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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toluna | TOL | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 317.50 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 317.50 | 317.50 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 16/2/2011 08:46 by kenmitch A brilliant deal for TOL shareholders - all the better for being in cash thanks to the arrangement by EVT and Invesco to make that possible.With short term risks for Toluna and the need for more investment this looks an ideal time to take the Company private and I'm very pleased with the price too. Without such a deal now, and bearing in mind the trading update, it is unlikely that the Toluna share price would have done much and might even have come under short term pressure. OK that would have provided TOL investors with a chance to top up lower ahead of strong performance, but that could have meant another year or two, instead of which we get a 30% uplift in the share price now and are able to realise the profit. This is all good news for EVT shareholders too, and EVT will now have more time for their other very promising investments and they are going to have a lot more cash from June too. EVT shares are far too low even after the bounce following the TOL news and look well worth buying and there should be very little downside risk with that substantial discount to NAV. And if the share price does drift lower then EVT will be an even better buy. This is yet another example of Richard Bernstein's deal making and Management qualities. Yes, the EVT share price performance has bee disappointing but in the end again they have pulled a rabbit out of the hat. |
Posted at 11/8/2008 13:20 by kenmitch ninjatnut.I don't recall seeing any posts from you on TOL before. Your comment can apply to many shares, even big Companies. What about the effects on share prices of some of our largest Companies thanks to Hedge Fund activities? As it happens I can't recall the share price of Toluna ever being manipulated since the Company listed. Even with smaller companies that is more likely on a share very popular with private investors, or one held by overgeared spread betters or those looking for quick profits on T20s or T25s. If they are all forced to sell around the same time then the share price will fall, at least for a time. TOL has not got a big following, and is not held by a lot of overenthusiastic gamblers.Indeed have a look at the main shareholders to see how quality Institutions have invested. Anyway unlike many smaller company shares the TOL share price now is higher than it was in January. That's an impressive performance in a bear market. I suggest you have a good look at TOL and Eurovestech (Eurovestech hold about 50% of TOL) and concentrate on company fundamentals rather than misplaced concerns about either of these two Companies having their share prices manipulated. |
Posted at 17/9/2007 15:38 by kenmitch Interest in this sector has declined in recent months. Even so there might be one or two here still following TOL. Posted the following on Mike Walters paysite earlier today. "Recent interim results from Toluna were very good but passed almost unnoticed. BB comment on TOL has dried up for now, but all is going very well. More and more Companies - if not investors for now - are cottoning on to the huge advantages, in terms of speed and cost, of conducting their surveys online. PBT up 53% to £1.4 million. Net cash £3.9 million. EPS up 48% to 2.51p Strong cash generation - up 81% to £1.6 million. Operating margins just slightly down at 21.6%. Currency costs and accounting charges for the 25000 shares gifted to charities account for the very small fall in the still very impressive margins. Dividend raised again - to 0.37p. Profits/progress looks well on schedule to reach or probably exceed what seemed ambitious targets in the Cenkos broker buy note. i.e £3.8 million PBT for 2007 and £5.4 million in 2008. The second half is always stronger than the first. Toluna now has 1.6 million panellists in 26 Countries. They have Offices in 6 Countries and have expanded their offering to Scandinavia and South America. Loads on the excellent Toluna website www.tolunapro.com and lots too on their www.testandvote.com website if wanting to become a panellist or to find out a lot more. Toluna confirms a high level of repeat business. Still about 70%. There have again been significant client gains. Also yet again there is 100% repeat business for their technology offering Automate Survey. Clients for this have now reached 59, with 13 new clients. Most are big blue chip Companies. 100% repeat business says it all. Other news/progress includes an improved version of Automate Survey and a new version of PanelPortal. The recent acquisition of DPoll seems to be going very well, and includes online community features. Apparently they have some world class web engineers. Very soon they will be launching unique and highly innovative web community initiatives. YouGov has recently gone for a fund raising to pay for 3 large acquisitions, and YouGov remains better known in the UK than French company Toluna. Toluna continues to look for small add on acquisitions like DPoll. That's a lower risk approach that is clearly working. The share price has done nothing for quite a while and since falling 20% in the market wobble last March. Interest in the sector among private investors has declined judging by the almost total lack of comment on bbs over recent months. One good thing about that is that unlike what happened last March the shares so far have seemed immune to recent big rises and falls in the markets. There are clear plusses holding shares that are not popular with spread betters subject to margin calls too. If not holding it is probably safe to sit and watch from the sidelines for a while longer but to keep an eye out for increased interest in the sector again ,and with Toluna for any possible further Institutional buying. Top Fund Manager Neil Woodford has bought large stakes in both Toluna and Eurovestech over recent years. Am not suggesting that he will buy even more, but buying by other Institutions, if they can get hold of the shares as only around 10% are not accounted for by big investors, would be another plus point. Another plus for Toluna is that should there be an economic slowdown then the need for cost saving by large Companies could even lead to increased business. Online surveys are so much cheaper and faster than the old fashioned methods so many Companies are still using. Even now online research only accounts for 20% of the research market. Toluna's chunk of that 20% is getting larger too. And that 20% looks likely to increase strongly too. Also as explained before another way into Toluna is to buy Eurovestech shares which look cheap. Eurovestech still hold 50% of Toluna. Eurovestech shares too have done nothing for ages now and that might last a bit longer. BUT Eurovestech results are out at the end of this month and one of their new Investments, Mist Technologies looks a potential blockbuster. For more information on French Company Mist see their website Mist have developed a way of changing mono and stereo sound into high definition quality sound. Already their unique offering is being used by a number of top Companies and the potential looks massive,for cinema and broadcasting and in the home for top quality high definition sound to go with that High Definition picture. And that potential looks in the short term too. No doubt there will be more on Mist's progress when EVT report shortly. But with their current 3 big successes - KSS, Magenta and TOL all doing well, another big success soon might well give EVT shares a much needed boost before too much longer. It could well be that Mist, another French Company will in time prove as big a success for EVT as Toluna." |
Posted at 03/4/2007 13:24 by kenmitch Good to see a couple of other posts, well informed ones too. Also shows that there are a few of us who have spotted the attractions of this sector. Amazing really that apart from Institutions few private investors among those who post on bbs seem to realise that there is a structural shift to online research which has miles further to go. Most are probably put off by the high ratings without understanding why they are high or how quickly they are coming down. There's a wealth of difference between investing in blue sky shares at inflated prices where there is hope of big profits several years away - if then - than in shares in the online research sector where profits are happening now and growing at a very fast rate. I had decided to buy RNOW on the day of their very bullish trading update so just missed the boat. Up till then a negative had been the lower profit margins. Now TOL remains my favourite of the three. With YOU a possible negative is the Middle East. With RNOW investors need confirmation that their latest acquisition was a good one. TOL have confirmed that SPEEDFACTS was a good buy, and their latest small acquisition at minimal cost sounds promising too. We know that EVT/TOL are cautious and unlikely to spoil things by over paying for some dodgy acquistion. Any bolt ons are likely to be earnings enhancing quickly. Comment in the results statement suggests we might be hearing more fairly soon. Re. competition. For a good while yet, it is hard to see where this is coming from. WJCCGHCC you got your timing right with that TOL purchase at 195p. Nice rise in the share price today. At least after these excellent results we can be confident that if the market throws another wobbly and the TOL share price is again marked down, that it should prove a buying/top up opportunity. |
Posted at 02/4/2007 12:58 by kenmitch I've posted about the latest excellent Toluna results over on Mike Walters bulletin board. Rather than write much of it again here (especially as there don't seem to be many here these days) I've just copied and pasted the key points from that post. Apologies for the irrelevant bits and for the parts that assume readers have little knowledge of TOL and or the online research sector. If others don't share my enthusiasm no doubt they will post - assuming that is that there are still some TOL shareholders who are also readers of this bb. I realise btw that I made a mistake in not buying shares in YOU and RNOW as well. Congratulations to those who did. Surprising isn't it how few private investors have cottoned on the explosive growth potential in this sector. At least I bought one of them, and still hold TOL and EVT. Anyway below is that MW post - a bit edited. "Key results headlines. Revenues, profits and turnover all ahead of expectations. Profits up 220% at £2.2 million. Margins an impressive 25.4%. Basic EPS 4.03p. Excluding deferred tax EPS about 5p. Increase in the dividend. Final dividend of 0.5p making 0.7p for the year. Highly cash generative. Cash generated from operations of £1.9 million in 2006, and cash reserves of £3.6 million. Repeat business 70%. 100% repeat business again for their technology offering Automate Survey. All suggests very contented clients. Panels in 20 Countries. Panellists now up to 1.4 million. 246 clients (even more now) and many of them major Companies. OTHER KEY POINTS. First new modules of their update to Automate Survey now in operation. Likely to lead to increased business and revenues. Acquisition of dPolls.com - fairly low key in the results statement. But such small bolt on acquisitions at very low cost are of course relatively risk free too. TOL apparently have high hopes of this one adding significantly to revenues and to the community aspect of their panel operations. This community aspect was one of the factors influencing Google to pay such a big price for youtube. Mention in the statement too of their looking for further such acquisitions. Now to the key point. There is no doubt that many private investors have been put off TOL because of the seemingly racy rating. e.g the respected Nil Desperandum dismissed TOL in a very short post here simply headed "Wow what a rating!"He probably put off quite a few others in the process and I KNOW if I hadn't been following the Company such a post would have influenced me not to look any further! Since that post the shares have gone up another 80p or so. Similarly some very respected posters here - some sadly no longer posting - dismissed or sold Eurovestech on the same grounds when EVT shares were around 3p compared with just over 20p now. So here's the case, briefly. 1. When TOL floated at 70p, profits were around £35,000 and market cap around £25 million. That meant a PE in the thousands! Despite that incredible rating there was strong Institutional support (and there still is) for the shares even at that price. 2. Why? Simple. Because they had recognised the massive potential of the online research sector. It is so obviously the way to do research efficiently and far more quickly. What's more it is much cheaper both for the clients and for the companies providing the online reserch. A rare win/win situation. 3. Often when shares are trading on racy ratings these ratings are based on blue sky or drug hopes that MIGHT be realised a few years down the line. In the case of the online research sector profits were already being achieved and since TOL, YOU AND RNOW floated all three have seeen ambitious broker profit and turnover targets achieved and beaten. 4. That has been confirmed again today with TOL's results. They are on schedule for Cenkos forecasts of profits of £3.8 million in 2007, and £5.4 million in 2008. Indeed bearing in mind the continued rapid growth in the sector and the probability of more earnings enhancing acquisitions these targets could easily be beaten. Both EVT and TOL prefer to under promise and over deliver. i.e from a PE ratio in the 1000s in 2005, it is now down to between 40 and 50 depending on which EPS figure used, and heading for 20 or so next year and even lower the year after. 5. The evidence for this rapid growth in the online research market is clear to see, not just in the profits of TOL, YOU and RNOW. E.G Even in the more mature US market online research grew 19% last year, and in Europe it was up another 34%. But at just $277 million this is just the tip of the potential. i.e there is miles more growth to come over the next few years. One solution for the traditional research companies to adapt would be to buy up one or more of the new online research companies, probably at a racy rating to join in. As pointed out before big tradtional research companies are on the TOL client list and their repeat business shows they must be very happy with the TOL offering. So finally, where is the share price heading? Short term it is hard to say. Private investors too often don't understand the Companies or the sector and tend to be wary. Some shrewd Institutions have realised the huge potential and hold large stakes in TOL. BUT others keen to buy will find it hard as there are so few shares available to them, unless other Institutions sell their stakes. Not surprising that they don't want to sell considering the prospects. But it does mean there is no obvious reason for a big short term rise in the share price. Indeed if the market was to take another tumble shares in the sector could fall a bit more again short term. What a buying opportunity that would be should it happen. Pent up buying demand from Institutions + private investors aware of the enormous growth potential in this sector keener to buy at lower prices. Shows again the folly imho of operating rigid stop losses. If the falls are market related then such falls are a great buying opportunity and not a reason to get out at the bottom. As always nobody can really predict the share price movements short term. I'm confident though that TOL remains a wonderful long term hold. And fwiw following the excellent results and prospects news today imo there is a good chance that even if markets take another tumble TOL and maybe RNOW and YOU too might hold up well. Also there is always the chance of a bid and I wouldn't want to be out of the shares when that happens. Finally as suggested several times before another way into TOL is to buy Eurovestech instead. EVT shares are arguably cheap, and EVT still hold about 50% of TOL." |
Posted at 06/3/2007 07:26 by demark independent-060307........Toluna, an AIM-listed provider of market research software, tanked 26p to 196.5p. Market makers said that house broker Cenkos Securities was calling the price lower after retail investors decided to cash in........ dyor |
Posted at 14/11/2006 13:40 by kenmitch Thanks. Good to see a bit more interest in TOL and the sector.Pleased too to see at least one person found the shares before the price soared. egoi got his forecast of £2 this year spot on, so anyone buying after reading that post owes him a drink! Sorry I missed out the ptp and eps forecasts. As stated in the post, all 3 companies seem to be outperforming even ambitious forecasts, and my guess is the same will apply with these latest ones too. Anyone ploughing through the posts on this bb will see that so far TOL has more than fulfilled expectations. ptp 2006. £2.1 million. 2007. £3.8 million. 2008. £5.4 million - that's around 17 times forecast 2008 earnings. eps. 2006. 4.5p. 2007. 7.5p. 2008. 10.6p. Finally thanks jakleeds for the steer on TMN. I did hold their shares for a while, and bought just before Investors Chronicle tipped them, but then decided that the quality of their earnings was way inferior to TOL. Maybe I should check out if that is still the case. |
Posted at 05/10/2006 15:03 by kenmitch DiogenesJ.Yes. The shares have risen from 5p since floating, to 17p now. And the Tech index has fallen 75% over the same period. BUT after floating EVT shares soared - can't remember exactly to what price but well into the 30s I think. i.e a ridiculous rise at that stage of EVT's development but typical of what was happening at the peak of the tech bubble around the time EVT floated. So yes, the shares are still well below that farcical peak. Indeed they fell all the way back to less than 2p in early 2003 before rising slowly to the current 17p price. NO. Their investments have not been total disasters.The odd duff inevitably, but 3 absolute gems to make up for that.i.e the Independent article is right. They have a superb track record. The three biggest successes are Toluna - exactly as described in the article.Except that they sold a few Toluna shares to an Institution so they now have £38 million in Tol running for free. Around 90% of Tol shares are in the hands of Institutions and EVT. So there aren't many left for the rest of us, or for any new Institutional investors unless current holders are prepared to sell. So far both with EVT and TOL their big holders seem to want to hang on to their shares. Then KSS. This was a cash rich loss making company which amazingly EVT managed to buy for £1 million. For that they got the £6 million cash pile and the business. Within a year EVT had turned the business round and it is now doing very well indeed. Hard to value it at present as EVT said - probably because its value and profitability could increase considerably with a few more big contracts. Key clients include BP and Safeway US. KSS might get bought out one day, or could even come back to the market. Guessing here. Either way the Company has been transformed and the purchase was the bargain of a lifetime. Now EVT have bought a 7% stake in PIX another cash rich company. They are unlikely to be able to do a deal as good as the KSS deal but who knows? Or they may do what they have done before - sell the stake on at a profit quite quickly.Or they could get lumbered with it. But with PIX shares trading around the level of their cash there is a very good chance that again EVT have bought around the bottom.They did this with a stake they bought in Arc International a year of so ago - sold it on for a good profit within weeks. They also bought a stake in Prelude Trust. Sold half of it for a good profit and still hold the rest. The third gem is Magenta. Early stages but this one could eventaully prove the biggest of the three. So yes, you are missing something and can't have followed EVT until recently. Richard Bernstein is very shrewd and has attracted some of the best Fund Managers in the business into buying EVT shares. e.g Colin McClean and Neil Woodford have bought very large stakes and have held them for years. The value of their stakes in EVT has multiplied. btw Richard Bernstein still holds 41 million shares in EVT (13%)having originally invested £2 million on exactly the same terms as Institutions and everyone else. Amvescap hold 66 million (21%) and Scottish Value 49 million (15%.) Capital Gearing and Advanced UK Trust also hold disclosable amounts. imo EVT shares are cheap.Take out the value of the TOL stake and all their other investments are in for around £16 million. A good way into TOL is to buy EVT shares as any rise in the TOL price should feed through to the lower rated EVT share price. Or do as I've done and hold both. btw EVT's method of donating to worthwhile charities could be a model for other Companies to follow. They have now donated shares worth more than £1 million. Latest to benefit are Shooting Star Children's Hospice (200,000 shares) and The Haven House Children't Hospice (also 200,000 shares.) EVT point out in their report and accounts that if all the top 100 FTSE Companies gave just one tenth of 1% of their shares, a phenomenal £1.3 billion could be effortlessly raised to help charities. What I like about the EVT donations is that they are always to really worthwhile causes and not politically corrent ones. Maybe there is enough here to tempt you and others to find out more? At least enough I hope to convince you that you are missing something, and that far from their investments being total disasters they have mostly been spectacular successes. Recognised by a few quality Institutions and some private investors. But as yet the Company is not that well known it seems. That could soon change. |
Posted at 22/9/2006 11:46 by kenmitch Surprised to see no mention of the results in Investors Chronicle today. It must be an oversight as they have covered TOL well in the past. So I've e-mailed in the hope that they will cover them next week. Point taken that the results needed to be good because of the current PE ratio. But that will fall to a much more modest figure if growth in profits remains rapid, and every sign is that it will. And we've even got a surprise dividend now. Incdidentally it is interesting to see Investors Chronicle tipping Allergy Therapeutics today even thought they concede that the Company is unlikely to be profitable until 2010. Far far riskier imo than investing in the on-line research sector where all three Companies are already profitable and growing at explosive rates. Well TOL is, YOU seem to be too, with RNOW not that far behind. Happy to be corrected by RNOW fans if you know different. |
Posted at 27/7/2006 16:17 by kenmitch bingobarnes. The following is from a detailed post from last December. Post 12. "OK current PE ratios for Toluna seem high, but that's hardly surprising given the huge growth potential. The tax adjusted PE for 2006 is 24 and 17 for 2007. Now these figures do not take into account the forecast QUADRUPLING of profits between 2005 and 2007 thanks to triple digit revenue growth and margin expansion. And that gives a PEG rating of 0.5 for 2006 and 0.4 for 2007 - low for an already successful, profitable and fast growing Company." Newsflow and results since then have been even better than expected, so the prospective PEs and PEGs could well be lower than suggested then. I've been wary of investing in Companies with high PE ratios when the evidence that that PE ratio was going to come down fast was sketchy. But that does not seem to apply to shares in the thriving on line market research sector including TOL. They are providing plenty of evidence of explosive growth, TOL every bit as much (maybe even more) as YOU. Investors Chronicle in a write up on YOU earlier this year said their shares were a sell. Again, as you are (understandably) doing, they based that on the PE ratio for YOU at that time, rather than the great prospects. After that sell advice YOU shares rose even further and Investors Chronicle then changed their sell advice to fairly priced acknowledging the excellent YOU progress when they announced their results. Since when YOU shares have continued to rise, including a one day rise of 37p a few days ago. So best to ignore the current PE ratios and focus on superb prospects for the next couple of years imo. btw from memory the last Investors Chroncicle comment on TOL was "good value." As you probably realise there is very strong Institutional support for TOL with - again from memory -around 90% of the shares held by Institutions or Directors. So some have cottoned on to the huge growth expected - and being shown already - in this sector, and I,m confident that there is more to come and that TOL shares are well worth holding. Should there be any temporary weakness on a general market markdown then well worth adding to holdings too as I'm confident that the shares have a good bit further to go yet. Of course any significant rise in the TOL share price should also lead to a rising EVT share price too. |
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