Sqn Asset Finance Income Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 23/12/2019 15:00

When I say “all time”, I think I mean a year or so!! Or at least in the era of depressed Ord price.

I am buying Cs, selling Ords.

[a0002577] 23/12/2019 12:30

Hi Chucko - you say "the spread between the Ords and the Cs is easily at its all time tights now."

If you mean the difference between the Share Prices - then that is simply not true. There have been many times since 2017 when the C shares traded at less then the ORDs and they have often swapped places since then. Indeed the "C"s opened at just under 103 when the ORDs were 111+

I only bought into the ORDs when they were about 12 pence less than the 'C's! Richly rewarded since.

When you say "Time to play! I started on Friday" do you mean you are buying ORDs or 'C' shares

[chucko1] 21/12/2019 14:04

@Spectoacc, the spread between the Ords and the Cs is easily at its all time tights now.

Time to play! I started on Friday. The Boris-induced market effervescence is kicking up all sorts of interesting things.

[a0002577] 18/12/2019 15:01

What is interesting at the moment - apart from the gentle decline in both "C" and the ORD share prices is the fact that the gap between the two has narrowed from a peak of about 12 pence to just a little over 2 pence. It is the ORD shares that hold the troublesome Sunniva, so maybe someone has knowledge of an impending (good) resolution of that problem.

[petewy] 18/12/2019 09:48

Thanks Specto. Will study. I'm in AEWL too,also TRY SLI RGL RLE LMP among others.
Also NRZ (USA) (11% div)

[spectoacc] 18/12/2019 09:37

Same to you @speedsgh :)

116.5p bid for Hansteen just now may give your REITs an extra boost, Blackstone paying well over NAV.

[speedsgh] 18/12/2019 09:33

Thanks again Specto. Will take a look at these when I have the time. I can probably discount AEWL already seeing as I am more than fully loaded with REITs. Best wishes to you & yours for the festive season.

[spectoacc] 18/12/2019 07:27

@speedsgh - I can't give tips and down on 3 of these but my 5 largest holdings atm are ALM, AEWL, SSIF, TORO & OCI. Both ALM & AEWL appear to have sellers so should be picked up cheap; SSIF is run by SQN and is very likely to wind up for a small gain - MMs have a lot of stock atm; TORO is a beautiful yielder but very esoteric; OCI is the best PE IT on the market IMO & on breakout.

Edit to add offer prices to enable future reflection!
ALM - 46.5p (big "dividend" due early next year, are in slow wind-down)
AEWL - 72p (Don't pay full offer for AEWL)
SSIF- 86.5p (Ditto)
TORO - 79c (Euro)
OCI - 262p (All-time highs but miles below rapidly rising NAV).

[speedsgh] 17/12/2019 23:53

Thanks Specto. Struggling to find time for research at the mo so assistance is much appreciated.

[spectoacc] 17/12/2019 15:55

@speedsgh - that would be a long tale!

Suniva was the culprit for why SQN won't trade at a premium again. They've still not properly written down the NAV, hoping for recovery, but SQN now pays an uncovered divi (SQNX is covered).

That was ages ago; near-term, there was allegedly a seller who beat it right down, hence the Oct/Nov buying opportunity.

[speedsgh] 17/12/2019 15:45

Sorry, playing catch up here. Why did the bottom fall out of the share price recently? Was it purely pre-election jitters? Wasn't so long ago I think this used to trade close to NAV. Now trading at double-digit discount even after recent share price increase. Why the substantial discount?

[spectoacc] 16/12/2019 14:57

Refusing to feel smug about having sold SQN & SQNX higher, ahead of my predicted Corbyn minority govnt, when I was so wrong and most of the rest I sold are now higher :)

The "bottom" came out in force for Boris - comfortably won the C2DE vote.

[a0002577] 12/12/2019 09:27

Sweet chilli sauce is more warming :)

[spectoacc] 11/12/2019 15:12

Polls are like weather forecasting - occasionally accurate but more often not!

However, I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

My betting money is on "hung Parliament, Labour minority govnt" at 8/1. Seems decent odds to me.

The top and bottom are likely voting Tory - Tories now the party of the working class (or C2DE) thanks to Brexit - but bloody hell, almost the entire middle is now Marxist. Doesn't bode well for if Brexit doesn't work out.

Getting repeatedly spammed by Tory bots too - starting to sympathise with Labour voters.

[chucko1] 11/12/2019 13:24

@Spectoacc, just for you! ...

Probability of conservative majority given last night’s poll and the stated margin of error/confidence is close to 84%. I have been putting bets on at a price of only 69% (Betfair).

As well, prob of conservatives getting over 317.5 seats (so would have to do new deal with DUP) is implied by the poll at 96%, whereas I was able to trade at only 81%.

Underlying assumption is that their means are normally distributed, and without fat tails. In other words, low correlation, and this is effectively the bet.

It’s akin to saying that the Labour “red wall” will either remain intact or get smashed - as opposed to losing a few bricks, which is ideal for the Tories.

As an aside, misunderstanding these statistics is what did for sub-prime, Lehman et al.

[spectoacc] 11/12/2019 10:13

Sold out ahead of GE, pained me to do so but might well be back in after.

Hung Parliament IMO.

[wrighna1] 04/12/2019 14:02

RNS showing SQN have starting repurchasing shares over last three days. Good move.

[a0002577] 28/11/2019 11:28

Is the differential recovery due to the ORDs closing the gap on the "C" shares? I think there is still the Suniva problem to resolve and then it can all move forward - particularly once the two classes merge.

[wrighna1] 27/11/2019 21:32

Nice to see it move into post 80p territory which it struggled with last week. Seeing further progress from this point back to a note normalised position

[chucko1] 27/11/2019 15:27

It pays to be patient with these asset backed securities. Certain market participants end up doing daft things which one can make use of. I’m sorry it happened to be the Church on this occasion, but they can encourage their flock to dig a little deeper this Sunday.

[spectoacc] 27/11/2019 15:25

SQN certainly recovered well. SQNX been a bit slower.

[lord gnome] 27/11/2019 15:19

Share price continues to recover. Looks like the weakness was all down to some clumsy selling by the Church.

[wrighna1] 08/11/2019 18:42

A few big trades going through this afternoon. Price has progressed pretty well over the week. Hopefully more positive momentum to come next week.

[spectoacc] 05/11/2019 20:16

@chucko1 - sorry, meant me, for the quick profit, if it keeps going up like this!