (FP.FR) said Wednesday that net profit fell in the third quarter as production hit a record high, helping offset lower oil and gas prices.

The French oil major said third-quarter net profit fell to $2.80 billion from $3.96 billion in the year-earlier period. Adjusted net income was $3.02 billion, ahead of a FactSet-compiled consensus that forecasted adjusted net income at $2.79 billion.

Total's hydrocarbon production jumped 8% to 3.04 million barrels of oil equivalent a day compared with 2.80 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in the year-earlier period. Production was boosted by a number of projects, including the Yamal's liquefied natural gas project in Russia and Ichthys in Australia, the company said.

The company says it expects its full-year production to grow by 9%.

Total reported a strong performance in its integrated gas, renewables and power business, where production rose 45% to 539,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day compared with 371,000 daily barrels of oil equivalent the same period a year earlier.

"The environment remains volatile, with uncertainty about hydrocarbon demand growth related to the outlook for global economic growth and in a context of geopolitical instability," the company said.

Sales in the third quarter were down to $48.59 billion compared with $54.72 billion the previous year, Total said.

During the quarter, Total closed the acquisition of Anadarko's 26.5% stake in Mozambique's liquefied natural gas project for $3.9 billion.

The company declared 2019 interim dividend at EUR0.68 a share, a 6% increase compared to the previous year.



Write to Giulia Petroni at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 30, 2019 04:38 ET (08:38 GMT)

[waldron] 29/10/2019 17:03

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 61.50 +0.41%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.65 +1.07%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.68 +4.85%
(WTI) 55.71 USD -0.1


FTSE 100
7,306.26 -0.34%
Dow Jones
27,117.11 +0.10%
CAC 40
5,740.14 +0.17%
SBF 120
4,531.29 +0.20%
Euro STOXX 50
3,621.38 -0.26%
DAX
12,939.62 -0.02%
Ftse Mib
22,684.6 -0.05%



Eni
13.828 -0.79%



Total
47.67 -0.38%

Engie
14.8 -0.40%

Orange
14.17 -2.58%

IAG
Price (GBX) 523.60 +0.81% (Up +4.20)

Bp
492.55 -3.80%

Vodafone
158.2 -1.22%

Royal Dutch Shell A
2,329.5 -0.02%

Royal Dutch Shell B
2,334.5 +0.32%

[waldron] 28/10/2019 16:55

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 61.43 -0.95%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.63 -0.35%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.54 +3.13%
(WTI) 55.8 USD -1.54%


FTSE 100
7,331.28 +0.09%
Dow Jones
27,052.56 +0.35%
CAC 40
5,730.57 +0.15%
SBF 120
4,522.03 +0.21%
Euro STOXX 50
3,630.73 +0.20%
DAX
12,941.71 +0.37%
Ftse Mib
22,712.19 +0.46%


Eni
13.938 -0.73%

Total
47.85 +0.32%

Engie
14.86 -0.44%

Orange
14.545 -0.92%

IAG
Price (GBX) 519.40 -0.23% (Down -1.20)



Bp
512 +0.00%

Vodafone
160.16 -0.27%

Royal Dutch Shell A
2,330 +0.19%

Royal Dutch Shell B
2,327 +0.13%

[waldron] 25/10/2019 17:01

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 61.68 +0.02%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.63 +0.18%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.46 -0.16%
(WTI) 56.37 USD +0.50%

FTSE 100
7,324.47 -0.05%
Dow Jones
26,996.53 +0.71%
CAC 40
5,722.15 +0.67%
SBF 120
4,512.7 +0.64%
Euro STOXX 50
3,623.88 +0.06%
DAX
12,894.51 +0.17%
Ftse Mib
22,585.89 +0.26%


Eni
14.04 -0.69%


Total
47.695 +0.41%

Engie
14.925 -1.26%

Orange
14.68 -0.34%

IAG
Price (GBX) 520.60 +0.50% (Up +2.60)

Bp
512 +0.39%

Vodafone
160.6 -0.37%

Royal Dutch Shell
2,325.5 +0.17%

Royal Dutch Shell
2,324 +0.48%

MONTHS END WILL TELL ALL