Total Share Discussion Threads

[sarkasm] 02/3/2018 11:08

Total Embraces Political Risk With $450 Million Bet on Libya
By Francois De Beaupuy
2 mars 2018 à 11:13 UTC+1

Libya has been mired in civil strife for more than six years
Total has moved faster back into Iran than other oil majors

Total SA, the French oil and gas company, isn’t averse to adding political risk to its portfolio.

It just bought Marathon Oil Corp.’s Libyan assets for $450 million in a move that will more than double its production in the North African nation where output is frequently disrupted by a civil war. Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne is betting the low-cost fields he just bought into will increase output by more than a third by the end of the decade.

He’s no stranger to bold moves. Last July, Total was the first Western major to sign a contract with Iran since U.S. and international sanctions were eased in January 2016. Yet, Pouyanne is still waiting to see what the U.S. will decide regarding Tehran before making his final decision to develop the first phase of giant South Pars 11 gas field in the Persian Gulf, which would require $1 billion of investment from Total.

To be sure, the CEO has recently rebalanced the group’s exposure toward resources in the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil’s deep offshore, with the planned $7.45 billion acquisition of A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S’s oil unit and a $1.95 billion deal with Petroleo Brasileiro SA. That’s in addition to the $1.5 billion acquisition Engie SA’s upstream LNG business, and expansions in petrochemicals projects from South Korea to Texas.

Those acquisitions will modify Total’s geographic exposure, although recent project startups in West Africa and at Russia’s Yamal gas project will also have an impact.

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[waldron] 02/3/2018 08:46

Marathon Oil Announces Libya Divestiture for $450 Million

Posted by: Globe Newswire 2nd March 2018

HOUSTON, March 02, 2018 — Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) announced today it has signed and closed on the sale of its subsidiary, Marathon Oil Libya Limited, which holds the Company’s 16.33 percent non-operated interest in the Waha concessions in Libya, to a subsidiary of Total S.A. (Elf Aquitaine SAS) for cash consideration of $ 450 million. The divestiture represents a complete country exit for Marathon Oil.

“Today’s announcement to divest Libya at an attractive valuation continues the simplification and concentration of our portfolio to the high margin, high return U.S. resource plays,” said Lee Tillman, Marathon Oil president and CEO. “Our relentless focus on portfolio management has driven seven country exits since 2013 and generated proceeds of over $ 4 billion just in the last 2 years. As a result, 95 percent of our 2018 development capital allocation and about 70 percent of the Company’s total production mix will be associated with the U.S. resource plays, naturally expanding our margins in 2018 and beyond.”

At year-end 2017, the Company carried 199 million barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves in Libya. The divestiture price equates to 9 times Marathon Oil’s estimate of its 2018 free cash flow from Libya at strip pricing. The divestiture closed on March 1, 2018 with an effective date of Jan. 1, 2018.

[waldron] 02/3/2018 07:50

Denmark’s energy regulator has given the nod for the sale of Maersk Oil to French energy giant Total to go ahead.

But the Danish Energy Agency has set out certain conditions for granting its approval.

Seller Moller-Maersk must retain “secondary liability” for the decommissioning of existing Danish offshore facilities in line with Maersk Oil’s 31.2 % interest in the Danish Underground Consortium.

The condition applies in the event that Total is unable to cover the decommissioning bill.
Related Articles

North Sea operators to deliver 2.8billion barrels extra, OGA says
Influx of newcomers a ‘terrific dynamic’ for North Sea, Petrofac says
Moller-Maersk to retain ‘secondary liability’ for decom costs in Total transaction

The £5.8billion transaction was first announced in August 2017 and is expected to go through during the current quarter.

The deal hands Total a 49.99% operated stake in one of the UK’s biggest offshore gas developments, the Culzean field, which is expected to come online in 2019.

[grupo] 26/2/2018 15:07

Total: What's In The Bridgewater Short?
Feb. 26, 2018 9:20 AM ET|
1 comment|
About: TOTAL S.A. (TOT), Includes: ADDYY, CVX, DB, FXE, MONRF, XOM
Kevin George
Kevin George
Long/short equity, currencies, commodities
(306 followers)
Summary

World's largest Hedge Fund adds Total to big short.

Cross-currency effects could be a reason.

What's the outlook for Total?

World's largest Hedge Fund adds Total to big short

Bridgewater Associates, the World's Largest Hedge Fund raised eyebrows recently as it disclosed an increase in its short European stock position to $22bn. The Connecticut-based fund, run by Chairman Ray Dalio, has $150bn of assets under management so the European bet was a sizeable chunk of its portfolio and included French oil major Total (NYSE:TOT).

Bridgewater is a Macro fund with a flagship "all weather fund" that seeks to generate positive alpha in all market conditions, so it is likely that the overall bet is built around a thesis of a slowdown in Eurozone growth and/or currency moves. Included in the short position were some obvious choices, with troubled German bank, Deutsche (NYSE:DB) and the Italian bank, Intesa. I wrote previously that I saw further downside in Europe with Greece and the Italian banking system being the immediate threats. Deutsche Bank has struggled in its attempts to create a sustainable recovery, with more job cuts on the way due to falling trading revenues and this was during the best days of the recovery from the previous crisis. The risks to the Eurozone are also compounded by the ongoing Brexit negotiations and the upcoming March 4th Italian elections, where once again, anti-EU, populist parties are threatening to rock the boat in Brussels.

The recent tax cuts in the U.S. may attract foreign capital to the U.S. stock and bond markets, and with the risks mentioned in the Eurozone, it may be that Bridgewater is hedging its overall stock exposure in the near-term and expecting a slowdown in the Eurozone economy, or at least that stocks there are a less attractive opportunity than in the U.S.
Cross-currency effects could be a reason

Among the companies included in the Hedge Fund short position were Adidas (OTCQX:OTCQX:ADDYY) and Moncler (OTCPK:OTCPK:MONRF). Both of these companies rely heavily on overseas earnings, so it's likely that global growth and Euro risks are a driver of the investment idea.

If Bridgewater were expecting the Euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) to advance further then it could buy European stocks and benefit from the currency move even if the stock prices remained stagnant. It's therefore clear that Dollar strength is expected and this would also put a squeeze on companies such as those mentioned above as they repatriate earnings or transfer Euros for investment or costs. Total for example, receives oil earnings in dollars but has Euro-based costs for its operations there. More importantly, Total pays its dividend in Euros so a strengthening of the U.S. Dollar would erode some of the dividend's value for overseas investors.
What's the outlook for Total?

To match the top-down approach of a Bridgewater-style, macro investment, we can then look more closely at the industry-specific outlook for Total.

The oil price volatility in recent years has seen Total's stock price on the Paris exchange trade at a high of 54 euros in 2014, before dropping around 50% to lows of 36 euros in 2016. The stock now trades at 47 euros. Much of the support for Total's stock would come from the steady dividend, where the company offers a yield of 5.7% and hasn't cut dividends since 1982.

(Source: Total SA)

Another driver of strength in the stock has been share buybacks and the company has committed to up to $5bn of further share purchases in 2018-2020. In alignment with the industry Total have managed to lower production costs from $9.9 boe in 2014, to $5.4 in 2017 and has a return on equity above 10%, which is the highest amongst the major oil firms. Downstream operations have created an ROCE over 30%, further supporting the business.

Production highlights have been the launch of five upstream projects in Brazil, the U.S., and South Korea. An acquisition of Maersk Oil in 2017 has also strengthened Total's position in the UK's North Sea. The Maersk Oil purchase was largely covered by a $10bn asset sale program and will benefit from the return of a stronger Brent Crude price.

(Source: Total SA).

In order to capitalize on the fast-growing LNG market, the company also acquired the assets of Engie, which saw Total build a commanding share of the LNG market alongside the other majors.

(Source: Total SA)

There's nothing in the financial performance and strategy that highlights any areas or particular risk in comparison to Total's peers, however another angle that could be the reason for the Bridgewater short position could be taxes. With the recent passing of the Republican tax cuts in the United States, U.S. oil majors such as Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) will have a key advantage over their European counterparts, which could help to close any gaps in financial ratios. Exxon's most recent earnings saw a tax cut windfall and the company has committed to billions in new domestic investment in the years ahead. The billions of extra dollars available could see company's such as Total priced out of acquisitions or production leases and the U.S. firms will be better able to weather any downturn in the oil price. Total's 2017 tax rates are highlighted below:

(Source: Total SA)

The U.S. corporate tax rate has been lowered from 35% to 21% and this allowed Exxon for example, to write down future liabilities and see a $5bn gain in the recent quarter. Over continuous quarters these gains will build up and companies such as Total may find it hard to compete.
Conclusion

The overall performance of Total since the oil crash of 2014 has been impressive and the company has moved to make key strategic acquisitions in the North Sea and LNG market, whilst maintaining its reliable dividend strategy and outperforming its peers in financial ratios. There are no immediate risks that would call for a short position on the microeconomic front, so the Bridgewater short position is clearly based around macroeconomics. Risks still weigh on the Eurozone from the upcoming Italian elections and Brexit, so the Euro would be a concern for multi-national European firms and the Eurozone may be less able to stomach weakness in the global economy. The other key issue is the recent U.S. tax cuts, which have brought a windfall for U.S. oil companies and will give them strong advantages that could quickly close the gap on any lagging financial ratios. Although the Hedge Fund's position may simply be an industry hedge against falling oil or economic growth, it is likely that Total's stock price could start to lag the performance of its U.S. peers.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

[grupo] 26/2/2018 08:25

TOTAL: Low risk in the medium term
TEC the 26/02/2018 at 08:33
0
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TOTAL: Low risk in the medium term

SYNTHESIS

The MACD is negative, but it is above its signal line: the trend is changing. Now, the MACD must cross zero so that the rise will continue in the days to come. The RSI is above 50, this confirms a good orientation of the title. But the stochastic indicators are high, which should encourage caution in the very short term. The traded volumes are below average volumes over the last 10 days.

MOVEMENTS AND LEVELS

The title is in the technical recovery phase. It is above its 50-day moving average. Support is at 44.02 EUR, then 43.09 EUR; the resistance is at 49.6 EUR, then at 50.54 EUR.
Last class: 47.07
Support: 44.02 / 43.09
Resistance: 49.6 / 50.54
Short term opinion: neutral
Medium term opinion: neutral

[sarkasm] 25/2/2018 21:14

Total confident about UK's Forties crude oil pipeline, North Sea future: upstream chief

London (Platts)--22 Feb 2018 1117 am EST/1617 GMT

Total's exploration and production president, Arnaud Breuillac, voiced confidence this week in the Forties crude pipeline and its operator Ineos after a crack was discovered in the line in December, and said Total is committed to expanding its North Sea and UK business.


Pipeline condition properly inspected
Says Brexit has "no impact"
Maersk deal to double North Sea resources


In an interview, Breuillac described the recent handover of infrastructure from major companies to smaller, more dedicated players such as Ineos and EnQuest, which has taken over as operator of the Sullom Voe terminal from BP, as a step in the "right direction."

Related article -- Interview: Total to keep probing risky oil and gas frontiers: upstream chief

Total is a leading North Sea oil and natural gas producer, due to its legacy oil assets such as Elgin-Franklin, and the Laggan-Tormore gas project, which it inaugurated in 2016.

Its UK oil and gas output totaled 142,000 b/d of oil equivalent last year, down from 158,000 boe/d in 2016, but it expects to increase that with its acquisition of Denmark's Maersk Oil.

Breuillac likened the Forties pipeline to refineries that operate at over 100 years' of age, saying a pipeline might carry on for many years if properly maintained and if it transported enough oil to earn its keep.

"Large companies like BP are not necessarily the best to optimize this type of infrastructure," he said. "We have known Ineos for quite some time so we have no fear that they could not manage the Forties assets properly."

Article continues below...

Download our special report:
Riding the wave: The Dated Brent benchmark at 30 years old and beyond

As crude production in the North Sea continues to evolve, its role in an increasingly globalized market has started to shift, having an impact on Dated Brent and its position as a global oil benchmark. In this report, S&P Global Platts delves into the dynamics affecting the North Sea and Northwest Europe crude markets and the continuing evolution of Dated Brent.

Download now


Referring to the crack in the Forties pipeline in December, which disrupted exports for around three weeks, Breuillac said Ineos had carried out a full inspection of the pipeline to verify its integrity.

"The condition of the pipeline is now well known and we have confidence in the reliability of the pipeline. Ineos is clearly a very capable company," Breuillac said.

'STIMULATING ENVIRONMENT'

He said Total stands to double its resource base in the North Sea with the acquisition of Maersk Oil, which is due to be completed in the current quarter, and highlighted plans to open an offshore operations center in Copenhagen.

The acquisition of the Culzean gas and condensate project as part of the deal fits with Total's nearby Elgin-Franklin field, creating potential synergies that should extend the life of existing assets, he said. Culzean is due on stream next year.

Total also gains an 8.44% stake in the giant Johan Sverdrup project off the coast of Norway, which is due on stream in 2019.

Breuillac noted the company had sold its stake in Martin Linge, the only field it operated in Norway, to Statoil last year, reflecting its modest size and the costs involved.

Breuillac echoed chief executive Patrick Pouyanne's recent description of the North Sea as the company's "garden."

He said the UK's Brexit vote in 2016 had "no impact."

"The North Sea has always been a very stimulating environment for Total. A lot of the capabilities that we have built in the company came from our experience in the North Sea and we see this still as a very valuable reason to be very active in the region and particularly the UK," Breuillac said. "We are already the No. 1 operator in the UK so we are consolidating this position."

--Nick Coleman, [e-mail]
--Edited by Keiron Greenhalgh, [e-mail]

[the grumpy old men] 25/2/2018 09:56

19/03 Détachement de dividende (optionnel)

[grupo] 22/2/2018 16:34

Print

Total confident about UK's Forties crude oil pipeline, North Sea future: upstream chief

London (Platts)--22 Feb 2018 1117 am EST/1617 GMT

Total's exploration and production president, Arnaud Breuillac, voiced confidence this week in the Forties crude pipeline and its operator Ineos after a crack was discovered in the line in December, and said Total is committed to expanding its North Sea and UK business.


Pipeline condition properly inspected
Says Brexit has "no impact"
Maersk deal to double North Sea resources


In an interview, Breuillac described the recent handover of infrastructure from major companies to smaller, more dedicated players such as Ineos and EnQuest, which has taken over as operator of the Sullom Voe terminal from BP, as a step in the "right direction."

Related article -- Interview: Total to keep probing risky oil and gas frontiers: upstream chief

Total is a leading North Sea oil and natural gas producer, due to its legacy oil assets such as Elgin-Franklin, and the Laggan-Tormore gas project, which it inaugurated in 2016.

Its UK oil and gas output totaled 142,000 b/d of oil equivalent last year, down from 158,000 boe/d in 2016, but it expects to increase that with its acquisition of Denmark's Maersk Oil.

Breuillac likened the Forties pipeline to refineries that operate at over 100 years' of age, saying a pipeline might carry on for many years if properly maintained and if it transported enough oil to earn its keep.

"Large companies like BP are not necessarily the best to optimize this type of infrastructure," he said. "We have known Ineos for quite some time so we have no fear that they could not manage the Forties assets properly."

Article continues below...

Download our special report:
Riding the wave: The Dated Brent benchmark at 30 years old and beyond

As crude production in the North Sea continues to evolve, its role in an increasingly globalized market has started to shift, having an impact on Dated Brent and its position as a global oil benchmark. In this report, S&P Global Platts delves into the dynamics affecting the North Sea and Northwest Europe crude markets and the continuing evolution of Dated Brent.

Download now


Referring to the crack in the Forties pipeline in December, which disrupted exports for around three weeks, Breuillac said Ineos had carried out a full inspection of the pipeline to verify its integrity.

"The condition of the pipeline is now well known and we have confidence in the reliability of the pipeline. Ineos is clearly a very capable company," Breuillac said.

'STIMULATING ENVIRONMENT'

He said Total stands to double its resource base in the North Sea with the acquisition of Maersk Oil, which is due to be completed in the current quarter, and highlighted plans to open an offshore operations center in Copenhagen.

The acquisition of the Culzean gas and condensate project as part of the deal fits with Total's nearby Elgin-Franklin field, creating potential synergies that should extend the life of existing assets, he said. Culzean is due on stream next year.

Total also gains an 8.44% stake in the giant Johan Sverdrup project off the coast of Norway, which is due on stream in 2019.

Breuillac noted the company had sold its stake in Martin Linge, the only field it operated in Norway, to Statoil last year, reflecting its modest size and the costs involved.

Breuillac echoed chief executive Patrick Pouyanne's recent description of the North Sea as the company's "garden."

He said the UK's Brexit vote in 2016 had "no impact."

"The North Sea has always been a very stimulating environment for Total. A lot of the capabilities that we have built in the company came from our experience in the North Sea and we see this still as a very valuable reason to be very active in the region and particularly the UK," Breuillac said. "We are already the No. 1 operator in the UK so we are consolidating this position."

--Nick Coleman, [e-mail]
--Edited by Keiron Greenhalgh, [e-mail]

[waldron] 21/2/2018 08:55

Eco (Atlantic) passes on first seismic data from Orinduik to Total
08:16 21 Feb 2018
French giant Total has an option to take a 25% working interest in Orinduik from Eco. Block might contain more than 1bn barrels.
Jack-up rig
Orinduik is in shallow water offshore Guyana

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. (LON:ECO CVE:EOG) has forwarded on the first batch of seismic data shot by Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) over the Orinduik field.

French giant Total has an option to take a 25% working interest in Orinduik from Eco for a payment of US$12.5mln.

At present, Eco has a 40% stake in the field, in the shallow waters offshore Guyana, while Tullow has 60%.

Eco added it will receive the next phase of 3D inversion data from Tullow shortly and after it passes that on Total will have 120 days to decide whether to take up its option.

Colin Kinley, Eco’s director and chief operating officer, said: "This is an exciting time for Eco, and we are being careful to ensure a comprehensive and conservative interpretation of the Orinduik data as it is being delivered.

“We have a great deal of faith in the quality of seismic data processing by PGS, whom we have used many times in the past.

“Tullow also has a team of leading industry experts who understand the play and are providing an excellent paced and thorough oversite of the data.

“We are sharing the data with Total now, who have worked on projects with Tullow in the past.”

Orinduik is next to Exxon’s Staebrook field, where first oil from the Liza is expected by March 2020 and production forecast to increase to in excess of 340,000 bbls/day by 2022.

Eco and Tullow have identified leads on the Orinduik block that they estimate could contain in excess of 1 billion barrels updip of the Liza discoveries, several of which are age equivalent to the Liza reservoir.

In addition, Eco has appointed Gustavson Associates of Colorado to provide independent interpretation services and a CPR under AIM rules and an NI-51-101 report under TSX Guidelines.

“Gustavson have extensive expertise and knowledge of the region and will provide a CPR and NI-51-101 on the block as the interpretation matures.

“Drilling is expected to commence in late 2018 or early 2019 and the potential scale of this resource requires a detailed strategy and confident interpretation."

[sarkasm] 19/2/2018 15:42

Total S.A. U.S.: Total, Borealis and NOVA Chemicals Sign Definitive Agreements to Form a Joint Venture in Petrochemicals
19/02/2018 3:38pm
UK Regulatory (RNS & others)


TIDMTTA



Total S.A. ("Total") (Paris:FP) (LSE:TTA) (NYSE:TOT), Borealis AG ("Borealis") and NOVA Chemicals Corporation ("NOVA Chemicals") today announced that affiliates of the three companies have signed definitive agreements to form a joint venture in petrochemicals on the U.S. Gulf Coast.



The joint venture - in which Total will own 50% and Novealis Holdings LLC, a joint venture between Borealis and NOVA Chemicals, will own the remaining 50% - will commence subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of regulatory approvals.



The joint venture will include:



-- the under-construction 1 Mt/y (2.2 b lb) ethane steam cracker in Port

Arthur, Texas


-- Total's existing polyethylene 400 kt/y (880 m lb) facility in Bayport,

Texas


-- a new 625 kt/y (1.35 b lb) Borstar

® polyethylene unit at

Total's Bayport, Texas, site, following a decision on the outcome of

an acceptable EPC contract



As announced in March 2017, the new $1.7 billion ethane steam cracker is being built alongside Total's Port Arthur refinery and Total/BASF existing steam cracker. The project, which is scheduled to start up in 2020, will create around 1,500 jobs during peak engineering and construction activity.



"This agreement is a key milestone for this integrated petrochemicals project. This joint venture is aligned with Total's strategy to strengthen our position by taking advantage of low-cost U.S. gas," said Bernard Pinatel, President, Refining & Chemicals, Total. "We look forward to working with Borealis and NOVA Chemicals to create world-class facilities and become a major player in the growing U.S. and global market for polyethylene."



"The JV with Total and NOVA Chemicals is a key project in advancing our global growth. Not only are we convinced of the excellent cost-economics of this integrated brownfield investment project, but we are also excited to bring our unique product grades based on our Borstar technology to the North American market," said Borealis CEO Mark Garrett.



"A key component of NOVA Chemicals' growth strategy is to expand beyond our traditionally Canadian footprint by extending our presence in the U.S. Gulf Coast," stated NOVA Chemicals CEO, Todd Karran. "Partnering with Total and Borealis will allow us to better serve our customers throughout the Americas by delivering a broader slate of products that help make everyday life healthier, easier and safer."



* * * * *



About Total



Total is a global integrated energy producer and provider, a leading international oil and gas company, a major player in low-carbon energies. Our 98,000 employees are committed to better energy that is safer, cleaner, more efficient, more innovative and accessible to as many people as possible. As a responsible corporate citizen, we focus on ensuring that our operations in more than 130 countries worldwide consistently deliver economic, social and environmental benefits. www.total.com



About NOVA Chemicals



NOVA Chemicals develops and manufactures chemicals and plastic resins that make everyday life safer, healthier and easier. Our employees work to ensure health, safety, security and environmental stewardship through our commitment to sustainability and Responsible Care®. NOVA Chemicals, headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, is wholly-owned, ultimately by Mubadala Investment Company of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.



About Borealis



Borealis is a leading provider of innovative solutions in the fields of polyolefins, base chemicals and fertilizers. With its head office in Vienna, Austria, the company currently has around 6,600 employees and operates in over 120 countries. Borealis generated EUR 7.5 billion in sales revenue and a net profit of EUR 1,095 million in 2017. Mubadala, through its holding company, owns 64% of the company, with the remaining 36% belonging to Austria-based OMV, an integrated, international oil and gas company. Borealis provides services and products to customers around the world in collaboration with Borouge, a joint venture with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). www.borealisgroup.com



* * * * *



Total Media Relations: [phone] [e-mail] @TotalPress or Investor Relations: [phone] [e-mail] or Borealis Patrick Laureys, [phone] (Vienna, Austria) Senior External Communications Manager [e-mail] or NOVA Chemicals Media Relations: Mark Horner, Director Corporate Communications [e-mail] or Investors Relations: Patty Masry, Leader External Financial Reporting [e-mail]



NOVA Chemicals' logo is a registered trademark of NOVA Brands Ltd.; authorized use.Responsible Care®is a registered trademark of the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada.Borstar is a registered trademark of the Borealis Group.

[la forge] 16/2/2018 13:51

upstream going downstream and beyond

[grupo] 16/2/2018 12:30

BP and Total agree to accept each other’s fuel cards across Europe
John Wood · 16 February, 2018
BP company owned site

BP and Total have agreed a deal to accept each other’s fuel cards across Europe.

The agreement will see Total accept use of the BP/Aral fuel card at its network of stations in France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland and Germany. In return, BP/Aral will accept Total’s fuel card at stations in Germany, the UK, Austria, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Poland.

This means that both BP/Aral card and Total card will be accepted at an additional 4,000 stations.

“The extension of our acceptance network means that BP/Aral customers now have access to over 22,000 sites in 29 countries, in addition to data and technical support to manage their fleets,” said Guy Moeyens, BP chief operating officer fuels, Europe and southern Africa.

Benoît Luc, Total M&S senior vice president for Europe, added: “With this extension of our acceptance network we will be able to satisfy our professional customer needs and perfectly complement our card offer in Europe. It will also contribute to one of the key objective of Total Group: accompany our customers in their energy choices and be the partner of their mobility.”

[la forge] 13/2/2018 15:20

Alexander Bueso
WebFG News
13 Feb, 2018 15:01 13 Feb, 2018 15:02
Morgan Stanley downgrades BP, cuts target for Shell
bp
BP
476.35
14:58:59 13/02/18
-0.48%
-2.30
Total
45.45
14:58:59 13/02/18
0.44%
0.20
Royal Dutch Shell 'A'
2,295.00
14:58:55 13/02/18
0.44%
10.00
Royal Dutch Shell 'B'
2,315.00
14:59:00 13/02/18
0.43%
10.00
Statoil
173.75
14:58:00 13/02/18
-0.23%
-0.40
FTSE 100
7,174.90
14:58:59 13/02/18
-0.03%
-2.16
CAC 40
5,117.68
14:59:00 13/02/18
-0.42%
-21.50
DJ EURO STOXX 50
3,346.60
14:59:00 13/02/18
-0.63%
-21.13
FTSE 350
3,991.69
14:58:59 13/02/18
-0.06%
-2.27
FTSE All-Share
3,944.26
14:58:59 13/02/18
-0.05%
-2.16

Morgan Stanley downgraded its view on shares of BP by one notch from 'overweight' to 'equalweight', predicting that management would continue to prioritise debt reduction over the dividend payout.

Elsewhere in the sector on the other hand, Total and Statoil had rocked the proverbial boat with their recently announced dividend hikes.

Indeed, it was chiefly due to the above that the broker downgraded BP, as it was limited to two 'overweights' in the sector.

Thus, while the broker's recommendation on Royal Dutch Shell stayed at 'overweight', that on Total was increased from 'equalweight' to 'overweight'.

The decisions from Total and Statoil marked an 'inflection point' for the sector, Morgan Stanley said, adding that it was "reflective of the improvement that insiders were seeing".

Yet while Total's dividend cover-by-free cash flow was seen reaching a "particularly strong" 155% by 2019, in BP's case that ratio was only expected to improve to around 95% in 2018 and then 110% in 2019.

Combined with a less robust balance sheet, that would see management prioritise debt reduction, Morgan Stanley said.

Even so, as confidence grew in its payout, Morgan Stanley expected the shares' dividend yield to fall.

Worth noting, the broker also revised its target prices for all three stocks lower, with BP's falling from 645p to 550p, Total's from €56.0 to €55.6 and Shell's from 3,040p to 2,830p.

The target price cut on Shell was despite the broker's forecasts calling for it to be the next to raise its dividend, with its free cash flow reaching $21bn in 2018 on an oil price of $64 a barrel, rising to $24bn in 2020 at $60 oil, resulting in FCF dividend covers of about 135% and 155% in each of those years.

"If history is any guide, BP's financial outlook is strong enough so that investors do not demand a yield much bigger than ~5.2% [from 6.2% at present], which is our target yield by end-2018. This still suggests a return prospect of ~23% – healthy but less strong that its two direct peers (Total and Shell)."

[grupo] 13/2/2018 14:13

Big Oil sector is rapidly improving, but Shell is preferred over BP - analyst
11:03 13 Feb 2018
As European rivals increase dividend pay-outs, Morgan Stanley is upbeat about Shell but is less so about BP which he has downgraded
BP petrol station
BP is now rated as ‘equal weight’

Never mind the share price performances, the ‘Big Oil’ sector is rapidly seeing better cash generation and reducing debt burdens, says Morgan Stanley analyst, Martijn Rats.

In a note, he highlights that dividend increases in the sector - from Total and Statoil – represents an unexpected but important ‘inflection point’, reflecting the kind of progress seen by industry insiders.
READ: BP has shown best improvement among oil majors - analyst

“Every previous cycle has shown that, in the end, commodity prices and the industry's cost structure find a new equilibrium such that new projects can go ahead again and the majors can maintain their dividends,” the analyst said.

Nonetheless, Rats fancies rivals like Royal Dutch Shell PLC (LON:RDSB) and Total ahead of BP PLC (LON:BP) as the analyst has downgraded the London-listed oil major to ‘equal weight’ from ‘overweight217;.

“We do not expect that BP will keep up with Total and, ultimately, Shell on dividend growth. It drops in our relative preference mostly because Total rises,” he added.
READ: Shell boss Van Beurden boasts of “strong financial performance”

Shell is already rated as ‘overweight217; by Morgan Stanley and it could be the next oil major to increase its dividend, according to Rats, who thinks the bigger pay-out could come “this time next year”.

“Shell benefits from similar industrial fundamentals as Total: a cost base that is reset sharply lower, a healthy pipeline of projects that add cash flow, a strong Downstream segment and a growing Chemicals business,” the analyst said.

“On top, we would argue that Shell stands out with a particularly thoughtful approach to the Energy Transition.”

Statoil is upgraded to ‘equal weight’ following its dividend hike, as Morgan Stanley sees “impressive growth” and as a result the no longer warrants the previous ‘underweight’ rating.

[grupo] 13/2/2018 11:10

Interview: Total eyes greater role in gas-fired power, renewables in Europe

London (Platts)--13 Feb 2018 552 am EST/1052 GMT

French major Total is considering increasing its gas-fired power generation capacity and renewables presence in Europe, the head of its gas, renewables and power division said, as the company pushes forward with a strategy to improve its green credentials.

* French major wants presence along gas value chain: Sauquet

* Keeping close watch on German, French policy decisions

* Carbon price of Eur20/mt sufficient to eliminate coal

At the center of the initiative is Total's increasing focus on gas -- and LNG in particular -- following the agreed acquisition of Engie's LNG business in late 2017.

But a gas presence all along the value chain -- from production to power generation -- is key to Total, as is the further development of its renewables business, Philippe Sauquet told S&P Global Platts in an exclusive interview in London.

"What is important for us is to be present all along the gas chain, all the way down to the electricity end-user," Sauquet said.

Total already has a number of power generation assets, including co-generation plants in France and Belgium close to its refining operations, but the company sees a bright future for gas and renewables to work in tandem across Europe.

It created its new Gas, Renewables and Power (GRP) division in 2016, with the goal of preparing the long-term future of the group in the field of low carbon.

"Our aim is to bring low-carbon energy to our customers, with gas on one side and renewables on the other. We see a nice fit between gas and renewables," he said.

Total has made a number of acquisitions in the recent past in a bid to grow its low-carbon business.

These include the takeover of Belgian gas and green power supplier Lampiris in 2016, the acquisition the same year of France-based battery manufacturer Saft, and the purchase of a 23% stake in wind, solar and hydro power generator EREN in October last year.

It is also pushing on organically, and has developed several solar farms in France, including a 7 MW facility next to its refurbished bio-refinery at La Mede.

POLICY UNCERTAINTY

Sauquet said Total was keeping close watch on the political developments in France and Germany, which in the near future could give more clarity on the future of the countries' energy mixes.

A concrete shift away from coal-fired power generation in Germany would give gas a major boost, he said.

"When the Germans finally take the decision to shut down coal-fired power plants, gas would be all the more one of the most economical solutions to bring flexible power to all these interconnected markets -- France, Belgium, Germany etc," Sauquet said.

In France, he said Total was encouraged by the recent policy moves to phase out coal early next decade.

"We still have to see if the target date will be met. But the intent is good and if the shutdown takes place in 2021/22 as announced there will be a need for more gas-fired power generation," he said.

But, the evolution of the French power market is uncertain and depends largely on the fate of the EDF-operated nuclear fleet and how electricity demand develops in the coming years.

"If there is flat power demand and the nuclear fleet is performing well, you may potentially have a case where you don't need more gas-fired power generation," he said.

"But if you have technical risk and any decision to generate less from nuclear, or even shut down part of the nuclear fleet, together with more demand for electricity for cars and other uses, then we can't be sure that renewables will be enough to compensate for this extra demand," he said.

"We think there is a good case for stronger demand for gas-fired power generation in Europe."

Total also continues to advocate for a Europe-wide price on CO2 emissions to help push coal out of the energy mix.

"The ETS in Europe has not been well managed, and we have a very low carbon price which is not bringing a real reduction of CO2 emissions," he said.

"A carbon price level of Eur20/mt should be sufficient to see a shift in generation and a phasing out of coal-fired power."

OWN PRODUCTION

Asked if Total would be open to operating more gas-fired power plants, Sauquet said: "Yes -- definitely. We are willing to be more present in gas-fired power generation than we are today."

He pointed to the situation in Germany where some new CCGTs have been idled because they are more expensive to operate than existing coal-fired plant.

"We are seeing some brand new CCGTs stopped in Germany while they continue to produce from coal. So there could be opportunities for companies like Total that believe strongly in the future of gas to step up and buy some assets rather than seeing them shut down," Sauquet said.

As for building new CCGT, the company has not set any strategic targets.

"Today there is not really a compelling case to build new gas-fired power generation while we don't have a clear vision on German and French policy," he said.

"When it is clearer we could decide to build new capacity."

Total is already becoming a more significant power supplier in France, and launched last year "Total Spring" to supply gas and renewable power to end-users at a 10% discount to regulated tariffs.

"This is part of our long-term vision to continue to grow our market share in France," Sauquet said.

He added that Total did not necessarily need generation assets to grow its supply business given the liquidity on the wholesale power market.

"We don't really need to have our own power plants because there is a wholesale market for electricity and you can source power competitively from the market. Power plants are optional, but they are a valuable and useful option and we intend to increase our power generating assets.

"We are generating value from this presence all along the chain, and we have option to arbitrage the quantities we buy on the market and the quantities we produce ourselves.

"We already produce power, and intend to produce more in the future, especially by adding renewables -- solar farms as a priority and maybe wind farms," he said.

--Stuart Elliott, [e-mail]

--Edited by Jeremy Lovell, [e-mail]