Signet Gbl GBP Share Discussion Threads

[deepvalueinvestor] 04/2/2013 19:12

Can't eat value, it is a bit complicated. The managers have formerly made redemptions for all investments. Part of the problem is that there was property backing some of the fixed interest investments that we now have received by default and this bit has unknown liquidity although that doesn't mean that it won't be sold in 2013. Some investments were specifically designed to redeem over the next year as it was originally supposed to wind up in 2013 but shareholders voted to start the process in 2012. This was because of the wide discount.

Shareholders received one payment last year and 33p cash, as a minimum, expected back by the autumn.

I actually have a conference call lined up so will be able to provide further clarity this week.

[canteatvalue] 04/2/2013 17:43

I have a bit of a novice question here but hopefully others who know this situation better might help explain.

From what it looks like all the assets the company now has are shares in other funds rather than specific assets themselves. That being the case, surely these funds should have existing redemption facilities they are obliged to adhere to? I suppose if the shares they own in the funds represent a large proportion of the fund's AUM then it would take time to liquidate the assets, but if they are only a small fraction as is usually the case with funds, then surely getting in and out of the fund should be relatively easy? I'm not sure I understand precisely what the difficulty is in winding up the fund.

[deepvalueinvestor] 02/2/2013 19:02

But why would us$ holders be selling when the recent weakness in sterling is not yet reflected in the share price? Indeed they have already taken the pain by holding something with us$ assets that is listed in the uk!

In passing, I am assuming liquidated assets are held in sterling so the currency issue becomes slowly less relevant - this would the ideal scenario for uk holders if we can lock in sales when we are at $1.57 exchange rate.

However, the quality and liquidity of the tail is indeed the concern. I have a conference call with new management soon and will get a better idea now that they have had a chance to kick the tyres. I would want them to mark down the nav if they really don't think it is appropriate.

I remain cautious about markets so I am still comfortable paying 23p for the 60.5p-63p of assets with " unknown " liquidity.

[p1nkfish] 02/2/2013 15:38

tb hit nail on head.

[deepvalueinvestor] 02/2/2013 08:47

We very rarely talk about the bull scenario for sigg but the sterling dollar is sub $1.57 so nav will be at 97p+ depending on underlying performance. Nav surprised on the upside in December despite currency moving against us so is it really in the realms of possibility to see nav at 100p+ over the next few months?

What is interesting in this scenario is that if the nav goes up 5%, then the share price would need to go up, say 7% to keep the discount the same. However, my suspicion is that when investors see the nav rising and realise that this includes 15% cash and rising, we may eventually get the rerating we have all been waiting for. If not, 33p+ cash in investors pockets by the autumn should focus minds.

[deepvalueinvestor] 31/1/2013 22:24

Tiltonboy, buying and moving upwards through 15%. Now 15.083%

Spec7 is annoyed that I am not currently posting on the viy board.

[tiltonboy] 31/1/2013 20:16

Spec7,

What a ridiculous thing to say.

[spec7] 31/1/2013 19:08

DVI credibility rating....0

[tiltonboy] 31/1/2013 18:48

Possibly just a ridiculously late announcement rather than a sale of stock.

[deepvalueinvestor] 31/1/2013 18:20

Remember that we all sold shares in the tender so the cake is smaller. This figure only relates to discretionary holdings. As I am sure Brewin Dolphin non discretionary clients also hold shares, the true allocation is higher than even 15%.

[langbarb] 31/1/2013 18:11

tiltonboy I am confused by the statement. The number of voting rights is down from 14.2m to 11.6m but the % seems to be up because the RNS mentions that the threshold crossed is 15% and the new % of voting rights is now 15.08%?

[tiltonboy] 31/1/2013 18:00

Looks like the overhang gets bigger with notification that Brewin Dolphin have been selling!

[spec7] 31/1/2013 00:06

What about the VIY conference call DVI ?

[deepvalueinvestor] 30/1/2013 19:05

Not me actually this time. Shock horror, more than 1 buyer!

[tiltonboy] 30/1/2013 13:48

looks like dvi is back in the market for more, with a cheeky 56 bid for 150K.

[badtime] 30/1/2013 13:37

Well unless u want out now its not a problem and time to add more if you feel comfortable ..b interesting to c how DVI gets on with his meet

[skyship] 30/1/2013 09:51

Certainly a trading war going on here then.

I must say, if WEISS are reducing then this could well trade sideways for quite some time....so prolonged base-building beckons until WEISS change their minds or are taken out.

[tiltonboy] 30/1/2013 09:31

200k on offer at 56.5p on the board again.

[deepvalueinvestor] 29/1/2013 18:21

Market makers now bidding 56p for 250k as investors look at the effects of currency on Sigg's assets. Happy days.

[deepvalueinvestor] 28/1/2013 19:10

Ha skyShip, it would give the game away but fair so say that it wouldn't be the 3% getting triggered!

[skyship] 28/1/2013 18:09

DVI - remember to declare your 3% when you go through 2.31m!!!!!!!!!

[deepvalueinvestor] 28/1/2013 18:04

I remain more bullish tiltonboy as I now estimate nav at 96.6p a share with us$ now at $1.57 so a 3.32% currency boost since 31 December. I paid 56.5p for another 100k plus 25k in closing auction at 56p.

[tiltonboy] 28/1/2013 16:29

I fear your downgrade of the 70% balance may not be enough. I would take an average of 70p for my holding.

[skyship] 28/1/2013 16:20

Obviously far too soon to be postulating possible outcomes here; but the 25th February EGM perhaps presents an opportunity for the new management to reassess the portfolio and the liquidation outcomes.

Surely bound to be value downgrades and timescale slippage; but perhaps not too much at the front end.

As an estimate for my own share price assessment, I assume:

# 30% front end downgraded by 5% from 28.0p to 26.6p
# 70% balance downgraded by 10% from 65.5p to 58.9p
TOTAL NAV downgraded 8.6% from 93.5p to 85.5p

Assumption - 30% liquidation at end August - CASH = £19.8m

1st Tender Sept'13 - 1 for 4 @ 85p costing £16.4m

A buyer of 10,000 @ 56p, retires 2500 @ 85p; so is left with 7500 @ £3475. ie a carrying cost of 46.3p/share versus the "Tail" of 70% valued @ 85.5p/share.

It then becomes a case of How Long & How Much?

Is my initial downgrade too severe?