Sierra Rutile Share Discussion Threads

[scrutable] 10/8/2013 18:26

phoenix1234 9 Jul'13 - 998
Great link to a very encouraging VSA report with BUY recommendation and 85p target. Thanks. Surprising no one else has commented.

I went last year to the AGM. Only 3 PIs attended, but it was worth while.
Did anyone go this yea?. There must have been a chairman's comment on current rutile prices?

[scrutable] 10/8/2013 17:46

According to today's FT China consumes 50% of global metals,
and falling annual GDP growth has rebounded YonY from 9.0% to 9.7%.
There were hugely increased imports of copper, nickel etc though stocks are rising.

This implies to me that SRX is experiencing an increase in demand and firmer rutile prices.

Can anyone comment from a position of expert knowledge?

The company's shares trade at the moment on a ridiculously low cash/capitalisation ratio

[madmonkflin] 07/8/2013 13:51

Naff all happening with share price at the moment, maybe they need to speed up their decision on paying a dividend

[granitetim] 06/8/2013 07:25

++++++++++++++++++++++ Great News+++++++++++++++++++++++

[nonic] 29/7/2013 14:34

eddie catflap 26 Jun'13 - 14:56 - 988 of 1016 0 0

Just having a very quick look at June presentation.

2 things stood out. Looks like 2013 production will possibly average out about 110m tons. The presentation also quotes broker average estimates of $1500 per ton selling price over 2013-2015.

Leaving costs per ton as they are (efficiency savings offsetting pay/cost increases) I'm getting a very similar out turn as this year. (About 11p eps)

Any increase will therefore be dependent on rutile pricing and, more within their own control, an upside surprise to production (providing they can sell any increase and the inventory).

Given a similar result, I would like to see a big increase in positive cashflow to fund either a distribution or the proposed expansion.

gla

NONIC 27 Jun'13 - 13:50 - 989 of 1016 0 0 edit

eddie


"Just having a very quick look at June presentation.

2 things stood out. Looks like 2013 production will possibly average out about 110m tons."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

why didnt this stand out??

"2013 target production of 125,000 tonnes of rutile"

its the target 2013 output figure shown in the june 13th presentation you have looked at.

Page 13 Graph seems to show you are being ultra conservative on costs as there is a downtrend in the cost/tonne from c$600 for 2013 to c$500 next year to c$400-450 in 2015

using the same price for 3 years is, shall we say, conservative of the anal-ysts.

especially when producers have already, apparently, been trying to increase prices already.


EDIT:
still on page 13. If the output then in 2015, as is forecast, is c.208,000 tonnes at a cost of c.$450/tonne-that is a cost of about $90 million compared to revenue as per the graph of $330 million.

ie Profit (ebitda) of $240 million

Or am I reading it wrong?


NONIC 27 Jun'13 - 14:19 - 990 of 1016 0 0 edit

Again this is from page 13:-


Dramatic growth in free cash flow generation in the near-term

– –
Revenue growth driven by successful execution of development projects
Declining operating costs driven by:
– A continual focus on cost efficiency
– Realisation of economies of scale through the leveraging of a fixed- cost base across increasing production volumes.

That is not in line with your guesstimate


How many shares are there? c 530 million? 11p/share.

£55 million? surely not

eddie catflap 27 Jun'13 - 16:03 - 991 of 1016 0 0

NONIC,

I'll get back to you on the other factors when I have more time than I did with "my very quick look."

However, the Mineral Sands info I've just been reading indicates that prices will indeed be flat to falling over the next few years. The reports are showing the zircon market is strengthening but any rutile recovery will not now begin until Q4 at the earliest.

I'm therefore guessing that the expansion plans will be delayed due to the weak-ish market so no big jump in output and no subsequent economies of greater scale.

Who knows however? This future-predicting is difficult. We'll know a bit more at the next update (early July?)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


You seem to be a very busy chap Eddy That was a month ago:-


I'll get back to you on the other factors when I have more time than I did with "my very quick look."



Aren't you prepared to admit maybe you got it a touch wrong?

Or was there another agenda?

[nonic] 27/7/2013 02:13

beeezzz 26 Jul'13 - 22:43 - 1014 of 1015 0 0

Man wake up, it's AIM where anything goes,

Exactly my point=where anything goes!

My losses are about 12p/share so dont lose any sleep over those.

Sorry got to pay another visit to the loo to throw up-the city ugh

[lupaishi] 26/7/2013 23:25

BRAZIL INFO
IBOV hxxp://lupamercantil.blogspot.com.br/

[beeezzz] 26/7/2013 22:43

Man wake up, it's AIM where anything goes, and luckily the Mad Hatter at No 11 will soon allow you to put these in your ISA, don't forget you won't be able too offset your losses which may be huge. Had these in our share club but ditched them last month with all our mining stocks, bit late, should have sold as soon as China warned of a slow down.

[nurdin] 25/7/2013 10:11

I wonder how the rutile market is faring now...couldn't find much on google.I do know however that Iluka have reported falling sales and pricing pressures but then they are mainly China focused where the demand has softened a lot. US and the Europe should be doing well I reckon but its only a guess...

[corbine] 24/7/2013 14:13

the mill tx was a transaction from 24 may -for some reason its only just been posted? aim regs 3 working days. wonder what went wrong with that?

[nonic] 24/7/2013 10:43

This share price strikes me like the Fellah from York (in reverse)........

with all his men!

but then it is the silly season.

[arphillips] 22/7/2013 09:07

A very large late transaction of 1 million shares at £0.55 today! Not a flicker of other activity though.

[bossman1978] 19/7/2013 14:25

Nice to see blue today. Wonder what's coming or is it just market sentiment?

[nurdin] 19/7/2013 13:56

Looking good :o)

[bossman1978] 19/7/2013 11:13

Thanks. I will read through the rns

[corbine] 19/7/2013 08:39

bossman -they posted it in recent rns- due to cash pot-after expenses-capital expenditure etc and after gangama is realised ;-) sometime in the not tooooooo distant future ;-)

[bossman1978] 18/7/2013 13:35

I haven't looked at this for a while. What is the news about a special divi?

[nurdin] 17/7/2013 11:11

ouch..this is starting to hurt now.

[corbine] 17/7/2013 09:27

that bribe list- nothing new. even morocco is 49%- suppose they include bribing police - well- when you drive down through sub sahara- you HAVE to pay a bribe to proceed past checkpoints and also HAVE to pay bribes to customs just to go through borders. its not like you offered to bribe someone- when a guys got a gun regardless of wether hes wearing a uniform or not and asks for money -best you give it -principles of right and wrong cost a lot more ive been paying bribes for years to bent coppers/customs etc in africa- do the figures get onto the listings? or can they show its businesses purposely bribing government departments? how exactly can they prove this information? re businesses, as it would have been covert not overt and most of the bribery matters in any areas of this ilk would stay secret??. some of the bribing is a way of life-its the norm in some places in africa ;-))

[corbine] 17/7/2013 09:15

i can only think its global issue re pricing- but still cant work it through- srx is pushing to have possibly the lowest rutile cost per tonne (average) anywhere in the world? even the chinese toxic.... ah hem, plants cant compete. srx- worlds largest NATURAL rutile deposit in da world.
dupont and others in sector- how are they fairing on rutile pricing? each news snippet from srx says rutile price is spongey yet will pick up shortly-then next says same and it keeps repeating-surely as even with weaker rutile prices srx is hugely profitable and with expansion plans all coming to fruition and production tonnages increasing the cash pile will grow internally - issue the special dividend thats coming down the line and we should get volumes and liquidity with the trades in this platform-aim-it will be a sit up and take notice moment? how many aim miners pay a realistic dividend?
surely it wouldnt go un-noticed if srx made it a regular thing-(not just a special divi) to announce yearly divis from profits-even after profits used for other going concerns.

[william russell flint] 09/7/2013 17:54

Sierra Leone top corruption hotspot says the beeb

[phoenix1234] 09/7/2013 09:09

Kenmare vs Sierra Rutile according to broker VSA