Total Share Discussion Threads

[la forge] 25/2/2017 18:51

Norway’s Statoil ASA, the U.K.’s Royal Dutch Shell Plc and France’s Total SA have paid billions since 2013 to gain access to Brazil’s fertile offshore oil riches. They’re now seen as having the best chance to expand when Brazil later this year auctions four more blocks in the prolific play known as the pre-salt along the country’s east coast.

The region already produces about 1.3 million barrels of crude a day. By 2023, that’s set to surpass 2 million barrels a day, eclipsing Norway and a majority of OPEC producers. Such a move offers the Europeans a solid return on their investment and Brazil perhaps its best chance at an economic revival following a major corruption probe involving the state-owned energy company, Petroleo Brasileiro SA.

The Europeans “definitely have a leg up, there’s no question,” said Cleveland Jones, a geologist at Rio de Janeiro State University, citing the companies familiarity with the government and the region’s deep-water geology. “They’ve done what is a very strategically positive thing for them, though it doesn’t close the door to anybody.”

The decision to open Brazil’s most prized energy discovery to outsiders was spurred by the financial and legal struggles at Petrobras following a sprawling corruption scandal. During the commodities boom, the company lost billions investing in unprofitable refineries and subsidizing fuel imports, resulting in the loss of its investment grade rating.
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The pre-salt region was formed when the South American and African continents began separating more than 100 million years ago, gaining its name from a thick salt layer that blankets the deposits. Production of oil and natural gas began in 2010 at the Lula deposit, which has become Brazil’s largest producing field at 711,000 barrels a day.

Production Peak

The National Petroleum Agency, or ANP, expects more than half of Brazil’s output to come from pre-salt wells when production peaks at nearly 4.5 million barrels a day in 2025, according to a presentation on its website.

Last year, Statoil forged a $2.5 billion deal with Petrobras for a majority stake in a bloc that holds the region’s Carcara deposit. The Stavanger-based producer has said it will compete in in the next round of bidding for an adjacent area to control the entire deposit.

Shell, meanwhile, is the operator of the Gato do Mato field, one of the first auctioned off by Brazil. That block also stretches beyond the original concession boundaries, and the company has said it too will bid in the upcoming round.

Total’s Stake

In December, Total agreed to buy a controlling stake in the Lapa field in a $2.2 billion deal that also includes a minority stake in the Berbigao field that is set to start pumping in 2018.

While Total’s press office declined to comment on whether the company will join the bidding in September, Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne extolled the virtues of Brazil’s oil future in a Bloomberg television interview in New York on Tuesday.

“In the oil and gas business you go where you find oil and gas,” Pouyanne said. “One of Total’s strengths is deepwater; we are able to develop deep-water fields. In Africa and Brazil is the obvious place where we can find these types of huge resources.”

Total has a history of teaming up with national oil companies around the world, and is interested in working with Petrobras as a minority partner as well as operating its own projects in Brazil, Pouyanne said.

The other two areas up for auction, Sapinhoa and Tartaruga Mestica, are operated by Petrobras.

Brazil is also planning to offer an estimated three unlicensed pre-salt areas in November where companies other than Petrobras can bid to control operations after Congress changed legislation last year. This second bidding round is likely to draw the widest interest and bring new operators to Brazil’s oil industry, said Marcio Felix, the Energy Ministry’s oil and gas secretary, in an interview last month.

Future Bidding

The 2017 bidding schedule also includes a round for deep-water fields outside of the pre-salt later in the year, and another in May for 10 mature fields for small and mid-sized producers. The government hasn’t announced specific areas for the later round.

Petrobras is also likely to continue selling offshore acreage to slash debt, offering another avenue for oil companies to expand in Brazil, said Horacio Cuenca, an analyst at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd.

“If international companies come and make the right offer, Petrobras will accept,” said Cuenca. “Especially anything that has development capex ahead of it.’’

[maywillow] 24/2/2017 18:15

Iran to sign Total contract within two months
TEHRAN, 2 days ago

Iran will finalise the first of its new contracts with French oil giant Total within two months, a senior government official said.

Recent comments by Total's chief executive indicated it was awaiting feedback from the US, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh was quoted as saying in an Iran Daily report, which cited Mehr News Agency.

Total plans to invest in a $2 billion gas project in Iran by the summer, but the decision depends on the renewal of US sanctions waivers, chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said earlier this month, according to the report.

Zanganeh said that no decision has been taken to stop the signing of new contracts but that some contracts have not been finalized since it is a time consuming process.

[grupo] 22/2/2017 21:08

Total CEO says OPEC needs to prolong cuts to eliminate glut
By John Micklethwait and Francois de Beaupuy on 2/22/2017

NEW YORK (Bloomberg) -- OPEC and Russia will need to prolong their six-month deal to cut oil output if they plan to trim the global inventory glut that has kept a lid on prices, said Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne.

“If they want really to have an impact on the market, which means to have the inventories going down because inventories are quite high, it will have to be extended beyond May,” Pouyanne said Tuesday in a Bloomberg television interview in New York. “I’m convinced that they will do it.”

The CEO of the French oil and gas company added that he plans to keep lowering its so-called break-even point -- the oil price at which cash flow covers spending and dividends -- because he’s “not fully convinced” that tough times for the industry are over. Factors including rising U.S. shale oil production and increasing output from Libya may continue to have a negative impact on prices, Pouyanne said.

Oil has held above $50/bbl OPEC and 11 other nations started trimming output from Jan. 1. The exporters group implemented about 90% of the pledged cuts last month and Goldman Sachs Group predicts the market will shift into supply deficit in the first half. At the same time, U.S. crude stockpiles have kept increasing to the highest level in more than three decades and oil drillers are deploying the most rigs since October 2015.

Trade Warning

Pouyanne also warned against mounting economic protectionism, especially in developed countries, saying it may lead to disaster. Free trade has helped reduce poverty in emerging markets, he said.

“This trend to have countries around the world thinking that it’s better to be inside their borders” than open to the world “will lead to catastrophe,” Pouyanne said. “Total is in favor of open trade and fair trade.”

His remarks come as the French presidential candidate for the National Front party, Marine Le Pen, is calling for France to increase trade barriers, abandon the common European currency and exit the European Union. She is rising in opinion polls ahead of elections in April and May.

The euro “is a powerful currency” which needs to be kept, the CEO of France’s largest company by market capitalization said. Voters’ support for Le Pen and the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union are “a question mark for ourselves, the global leaders.”

Trump Policies

Rather than set up their own trade barriers, Pouyanne urged the U.S. and Europe to limit themselves to fighting against “unfair” Chinese solar industry subsidies through the World Trade Organization. Total has a controlling stake in U.S. solar-panel maker SunPower Inc.

He expressed hope that U.S. President Donald Trump will maintain “policies in favor” of renewable energy. He also reiterated that Total will soon announce its decision on whether to develop a new petrochemical unit in Texas that will create jobs, and expand in liquefied natural gas to take advantage of cheap U.S. shale production.

Total said on Feb. 9 that it will increase its dividend by 1.6% and give the go-ahead for almost a dozen new projects in the next 18 months in countries including the U.S., Brazil and Iran, as it benefits from cost cuts and higher oil prices.

Regarding Iran, where Total has signed a pre-agreement to develop a gas field, Pouyanne said he was encouraged by recent comments from U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis. The French company will sign the contract if Iran respects the international nuclear treaty and if the U.S. sticks to it, he said.

Pouyanne also called for the U.S. and Europe to improve their dialog with Russia and work together in the fight against terrorism in the Middle East.

Relationships have been strained after Western powers imposed sanctions against the Kremlin when it annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region and backed pro-Russian rebels in the eastern part of the country. Total would prefer fewer sanctions against Russia, where the company is poised to complete a giant gas project with partners in the Yamal Peninsula, Pouyanne said.

[grupo guitarlumber] 09/2/2017 14:42

PARIS--French oil major Total SA (TOT) notched up better-than-expected fourth-quarter profit, reaping the benefit of heavy recent cost cuts, higher oil output, and the rebound in crude prices to above $50 a barrel.

The company said it is sufficiently confident about the outlook for the oil market to plan as many as 10 new projects within the next 18 months even though management intends to keep a lid on overall capital expenditure amid likely volatile crude prices.

Total posted net profit of $548 million in the three months to end-December, a swing from a net loss of $1.63 billion in the same period a year earlier, on a 12% jump in revenue to $42.28 billion.

When adjusted to exclude the effect of changes in inventories and other nonrecurring items, profit rose to 16% to $2.41 billion from $2.08 billion, ahead of the average analysts' forecast of $2.26 billion, the median estimate according to data provider FactSet.

Total booked a $1.86 billion depreciation charge on gas assets in the quarter. Net profit rose 22% in the year to Dec. 31 to $6.20 billion.

To offset the effects of falling oil and gas prices on its balance sheet, Total has carried out a widespread program to cut costs at all its units and scrambled to extract more oil from existing fields, accelerated new field developments and cut capital investment. The strategy helped the company book net profit of more than $1 billion in 2014 and in 2015.

Total said it raised output by 4.5% to 2.45 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2016 after a 14% increase in 2015.

The company said it declared a higher dividend of 2.45 euros ($2.62) a share.



-Write to Inti Landauro at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 09, 2017 02:55 ET (07:55 GMT)

[grupo guitarlumber] 09/2/2017 10:12

French Total gets highest profitability among majors in 2016
9 February 2017 12:34 (UTC+04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb.9

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

France’s Total oil and gas company has generated adjusted net income of $8.3 billion and had the highest profitability among majors in 2016, said the company’s chairman and CEO Patrick Pouyanne.

Pouyanne pointed out that the company’s resilience was supported by outstanding production growth over the past two years (14.3 percent, including 4.5 percent in 2016), said the message posted on Total’s website.

Total is continuing to cut costs with the objective of achieving $3.5 billion of cost savings in 2017 and bringing production costs down to 0.5 $/boe (barrel of oil equivalent) for the year, according to the Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2016 Results posted on the company’s website.

The company’s investments are expected to be $16-$17 billion in 2017, including resource acquisitions.

In 2017, Total’s breakeven will continue to fall, reaching less than 40 $/b pre-dividend. Cash flow from operations is expected to cover investments and the cash portion of the dividend at 50 $/b.

[grupo guitarlumber] 09/2/2017 10:02

Total Lifts Dividend, Plans Growth as Profits Beat Estimates
by Francois De Beaupuy
9 février 2017 à 08:00 UTC+1
9 février 2017 à 09:35 UTC+1

Company targets 10 upstream investment decisions in 18 months
Cash flow to fund dividend, spending at $50 a barrel in 2017

Total SA raised its dividend by 1.6 percent and said it may give the go-ahead for almost a dozen new projects in the next 18 months after fourth-quarter profit beat analysts’ estimates.

“We’re going to propose to increase the dividend as we have confidence in the future,” Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne told reporters in Paris. “My goal is to launch new projects to prepare the future, while remaining disciplined and cutting costs further because crude prices might drift lower.”

Patrick Pouyanne
Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

Total’s confident appraisal of the year ahead belied what was otherwise a difficult fourth quarter for major oil companies. The French producer’s peers BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. all fell short of analysts’ estimates as rising profits from oil and gas production failed to fully offset weaker earnings from refining and trading.

Adjusted net income climbed 16 percent from a year earlier to $2.41 billion due to rising oil and gas production and cost cuts, the company based in Courbevoie near Paris said Thursday. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected a profit of $2.23 billion.

Total shares gained as much as 2 percent and were up 0.3 percent at 46.95 euros as of 9:33 a.m. in Paris. The stock has climbed 28 percent in the past 12 months.
Funding Dividend

Adjusted net operating income jumped 51 percent from a year earlier to $1.13 billion in Total’s exploration and production business, and rose 13 percent to $1.14 billion in the refining and chemicals division. After writing down the value of gas assets in Australia, Angola and the U.K. due to falling oil and gas prices, Total reported net income of $548 million compared with a loss of $1.63 billion a year earlier.

The company said it would raise its quarterly dividend by 1 cent to 62 euro cents, the first increase in three years, while maintaining the option for shareholders to be paid with new Total shares. It said it should be able to fund operations and the cash part of its dividend without needing to borrow with crude at about $50 a barrel this year -- $5 lower than both its September estimate and the current price of Brent crude.

Exxon and Shell both said in the past week that cash flow covers their spending and dividends at current oil prices, while the U.K.’s BP needs Brent to rise to $60 a barrel this year to achieve that goal.

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The price rebound and lower drilling costs have encouraged Total to sign preliminary deals to produce gas in Iran and invest in oil projects from Brazil to Uganda. The final go-ahead for Iran’s South Pars 11 project may be made “before the summer” if the U.S. doesn’t impose new sanctions on Iran, the CEO said. The Libra 1 project in Brazil may also be approved within a similar time frame, Pouyanne said.

Investment Decisions

The company said it plans to make final investment decisions on 10 oil and gas production projects in the next 18 months, in countries including Nigeria, Angola, Azerbaijan and Argentina. It also expects to decide on a petrochemical project at Port Arthur in the U.S. this year.

Total reiterated its plan to boost oil and gas production by 5 percent a year from 2014 to 2020. Output increased by 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier to 2.462 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. Volumes will rise by more than 4 percent this year, helped by the ramp-up of fields started or acquired last year, it said.

Total cut operating costs by $2.8 billion last year compared with 2014, and aims to deepen these savings to $3.5 billion in 2017 and $4 billion in 2018. Organic investments, which include acquisitions of oil and gas fields, will be between $16 billion and $17 billion this year, the company said, down from $18.3 billion in 2016.

Net debt rose to $27.1 billion at the end of 2016 from $26.6 billion a year earlier as Total borrowed to make shareholder payouts. It completed the $3.2 billion sale of its Atotech unit last month, and may divest as much as $2 billion of pipelines and small fields this year, the CEO said.

The company reiterated a plan to cut its debt gearing to 20 percent in the medium term, from 27 percent at the end of 2016.
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[grupo guitarlumber] 09/2/2017 08:33

UPDATE 1-Oil major Total says final Iran project investment decision depends on renewal of U.S. waivers

(Adds detail, background)

By Bate Felix

Feb 9 French oil major Total plans to make a final investment decision on a $2 billion gas project in Iran by the summer, but the decision hinges on the renewal of U.S. sanctions waivers, the company's chief executive said on Thursday.

Total was the first Western energy company to sign a major deal with Tehran since the lifting of international sanctions against Iran. Its project aims to develop South Pars 11, which is part of the world's largest gas field.
PUBLICITÉ

Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne said South Pars 11 will be among a couple of projects to be approved by the company to start by the summer, if nothing is modified with regards to the sanctions.

"There are two executive orders that are supposed to be renewed before summer," he said, explaining that the administration of previous U.S. President Barack Obama had signed waivers suspending the sanctions.

"These are supposed to last about 18 months. So President Trump will have to, or not, renew these sanction waivers," Pouyanne told journalists in Paris.

New U.S. President Donald Trump has said the Iran nuclear deal, which ended a diplomatic standoff between Iran and six world powers over the country's nuclear policy and opens the way for western investment, was "the worst deal ever negotiated."

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, a former CEO of Total's rival Exxon Mobil, has called for a full review of the Iran nuclear agreement.

Pouyanne said that based on the nuclear deal that was signed, the U.S. government would have to prove that Iran had breached the agreement, for the new Trump-led administration to decide against renewing the waivers.
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"So, either the waivers are renewed and as such, respect the Iran nuclear deal, which will allow us to execute the contract and we'll do so, or they decide to tear up the Iran nuclear agreement," Pouyanne said.

"In that case, we'll not be able to work in Iran."

He added that there was uncertainty on what the new White House administration would do.

Pouyanne said the decision to go ahead with the gas deal last November was a 'win-win' one, and that Total had some guarantees in place that protects the company financially if the project does not go through. (Reporting by Bate Felix and Benjamin Mallet; Editing by Sudip Kar-Gupta)

[waldron] 03/2/2017 11:10

Dividends for holders of Total shares traded on the Euronext Paris

March 20, 2017
Ex-dividend date for the 3rd 2016 interim dividend

[waldron] 03/2/2017 11:10

Calendar


Financial events

February 09, 2017
2016 Results & Outlook Presentation (London, UK)

[waldron] 03/2/2017 11:09

Europe set to absorb more LNG in 2018

Published by Joseph Green, Editor
LNG Industry, Friday, 03 February 2017 09:44

Europe may absorb more LNG in 2018 because of growing global liquefaction capacity. But Russia's response to increasing LNG supply remains unclear.

Suppliers of pipeline gas to Europe may have to maintain lower prices to keep out uncommitted LNG cargoes, either through contract renegotiations or selling supply at European hub prices.

UK NBP gas prices would have to be at a premium to the US' Henry Hub of US$1.45/mn Btu or less to discourage additional US LNG imports.

However, the UK premium could be as low as around US$1/mn Btu to attract US LNG to Europe.

Russian state-controlled Gazprom expects little competition from US LNG, at least this year. But it would be in the company's interest to compete with this growing supply source, given its declining domestic gas sales.

[waldron] 01/2/2017 11:12

Financial events

February 09, 2017
2016 Results & Outlook Presentation (London, UK)
March 16, 2017
2016 Annual Reports
April 27, 2017
First Quarter 2017 Results
July 27, 2017
Second Quarter 2017 Results
September 25, 2017
Strategy & Outlook Presentation (London, UK)
October 27, 2017
Third Quarter 2017 Results

All Calendar
Close
Dividends for holders of Total shares traded on the Euronext Paris

March 20, 2017
Ex-dividend date for the 3rd 2016 interim dividend
June 05, 2017
Ex-dividend date for the remainder of the 2016 dividend
September 25, 2017
Ex-dividend date for the 1st 2017 interim dividend
December 19, 2017
Ex-dividend date for the 2nd 2017 interim dividend

[grupo] 30/1/2017 11:19

Published on 30/01/2017 at 11h09

(Boursier.com) - Total could meet the increase in sales of electric vehicles by equipping its service stations with recharging plugs. The French group "studies the viability" of such a device in some of its points of sale, he confirmed to the Financial Times, which made an article on the subject after Royal Dutch Shell indicated that some Stations of his network would skip the pace. The ENI transalpine already offers recharging sites. The director of Shell's downstream branch, John Abbott, believes that the transition to electric vehicles will take decades, leaving the industry giants time to prepare. But he already sees some advantages in proposing the recharging of batteries, in particular to exploit the coffee or cravings of the motorist during the waiting time.

The road is still long for the electric car. In its latest report, the International Energy Agency estimated that these cars accounted for only about 0.1% of the world's total fleet at the end of 2015 (ie 1 billion vehicles). The Agency estimates that 140 million electric vehicles will have been produced in 2030 (10% of the stock of special light vehicles) and 900 million in 2050 (40% of this fleet). This would mean annual growth of more than 25% by 2025, and then by 7-10% between 2030 and 2050.

[ariane] 27/1/2017 10:17

Big Oil May Not Need To Borrow To Pay Dividends For The First Time In 5 Years
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 26, 2017, 5:07 PM CST Offshore rig

The hefty cost cuts that the supermajors have made over the past two years, combined with relatively stable oil prices that are now over $50, could mean that Big Oil may not have to resort to borrowing in order to pay the sacred dividends for the first time in five years, Bloomberg reports, quoting analysts at brokerage Jefferies International.

The slashed costs – including sweeping job cuts – and the canceling and delaying of highly capital-intensive projects have helped the world’s five biggest oil companies to stop bleeding cash and return to generating cash flows.

“As a group they are at peak debt levels now,” Jason Gammel, a London-based analyst at Jefferies, told Bloomberg, referring to operating and capital efficiency at ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, Total SA, and BP.
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Since the oil prices started crashing in 2014, supermajors had amassed more and more debt. As of the middle of last year, Big Oil’s debts were rising, cash flows dropping, and capex diminishing, but dividends firmly held.

Now it looks like the tide is slowly turning, thanks to higher oil prices, leaner operations, and cost cuts.

Related: Robots Over Roughnecks: Next Drilling Boom Might Not Add Many Jobs

Jefferies has estimated that when oil prices were around US$100 per barrel in 2014, the Big Five had generated a combined US$180 billion in cash from operations. In 2016, the total cash from operations had plunged to US$83 billion. But higher oil prices are expected to help the now ‘leaner and meaner’ oil majors to generate US$142 billion from operations this year, and US$176 billion next year, according to Jefferies.

In the next two weeks, the Big Five will report fourth-quarter figures, and analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg point to Exxon, Chevron and BP booking their first annual profit rises since 2014. More specifically, Chevron is projected to return to profit; Exxon is expected to book a 5.8-percent increase in income; Shell is seen reporting increased profit for a second quarter in a row; BP is likely to post higher adjusted earnings for the first time in nine successive quarters; and Total is seen posting a 4.3-percent increase in adjusted net income.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[sarkasm] 26/1/2017 16:51

February 09, 2017
2016 Results & Outlook Presentation (London, UK)

[la forge] 22/1/2017 11:24

Oil majors put money on diverging strategies

Robin Mills

January 22, 2017 Updated: January 22, 2017 02:29 PM

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Oil

After cutting billions from their budgets and thousands from workforces over the past three years, big oil companies are back on the acquisition trail. Since September, nine large deals have added up to US$20 billion of spending. But these mark sharp divergences in strategies between the super-majors.

Whose view of the future prevails is vital for shareholders and management alike.

The largest deal was the most recent – last Tuesday, ExxonMobil agreed to pay the Bass family up to $6.6bn, mostly in its own shares, for acreage in west Texas’s Permian Basin. Smaller companies have also made a string of acquisitions here, the only shale region where production has kept rising through the price slump, with attention moving from the Midland sub-basin to the less-fancied Delaware farther west.

The US super-major is also still waiting on shareholder approval for its $2.5bn buyout of Interoil, which is developing gas in Papua New Guinea.

After putting the 2010 Macondo disaster largely behind it, BP has been refilling its growth portfolio. The British company paid $2.2bn in stock for a 10 per cent stake in Abu Dhabi’s onshore Adco concession, and acquired exciting deepwater African gasfields for $916 million for part of Kosmos Energy’s discoveries in Mauritania and Senegal, and $525m for 10 per cent of Eni’s giant Zohr find in Egypt. Shortly afterwards, Russia’s Rosneft paid a proportional amount for 30 per cent of Zohr.

Total has also been active, buying stakes from Tullow in Uganda and Petrobras in Brazil. This adds to its interesting moves over the past year, notably displacing Maersk Oil from Qatar’s largest producing oilfield, Al Shaheen, in June, and signing a preliminary deal for Phase 13 of Iran’s super-giant South Pars gasfield. But it also bought an early-stage US liquefied natural gas project in December, and should soon announce another deal in Texas.

Meanwhile, Norway’s Statoil paid heavily indebted Petrobras $2.5bn for Brazil’s Carcara field in December.

By contrast, Chevron and Shell have been quiet on the acquisition front. Chevron already has a large position in the Permian and has been concentrating on developing it. Shell’s $50bn buy of smaller UK rival BG, completed in February, is the only recent mega deal. It has since focused on divestments to pay down debt; as well as downstream assets, it is looking for buyers for its historic onshore fields in Gabon, and some of its Norwegian and Iraqi fields.

This acquisition boom has three significant features. Firstly, companies now have enough confidence in commodity prices to move on medium-sized purchases. Recent metrics imply assumed oil prices around $60 to $65 per barrel, a little above current futures levels. But there is still a desire to conserve cash, with BP and, unusually, ExxonMobil paying in their own shares.

Secondly, some companies are making bold moves, while others are still managing their balance sheets, or are confident enough in their organic growth portfolio.

Thirdly, the American super-majors, like their smaller compatriots, are focused on their backyard. They are betting that drilling shale reservoirs more efficiently can keep outrunning low oil prices. The Europeans, by contrast, are active across the globe, relying on traditional super-major strengths in deepwater, integrated gas developments, frontier areas, and close relations with Middle Eastern governments.

Both approaches have dangers. The European super-majors risk being stranded with high-cost, long lead-time assets in a world of permanently depressed oil prices. The Americans are exposed to intense competition from nimbler small players, and concentration on a single country and single resource type. Carried to extremes, their abilities and asset base outside America may be eroded completely.

After years in which they all did very similar things, the big oil companies now offer very different investment propositions. This year, if the price recovery continues, we can expect each one to double down on its own strategy, providing a real test of their management team’s vision.

Robin Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.

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