Total Share Discussion Threads

[la forge] 30/8/2017 08:59

Total (Paris:FP) (LSE:TTA) (NYSE:TOT) has started-up production from the Edradour & Glenlivet gas and condensate fields, located in about 300 to 435 metres of water in the West of Shetland area, close to the Laggan-Tormore fields which came on stream in February 2016. The Edradour and Glenlivet development will bring additional production capacity of up to 56,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/d).



"The start-up of the Edradour & Glenlivet fields demonstrates Total's ability to deliver projects, taking advantage of favourable market conditions and simplifying designs to optimise execution. We have completed this project ahead of schedule and 30% under the initialbudget", said Arnaud Breuillac, President Exploration & Production. "This development will contribute to our production growth in the North Sea."



The Edradour and Glenlivet development consists of a 35 kilometre tie-back of three subsea wells to the existing Laggan-Tormore production system, which include the 143 kilometre pipeline and the onshore Shetland Gas Plant. Following treatment at the gas plant, the gas is exported to the UK mainland via the Shetland Island Regional Gas Export System (SIRGE) and FUKA pipeline, and will serve the UK domestic market. The condensates are exported via the Sullom Voe Terminal.



Total E&P UK operates Edradour & Glenlivet with a 60% interest alongside partners DONG E&P (UK) Limited (20%) and SSE E&P UK Limited (20%).



Total Exploration & Production in the United Kingdom



Total has been present in the United Kingdom for more than 50 years and is one of the country's leading oil and gas operators, with equity production of 158,000 boe/d in 2016. Total's production in the United Kingdom comes from several operated fields located offshore in three major zones: the Alwyn/Dunbar area in the Northern North Sea, the Elgin/Franklin area in the Central North Sea and the new Laggan-Tormore hub in the West of Shetland area.



* * * *



About Total



Total is a global integrated energy producer and provider, a leading international oil and gas company, and a major player in solar energy with SunPower and Total Solar. Our 98,000 employees are committed to better energy that is safer, cleaner, more efficient, more innovative and accessible to as many people as possible. As a responsible corporate citizen, we focus on ensuring that our operations in more than 130 countries worldwide consistently deliver economic, social and environmental benefits. total.com



About DONG Energy



DONG Energy is one of the leading energy groups in Northern Europe, headquartered in Denmark. Around 6,700 ambitious employees are engaged in producing energy from offshore wind farms, bioenergy and thermal heat and power plants, oil and gas fields as well as providing energy solutions to residential and business customers. dongenergy.com



About SSE



SSE is an LSE listed company with total market capitalization of around GBP15 billion which is involved in producing, distributing and supplying electricity and gas and providing other energy-related services across the UK and Ireland. SSE has an active strategy of operating and investing in a balanced range of energy businesses across the UK and Ireland, and already owns gas production assets in that region. sse.com



Cautionary note



This press release, from which no legal consequences may be drawn, is for information purposes only. The entities in which TOTAL S.A. directly or indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. TOTAL S.A. has no liability for their acts or omissions. In this document, the terms "Total" and "Total Group" are sometimes used for convenience where general references are made to TOTAL S.A. and/or its subsidiaries. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" may also be used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them.



This document may contain forward-looking information and statements that are based on a number of economic data and assumptions made in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future and are subject to a number of risk factors. Neither TOTAL S.A. nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.



TOTALMike SANGSTER



Nicolas FUMEXKim HOUSEGORomain RICHEMONT



Tel. : + 44 (0)207 719 7962Fax : + 44 (0)207 716 3809



Robert HAMMOND (U.S.)Tel. : [phone]Fax : [phone]



total.com

[ariane] 27/8/2017 09:22

ALERT: Next oil price spike may cripple the industry

August 27, 2017 10:55 am


Two diametrically opposed views dominate the current debate about where the oil price is heading. On the one hand, there is the view that the price of oil will be “lower for longer”, or even “lower forever”, as the electrification of transport will eat away at oil demand more and more. Meanwhile, at the same time, technological innovation (shale in particular) will greatly increase economically recoverable resources.

On the other hand, however, there is the view that the price of oil is set to explode, primarily due to underinvestment in the upkeep of brownfields, development of greenfields and exploration for new resources.

Our view is that, most likely, both will happen. How it is possible for the price of oil to go both up and not up, and what would that mean for the oil industry? We will explain.
Why the price of oil actually isn’t that low

Contrary to general perception, the current price of oil is not very low. In fact, at a little more than $50 per barrel, oil is trading slightly higher than its historic, inflation adjusted average of $47 per barrel, which in and of itself calls into the question the “spike” view: If the period 2001 – 2014 was a clear historic abnormality, why should one expect the price to return those levels?

Furthermore, we agree with the people in the lower for longer / forever camp that electric vehicles (EVs) will eventually offer better overall value to consumers than internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) can and that this will have a big impact on oil demand. However, two important things need to be considered in this regard.

The first is that at present EVs do not yet outperform ICEVs comprehensively. While they offer a smoother ride, more passenger and storage space per square foot, and less noise and environmental pollution at a lower “cost of operation” (fuel and maintenance), in terms of “cost of ownership” EVs can’t yet compete with ICEVs.

Excluding subsidies, the difference is said to be approximately $16,000 in the US, $18,500 in Germany and $13,200 in France, despite Tesla and GM reportedly selling their main EV models at a loss.

The second is that, under the best of circumstances, it will take the EV industry roughly another decade to close this cost of ownership gap.

Based on this, our assessment is that the electrification of transport will only slow down oil demand growth during the 2020s. It is after that, during the 2030s and 2040s, that the oil industry should expect to experience the really painful impacts.
Why the price of oil could spike before that

That leaves the period until the end of the 2020s, during which we believe overall oil demand will continue to grow (albeit slower than before).

Supply forecasts developed on this basis hold that more than 20 million barrels per day of new production will need to be brought on stream until 2026 for natural production declines and demand growth to be properly addressed.

According to consultancy firm WoodMackenzie, only half that quantity can be delivered by projects that are currently underway.

The other half will need to come from still-to-be-launched projects (Pre-FID). But, WoodMackenzie says, many of these still-to-be-launched projects are uneconomical at oil prices in the $50s per barrel, meaning that they should not be expected to get the all-clear anytime soon.

Since (non-US shale) oilfield development projects can easily require five to eight years to be completed, all this means that the seeds for a supply crunch in the period 2020 – 2022 are currently being sowed.

Of course, a number of things could happen that would prevent such an oil supply crunch and, thus, an oil price spike. For example, oil demand growth could turn out to be less than expected at present, as energy demand growth already disappointed in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and could well disappoint again in 2017.

On the supply side, BP and Statoil have also proven that project re-engineering can slash substantial amounts of off-greenfield development costs, as a consequence of which, more projects could end up receiving the go-ahead than presently is held possible.

But again, other “risks”, such as the US shale “growth over profits” mindset coming to an end, support the oil price spike theory, which leads us to conclude that, in all, a tightening of the global oil market is indeed the most realistic expectation for the near future.
Why an oil price spike would be bad for the industry

If indeed the price of oil were to break through $60 per barrel again during 2018 and spike in the years thereafter ($80 per barrel? $100 perhaps?), the “cost of operation” benefit of EVs would be strengthened further, closing (at least part of) the ICEV advantage in “cost of ownership”.

In other words, an oil price spike would speed up the electrification of transportation, in particular in the Passenger Vehicle segment, as a consequence of which, oil demand would peak earlier – not towards the end of the 2020s, but perhaps during the middle of the 2020s already.

Those with an interest in a long term future for the oil industry, such as the nations that own most of the oil still in the ground, therefore have an interest in preventing the oil price from going up too much. (Which, in a way, is ironic, since many of them are the ones working the hardest to push up the price.)

This is because a future oil price spike would not indicate a sign of recovery of the oil industry. It would be more of a “last gasp” by the industry, establishing not much more than a last opportunity for those who do not own the lowest cost resources to offload their oil-related assets for a favourable price.

(By Andreas de Vries and Dr. Salman Ghouri for Oilprice.com)

[grupo guitarlumber] 25/8/2017 09:31

Maersk oil deal ‘difficultR17; for founding family
Article | 25 August, 2017 09:00 AM | By Alexandra Newlove
Click to enlarge

AP Moller-Maersk is to sell its oil and gas assets to French firm Total for $7.45 billion, a decision the matriarch of the founding family described as “difficult, but right”.

The agreement follows an announcement late last year by Maersk that it would split its operations into two entities, one focussed on energy (Maersk Oil), the other on container shipping, ports and logistics (Maersk Line).

At the time the company also said it was turning its focus more towards the freighting arm­—a hinted invitation to those interested in its oil assets, and one that Total has now taken up.

Maersk’s dual businesses had been hit by a perfect storm in recent years: Low oil prices and a slowdown in global freighting. Last year the $40-billion-a-year group reported its “unsatisfactory” $711 million profit, describing “headwinds in all of our markets”.

Ane Maersk Mc-Kinney Uggla, is chair of the AP Moller Foundation which owns the controlling stake in AP Moller-Maersk, and said the deal with Total was “difficult, but [the] right decision”.

Uggla is the granddaughter of Peter Maersk Moller, who founded Maersk in 1904.

“Maersk Oil has for almost half a century been at the forefront of the Danish oil development, been vital to AP Moller-Maersk and to this very day plays a decisive role in the Danish and international oil and gas industry,” Uggla said.

“This gives us pride. As owners, we seek the best foundation for the future growth of the Maersk Oil activities and the focused development of the Danish North Sea.”

Chief executive of AP Moller-Maersk, Soren Skou, said the value of the agreement with Total was “a testament to the quality and standing of Maersk Oil”.

“In addition, the agreement will strengthen the financial flexibility of AP Moller-Maersk and free up resources to focus our future growth on container shipping, ports and logistics,” Skou said.

The deal with Total, however, is not a clean break from oil for Maersk. Under the terms of the agreement, Maersk would acquire $4.95 billion in Total shares (a 3.76% stake), while the remainder of the $7.45 billion would be made up of Total assuming Maersk debt.

Maersk’s Denmark base will now become the regional hub for all Total’s operations in Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands.

Patrick Pouyanné, chair and chief executive of Total, said his company would use Maersk’s expertise to accelerate Danish oil and gas production.

“With Maersk Oil’s technical and operating competencies and Total’s experience and strong financial position, we have an exceptional opportunity to boost the combined competitive position in several core upstream regions and deliver growth, value creation and career opportunities,”; Pouyanné said.
About the Author
Alexandra Newlove
Senior Writer

Alexandra Newlove is a Senior Writer who joined the CampdenFB team in 2017. Previously, she worked in New Zealand as a news reporter with Fairfax Media and NZME. Alex is a qualified journalist, who also has a degree in criminology and psychology. When not writing about the issues which affect family businesses, Alex is a keen cook, runner, and voracious consumer of books and news.

[grupo guitarlumber] 25/8/2017 07:33

Maersk Trims Sails by Selling Oil Assets -- WSJ
22/08/2017 8:02am
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France's Total to pay $4.95 billion in shares, as Danish group focuses on shipping

By Sarah Kent and Costas Paris

This article is being republished as part of our daily reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S. print edition of The Wall Street Journal (August 22, 2017).

Total SA has agreed to acquire Danish conglomerate A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S's oil unit for $4.95 billion, signaling a renewed appetite for deals in the global oil-and-gas industry.

The deal will help the French energy giant bolster its position among the world's largest oil companies, potentially boosting its earnings and cash flow and shoring up its ability to pay dividends.

By 2019, Total now says its production will reach 3 million barrels a day of oil and gas -- a level achieved by only a handful of private companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC. Total currently produces around 2.5 million barrels a day.

For Maersk, among the world's largest shipping companies, the deal streamlines its business as it grapples with historic downturns in both the shipping and oil industries.

It is the first sale for Maersk after it announced plans to break up the company last September. It is also looking to sell or list by the end of next year other units, such as Maersk Drilling, which operates oil and gas rigs mainly in the North Sea, and Maersk Tankers, which moves oil and oil products on a fleet of 158 vessels, and Maersk Supply, a fleet of 44 support ships for offshore operations.

Maersk is trying to reshape itself into a global supply-chain player like United Parcel Service Inc. and FedEx Corp. The plan involves moving more ships through its port operations, APM Terminals, and more cargo inland through Damco, its supply-management division handling airfreight, trucks and warehouses.

"We are investing in our core business" of shipping, Maersk Group Chief Executive Soren Skou said. The sale to Total "will strengthen the financial flexibility of AP Moller-Maersk and free up resources to focus our future growth on container shipping, ports and logistics," he said.

The acquisition, announced by both companies on Monday, is the latest sign of consolidation in the oil-and-gas industry, which finally appears to be stabilizing after a prolonged downturn in petroleum prices.

Total and other big oil companies say they have reduced their costs enough to generate cash at crude prices at current levels, about $50 a barrel, giving them flexibility to grow through acquisitions.

In the U.S., where small shale-oil producers have proved remarkably resilient amid low energy prices, the sector has experienced a flurry of deals. So far this year, deals in North America have totaled $73.2 billion, more than in all of 2016, according to data from Edinburgh-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Activity has also picked up internationally, particularly in Europe. Though the number of European deals so far this year stands at roughly half the level of those completed in 2016, their value has reached $16.8 billion, compared with $5.3 billion in all of 2016, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Many of the acquirers have been private-equity firms and smaller players, eager to get a foothold in major oil areas such as the North Sea.

Earlier this year, Shell sold its British North Sea assets to Chrysaor Holdings Ltd. in a deal valued at as much as $3.8 billion. Chrysaor is backed by Harbour Energy Ltd., an investment vehicle managed by Washington-based EIG Global Energy Partners.

Total's acquisition of Maersk Oil is one of the biggest deals in the sector since Shell's roughly $50 billion acquisition of BG Group last year.

Total will pay for the deal with $4.95 billion in shares, while also taking on $2.5 billion in Maersk oil debt. The French company will also assume nearly $3 billion in expected costs for decommissioning oil rigs in the North Sea.

In Monday trading, Total's shares rose 0.3% while Maersk closed up 2.9%.

"We imagine [Total] investors won't be overly enthused with the idea of buying more oil barrels when they are overly concerned with falling oil demand," Bernstein said Monday in a note that praised the deal for adding potentially profitable barrels.

The deal is a vote of confidence in the North Sea, where around 80% of Maersk's reserves are located. The region has been a major oil-and-gas hub for decades but has also been plagued by high costs, aging infrastructure and declining production.

Total will be northwest Europe's second-largest offshore operator once the deal closes, expected in next year's first quarter. The deal has been approved by both companies' boards but remains subject to shareholder votes and regulatory approvals.

--Dominic Chopping contributed to this article.

Write to Sarah Kent at [e-mail] and Costas Paris at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 22, 2017 02:47 ET (06:47 GMT)

[grupo guitarlumber] 24/8/2017 20:47

(CercleFinance.com) - Up 0.5% to 43.6 euros, Total is on track to sign - in reverse of the trend - a third consecutive session in positive territory. The French oil giant has the wind in the back after the acquisition of Maersk Oil, its largest external growth since 2000.

As a reminder, he announced Monday that he had disbursed $ 7.45 billion to buy Maersk Oil, in a share and debt deal. In detail, the agreement stipulates that the Danish shipping giant AP Möller-Maersk will receive the equivalent of 4.95 billion dollars by issuing 97.5 million shares of Total shares, which will also take over in its account 2 , 5 billion Maersk Oil debt.

This operation will make Patrick Pouyanné Group the second operator in the North Sea, benefiting from major positions in the UK, Norway and Denmark, and will increase the share of conventional OECD assets in its portfolio. It is also welcomed by brokers like UBS, which yesterday raised its advice from 'neutral' to 'buy' and raised its target price from 48 to 50 euros.

The Swiss analyst judges the amount invested reasonable, particularly in view of the quality of assets acquired, and in line with recent operations in the sector.

The same goes for Oddo, which has confirmed its "buy" advice and its target price of 53 euros in the wake of the announcement of this transaction which is expected to be finalized in the first quarter of 2018 and generate $ 400 million of Synergies by 2020 according to its calculations.

"This acquisition will allow Total to increase its reserves in the OECD zone, which is less risky than Africa and the Middle East where the group is strongly present," said the intermediary, who also considers' Acquisition and welcomes the immediacy of the deal on EPS and cash flow.

[florenceorbis] 20/8/2017 16:18

BREST (FRANCE) (AFP) -

A tanker carrying liquefied natural gas has made the passage from Europe to Asia via the Arctic unaided, a maritime course that has become possible due to global warming, energy firm Total said Thursday.

It is "the first commercial vessel to travel alone the Northern Sea Route which permits reaching Asia in 15 days via the Bering Strait," said the French firm.

That is half the time it takes to travel to Asia via the Suez Canal, according to Total.

The 300-metre (984-foot) vessel, the Christophe de Margerie, was launched in June and is the first ice-class LNG tanker that can travel the northern route without escorting icebreakers from July to November.

It left Snovhit in Norway on July 27 after taking on LNG and is travelling to the port of Boryeong in South Korea.

The vessel is the first of 15 that Total and its partners have ordered to transport gas from the Yamal peninsula along Russia's arctic coast.

Global warming has made the northern passage along Europe and Asia navigable for longer periods in recent years, although merchant vessels have until now needed icebreakers to accompany them.

[ariane] 13/8/2017 08:30

votreagent.fr


In a context of high oil price volatility, Total performed relatively well in the second quarter and even exceeded market expectations. While expectations averaged around $ 2.3 billion, net income rose 14% to $ 2.47 billion, driven by a 9% year-on-year To a further decrease in the cost of production of the company.

It should be able to be brought back to the year at $ 5.5 per barrel oil equivalent (against $ 5.9 per barrel last year and $ 5 per barrel forecast in 2018).

In the end, the company will have achieved savings of $ 3.5 billion since 2014. The priority remains clearly focused on increasing production over the next few years and all the work to optimize the cost structure Upstream will make it easier to make new projects more profitable.

The strong generation of $ 1.49 billion in net cash flows enabled the group to accelerate its deleveraging and to finance the continuation of its investments estimated over the whole year between 14 and 15 billion of dollars.

Net debt now amounts to only 20.3% of the shareholders' equity at the end of June (compared with 22.7% at the end of the first quarter and 30% a year earlier).

Proof of the group's confidence in its prospects even in the context of still low oil prices, an advance of € 0.62 per share will be paid on January 11, 2018. At 12.2 and 11.5 times, the stock remains good Market and yield (of the order of 5.5%). This is why we notice our opinion from "rather negative" to "somewhat positive".

The more and the less of the file

+ Recovery of oil prices

+ High return and attractive valuation

-The unstable oil environment

[grupo guitarlumber] 10/8/2017 17:36

Photographer: Trevor Snapp/Bloomberg
OPEC Finally Catches a Break
By Grant Smith
and Alex Longley
10 August 2017, 15:57 CEST

Price spreads increasingly signal demand outpacing supplies
Brent in longest stretch of backwardation since April 2016

The key sign of OPEC’s success may finally be here.

Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries embarked on its strategy to clear a global glut, analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Bank of America Corp. have said that one critical indicator would show the plan is working: the discount on immediate crude would turn into a premium. That condition known as backwardation signals demand is outpacing supply.

This pattern is becoming increasingly visible in the market for Brent futures, the international crude benchmark. On Wednesday, the front-month Brent contract was more expensive than the second-month contract for a second day, a situation last seen in April 2016, and the trend is spreading to subsequent months along what’s known as the oil futures curve.

Oil prices have lost about 6 percent in London this year as production cuts by OPEC and Russia fail to clear the global surplus, stirring speculation the curbs haven’t been deep enough and that rebounding U.S. supplies are canceling their impact. Prices have stabilized above $50 a barrel this month as diminishing U.S. inventories signal OPEC’s actions are finally having an effect.

“The objective of OPEC was to draw down crude-oil stocks and bring the structure into backwardation,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultants Petromatrix GmbH. “We currently observe crude-oil stock draws and a prompt backwardation in Brent. We might not be back to the five-year average in stocks but some rebalancing is occurring.”

October Brent contracts, the front month on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, were at $53.49 a barrel at 2:06 p.m. in London. That’s 18 cents a barrel above the second month, November, which in turn has moved to a premium to the third month for the first time since 2014, when Brent traded for more than $100 a barrel.

Spreads further out in time are also narrowing, with December 2018 versus December 2017 -- known to traders as the “red spread” -- having shrunk from $2.52 on July 10 to as little as 21 cents on Thursday.
Market Rebalancing

“The rebalancing of the oil market is happening, with demand catching up with supply,” said Jan Edelmann, an analyst at HSH Nordbank AG in Hamburg.

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih pledged last month to constrain the kingdom’s exports this summer as OPEC’s biggest member seeks to lead the group by example.

“People are betting that the Saudi promise to cut exports will have a significant impact on the supply side,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

Not that OPEC and its partners can take all the credit, according to consultants Energy Aspects Ltd. Oil demand has strengthened, making up for patchy delivery of cutbacks by some other OPEC members, said Amrita Sen, the company’s chief oil analyst. Iraq has lagged behind other nations in implementing its curbs.

“This does not mean OPEC can rest on its laurels,” said Sen. “It is demand that is leading the way.”
Elusive Goal

The shift in the curve may also have some unwelcome consequences for the group. A premium on immediate supplies encourages traders to pull barrels out of storage, potentially compounding the short-term surplus.

Although price spreads show OPEC is making progress, its ultimate objective of reducing inventories to their five-year average remains some way off. Inventories in developed nations were 252 million barrels above this level in June, the organization said in a report on Thursday.

“We are moving in the right direction, but we don’t expect them to reach the five-year average by the end of the year,” said Spencer Welch, director of oil markets and downstream at consultants IHS Markit in London. “There are certainly indications” the supply curbs are working, “although I wouldn’t say conclusive proof yet.”

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.

[maywillow] 06/8/2017 21:49

Ex-dividend date for the remainder of the 2016 dividend
September 25, 2017

[grupo guitarlumber] 06/8/2017 10:33

Iran preparing to award $15bn in new oil deals
Sun Aug 6, 2017 9:1AM

HomeIranEnergy

An aerial view of oil production platforms in Soroush oil field in the Persian Gulf.
An aerial view of oil production platforms in Soroush oil field in the Persian Gulf.

Iran says it expects to attract as much as $15 billion in foreign investments into its oil and gas projects before next April.

The announcement was made by Gholam-Reza Manouchehri, the deputy director for development and engineering affairs of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC).

Manouchehri was quoted by domestic media as saying that the next Iranian oil and gas awards would be based on the framework of the agreement signed with the French energy giant Total last month over the development of South Pars Phase 11.

The deal for phase 11 of the field marked the first by a major global energy company signed with Iran since the easing of sanctions against Tehran in January 2016.

Under the deal, Total, Iran’s Petropars and France’s CNPC are about to produce 2 billion cubic feet (56 million cubic meters) of natural gas per day for 20 years through an investment of about $5 billion.

Elsewhere in his remarks, Manouchehri added that the NIOC was close to awarding the development of South Azadegan oil field. The project, he told Iran’s IRNA news agency, was the closest to finalization among NIOC’s top priority projects together with the development of South Pars Oil Layer.

Last month, Iran’s Petroleum Minister Bijan Zanganeh emphasized that Asian and European companies are negotiating participation in Iran’s oil and gas development projects which would potentially need $200 billion worth of investment.

Zanganeh added that Iran was already planning to absorb 65% to 70% of this sum from abroad, the minister told Iran’s Parliament.

[grupo guitarlumber] 02/8/2017 16:54

EIA Reports Crude Oil Inventories Fell 1.5 Million Barrels, WTI Oil Price Retreats
By
Tim Clayton -
August 2, 2017 - 14:44 UTC
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The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data recorded an inventory draw of 1.53 million barrels for the week ending July 28th following a draw of 7.2 million barrels the previous week.

Consensus forecasts were for a decline of 2.8 million barrels, although another unexpected build in the API data triggered a fresh round of uncertainty ahead of the EIA release.

Crude inventories declined to 481.9 million barrels and were down 2.0% on the year, although still in the upper half of seasonal inventory levels. Refinery use rose 1.1% on the week following a 0.3% increase the previous week which will help underpin expectations of firm demand for crude.

Cushing inventories recorded a marginal draw on the week.

Domestic crude production recorded a gain of 0.2% on the week at 9.41mn bpd following last week’s decline and there was an increase of 11.5% over the year.

Gasoline inventories recorded a draw of 2.5 million barrels on the week with a 4.4% annual decline while distillate recorded a draw of 0.2 million barrels with a year-on-year decline of 2.4%.

The fuel data should help underpin underlying confidence, especially given the decline in stocks from year-ago levels, although much of the improvement is likely to have been priced in.

The API data had recorded a build of 1.78mn for the latest week, although this followed a much larger than expected draw of 10.2 million barrels for the previous week.

There was choppy trading in oil prices following the data with net losses to the $48.70 p/b area from $49.05 with disappointment over the headline figure and increase in production.

[maywillow] 01/8/2017 19:34

Total: An Oil Major That Gushes High Dividends
Aug. 1, 2017 1:47 PM ET|
About: TOTAL S.A. (TOT)
Cash-Centered Creep
Cash-Centered Creep
Dividend growth investing, dividend investing, long-term horizon
(834 followers)
Summary

Total recently released its Q2 results.

The firm is one of the world's oil Supermajors.

It offers a very sustainable 5%+ dividend.

On July 27, Total S.A. (TOT) released its Q2 results, showing revenues of $34.5 billion, which missed estimates by $1.22 billion, and EPS of $0.97, which beat estimates by $0.05. On the same date, Total also declared a €0.62 second interim dividend to be paid out on December 19.

On July 13, Goldman Sachs analysts declared Total to be the top choice among the oil majors, citing its combination of cash flow generation (6.5% 2017-2019 free cash flow yield), high growth (estimated 5% compound annual growth rate on production up to 2020), and high return on new investment opportunities. Goldman sees Total as possessing better cost discipline and execution than peers such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Eni (E) - though they also rated Eni a buy as a "higher return business."

In light of all this, it would be wise to take a look at Total S.A. as a prospective investment.
Company Overview

Founded in 1924 by Ernest Mercier under the direction of French premier Raymond Poincaré, Total S.A. is a French multinational integrated oil and gas firm. Classed as one of the global oil Supermajors, Total divides its operations into three segments: Upstream; Refining and Chemicals; and Marketing and Services. The latter two segments essentially comprise the company's downstreaming activities.

Upstream covers activities such as exploring and producing hydrocarbons, as well as gas and power. Refining and Chemicals covers oil trading and shipping, and includes an industrial hub where refining, petrochemicals and specialty chemicals related activities are carried out. Marketing and Services covers the supply and marketing of petroleum products, and also covers new energies.

Total S.A. is headquartered in Courbevoie, France, has a workforce of over 102,000 employees, and has a market capitalization of $126.30 billion.
Competitive Advantage

Total's chief competitive advantage is its integrated business model. Upstreaming - the search for and drilling of crude oil and natural gas underground and underwater - is profitable when energy prices are high, which they are not right now.

However, downstreaming - the refining of crude oil and purification of natural gas, and the marketing and distribution of their products - is profitable when energy prices are low. Total benefits from having both bases covered. In a low-priced energy environment such as the one that has been experienced in recent years, a company like Total that has upstreaming and downstreaming operations can remain profitable, as its revenue and net income figures testify.
Year Revenue ($) Net Income ($)
2012 234.22 billion 13.65 billion
2013 227.97 billion 11.23 billion
2014 212.02 billion 4.24 billion
2015 143.42 billion 5.09 billion
2016 127.93 billion 6.20 billion

The decline in revenue has to be looked at in the context of the volatility caused by the low energy price environment. What should be noted is the rise in net income from 2014 onwards, which confirms Goldman Sachs' judgement on Total's superior cost discipline.

Going forward, Total has a number of recent and future projects that promise future growth and sustainable returns:

In addition to these, Total also recently secured a 30% stake in Qatar's offshore Al-Shaheen oil field, and also has a 20-year deal to help develop Iran's South Pars gas field from 2021 onwards. In short, Total is not short on opportunities for continuing to provide its shareholders with value for money going forward.
Valuation And Taxation

Currently, Total is trading in the $50 range with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.93 and a forward P/E ratio of 11.00, and it offers a dividend yield of 5.45% with a payout ratio of 92.10%. That payout ratio looks unsustainable until you consider the fact that Total operates in over 130 countries, and consequently a great deal of its business revenue comes from overseas. The exchange rate moves thus make the payout ratio seem so inflated.

The stock is trading with a lower P/E ratio than its five-year average of 23.6, and also with a somewhat lower dividend yield than its five-year average yield of 6.79%. Given this, and the fact that the stock is trading 7.38% below its 52-week high of $54.71, and the company seems to offer an attractive entry point.

However, one major issue that many prospective investors would have with Total is the high withholding tax rate of 30% that France levies. Though this still leaves shareholders with a significant amount of income after tax, it is understandable why many investors would be bearish about Total on these grounds alone.
Final Thoughts

If the withholding tax rate and current low energy price environment are not enough to deter you, then Total S.A. can be seen as a reliable income provider due to its integrated business model, its international reach, and its ongoing and future projects. All of these aspects ensure that Total will keep rewarding shareholders with sizable dividends going forward - even after the French tax has been applied!

[grupo guitarlumber] 31/7/2017 09:55

Mark Kofler, an analyst at Jefferies, does not see any catalysts for a revaluation of Total. For this expert, who has just reduced its target value price from 48 to 46.50 euros while remaining "to keep", the French oil giant has accomplished the bulk of his roadmap to optimize his free cash -flow in the current environment. Mark Kofler's title is likely to run out of fuel in the face of comparables that remain behind on the pitch. "We do not expect a major shift in production and investment objectives over the medium term, even if, in our view, a positive message on the goal of cost savings of $ 4 billion for 2018 is Probable, "says Mark Kofler. The broker acknowledges Total's defensive qualities but does not consider the valuation multiples of Patrick Pouyanné's group discounted, which justifies maintaining its neutral opinion on the matter

[grupo guitarlumber] 28/7/2017 17:33

Oddo continues to be seduced by the Total title which he recommends to "buy" by targeting 53 euros. Total offers the industry's best production growth of 4%, the best ROACE at 8.1% (expected to rise to 10% in 2019-2020), a resilient downstream and a low cash breakeven at $ 50 per barrel , Says the broker. Moreover, the valuation is attractive ...

[waldron] 26/7/2017 15:29

Investors to Big Oil: Restrain Yourselves
26/07/2017 12:29pm
Dow Jones News

Total (EU:FP)
Intraday Stock Chart

Today : Wednesday 26 July 2017
Click Here for more Total Charts.

By Sarah Kent

Three years into an oil price slump, investors want the world's biggest oil companies to do something they have historically struggled with: Maintain some financial discipline.

The companies are under pressure to show they are continuing to move on from budget-busting projects once common in the industry, as they head into second-quarter financial disclosures that begin on Thursday with Royal Dutch Shell PLC and Total SA.

Shell, Total and peers like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., which both report earnings Friday, have reined in spending through an oil-market downturn during which crude prices fell from $114 a barrel to $27 a barrel and remain around $50 a barrel. Those efforts paid off in the first quarter, when the companies returned to billion-dollar profits after years of losses or anemic earnings.

Now, said Jags Walia, senior portfolio manager at Dutch pension fund manager APG Asset Management, "there's no room to take your foot off on capital discipline."

"I think that would be quite unforgivable." said Mr. Walia, whose fund invests in several large oil companies, including Exxon, Shell and BP.

It's a call for big oil companies to keep the ship steady, reflecting the fine line they are walking this year.

International oil prices were up nearly 10% in the second quarter compared with the same time last year. But prices are still likely too low for many companies to cover spending and dividends with cash, or break even. At the same time, the companies have to keep finding new oil to replace the barrels they are pumping. That means spending money on exploration, development and acquisitions.

BP, which reports earnings next Tuesday, faced criticism from investors and analysts after a flurry of acquisitions inflated its investment plans for 2017 and pushed up the oil price at which the company could break even to $60 a barrel. The company's shares fell 4% following the February announcement. It has since said it is working to drive down its break-even oil price to between $35 to $40 a barrel by 2021.

It isn't just BP. The number of new projects approved this year across the industry is expected to creep up to between 20 and 25 from just 12 in 2016, according to Edinburgh-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

The oil companies declined to comment ahead of their earnings reports.

But they have moved to tackle the challenges.

BP's costs are down 40% since 2013 and it has vowed to maintain a budget cap of $17 billion a year out to 2021.

At BP's first-quarter results in May, Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary said the company intended to deliver on promises to increase cash flow and dividends in the coming years by "maintaining strict discipline within our financial frame and staying focused on delivering returns."

Exxon's capital spending last year was $12 billion lower than in 2015, though it has crept higher this year. The company says it is focusing a chunk of its firepower on shale developments that start to generate cash quickly.

Chevron has said it will be able to cover its spending and dividends with cash at $50 a barrel this year with the help of asset sales. In April, Chevron said it had lowered capital spending 22% compared with its average quarter in 2016 and 56% versus the average quarter in 2014. The company plans to spend $17 billion to $22 billion a year out to the end of the decade.

"If oil prices remain near the $50 per barrel mark, you can expect to see our future spend near the bottom of this range," CFO Patricia Yarrington told analysts in April.

The companies have said that they still have room to cut further and that they can start to invest in new projects without returning to the spendthrift era that eroded returns before the oil price crash in 2014. Capital spending on new projects sanctioned so far this year is on average just $11 per barrel of oil equivalent, down from $15 in 2015, according to Wood Mackenzie.

"I think a lot of these companies have found religion," said Brian Youngberg, senior energy analyst at brokerage firm Edward Jones. "They realize now they can't just spend, spend, spend. They have to be more disciplined with their capital."

Exxon, Shell, BP and Chevron have all indicated they will be able to generate enough cash this year to cover spending and shareholder payouts at $60 a barrel, but at $50 the picture is more mixed. Even next year, many of them will still need higher oil prices to cover their costs, according to analysis by Macquarie.

Investors remain cautious. Big oil companies' share prices are little changed or lower than at the same time last year, even though oil prices are higher. For instance, Exxon's share price is down more than 10% from a year ago.

The companies still have high debt levels, and some -- like Shell and Total -- offer dividends as company shares, known as scrip, helping them to preserve cash but also diluting investors' earnings per share.

"We need to see discipline and people being more realistic about where oil prices could remain for quite a long time," said Jason Kenney, an oil-company analyst at Spanish lender, Banco Santander.

It's a tall order for an industry that struggled to break even when oil was at $100 a barrel. And the challenge facing the companies could be more difficult after banks revised their oil-price forecasts downward in recent months.

"The goal posts have moved," Deutsche Bank said earlier this month. "It's time to go away and remodel for a $45 to $50 a barrel world."

Write to Sarah Kent at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 26, 2017 07:14 ET (11:14 GMT)

[maywillow] 25/7/2017 23:10

Total continues fight over FERC authority in gas manipulation case

Houston (Platts)--25 Jul 2017 356 pm EDT/1956 GMT

Total Gas & Power North America has told a US appeals court that its legal costs to defend itself against Federal Energy Regulatory Commission accusations of price manipulation gives the court jurisdiction to hear the company's challenge of FERC's authority, leaving no need for the court to wait until after the commission makes a final decision.

The heart of the dispute centers on FERC's power to determine Natural Gas Act violations and impose penalties through an administrative proceeding, a case the industry has watched because of how it could impact other market participants. Their fear is that the court's role as an impartial finder of fact is being circumvented and companies' procedural rights are being denied.

Total Gas & Power North America, the French energy giant's North American gas trading unit, has asked the full 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals to reconsider a three-judge panel's rejection of the company's challenge. The panel found the challenge should not now be reviewed because FERC has not made a final decision of wrongdoing nor formally assessed the almost $226 million in penalties and disgorgement of profits that the agency has proposed. Total argues the money it is paying lawyers constitutes ongoing harm, and therefore the appeals court can review the merits of the case now.

"There is no question that plaintiffs face more expense and burden defending against a potentially binding administrative adjudication of liability, with imposition of severe penalties, than in a proceeding where FERC can only propose penalties for alleged violations," Total wrote in its court filing Monday.




In 2015, FERC initiated an anti-manipulation probe against the Houston-based Total subsidiary and disclosed that staff had made a preliminary finding that the company and two of its trading managers had executed a plan to manipulate gas prices in the Southwest between 2009 and 2012. FERC later issued an order to show cause why Total should not have to pay $216.6 million in civil penalties and turn over, or disgorge, $9.2 million in purportedly unjust profits, plus interest.

Total says that while FERC has not made a final decision, the enforcement staff has urged it to make several conclusive factual findings and "historically, FERC has always taken the actions urged by its enforcement staff." The company argues that federal courts are the deciders of fact in a Natural Gas Act violation case and FERC is only allowed to assess proposed penalties. FERC argues it has authority in such cases to both determine wrongdoing and assess penalties.

The appeals court relied on a prior court decision in a case involving pipeline operator Energy Transfer Partners, which found that such matters are not ripe for appeal until FERC makes a final determination of an NGA violation. But Total, in its latest filing, focuses heavily on a US Supreme Court case involving a dispute between a shipper and a group of shipping companies.

In that case, which involved Stolt-Nielsen, a provider of transportation and storage of specialty chemicals and other bulk liquids, the high court held that "being forced to defend in an unauthorized adjudicative proceeding can constitute sufficient hardship" to make the dispute ripe for appeals review, Total said.

"The 'hardship' that made the action in Stolt-Nielsen ripe was nothing other than litigation expenses -- the costs and burdens of 'submitting to class determination proceedings,'" Total says in its request for the full appeals court to reconsider its challenge. "Indeed, the injury here is even more concrete."

--Harry Weber, [e-mail]

--Edited by Richard Rubin, [e-mail]