Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 18/9/2020 17:48

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 43.25 -0.12%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.20 -0.27%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.61 +2.28%
WT I41.1 USD +0.58%

FTSE 100
6,007.05 -0.71%
Dow Jones
27,888.44 -0.05%
CAC 40
4,978.18 -1.22%
SBF 120
3,939.83 -1.21%
Euro STOXX 50
3,283.69 -1.12%
DAX
13,116.25 -0.70%
Ftse Mib
19,572.17 -0.85%



Eni
7.388 -2.71%


Total
31.11 -1.35%


Engie
11.595 -1.86%

Orange
9.516 -1.49%


Bp
245.75 -2.54%

Vodafone
107.66 +0.30%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,034.6 -1.69%


Royal Dutch Shell B
990.2 -2.10%


Tullow Oil (TLW)
16.92: -1.505 (-8.17%)

[waldron] 18/9/2020 15:42

HURRICANE SEASON

[waldron] 18/9/2020 15:42

Royal Dutch Shell said Friday it was halting some of its offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico as another storm churns in the area, heading north toward a cluster of production platforms.

"Shell is monitoring Tropical Depression #22 for potential impacts to our assets and operations in the Gulf of Mexico," the company said. "As a precautionary measure, Shell is evacuating non-essential personnel from Perdido in the western Gulf of Mexico and has shut in production. All rigs are monitoring the weather and securing operations."

The move comes just days after Hurricane Sally swept through the Gulf, forcing Shell and other companies to partially halt production and temporarily evacuate workers for safety. In some cases, oil workers who evacuated due to Sally but have since returned to their offshore job sites may have to turn around and evacuate again.

"Production at Appomattox is ramping back up and is expected to resume operations as normal," Shell said earlier Thursday night. "All other platforms that had curtailed production have resumed normal production."

Tropical Depression #22 is likely to become a named tropical storm and possibly a hurricane over the next few days as it continues to move slowly over the western Gulf, the National Hurricane Center said Friday

Some 31% of total offshore oil production in the Gulf, or about 568,000 barrels a day, remains offline due to storms, the U.S. government's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said Thursday. The U.S. produces a total of about 11 million barrels a day of crude oil.



Write to Dan Molinski at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 18, 2020 10:21 ET (14:21 GMT)

[la forge] 18/9/2020 12:20

WOULD,COULD,WILL SHELL DO THE SAME AND COMBINE IN UK

[waldron] 18/9/2020 09:53

i can accept that the share price might fall into the 875 to 975p Box depending on the news flow


so i am pencilling in 930p and what a great entry share price for the long term a la norm

[grupo guitarlumber] 18/9/2020 09:25

Conclusion

It has been rather surprising that investors are getting another opportunity to acquire Royal Dutch Shell shares at under $30, especially since the era of negative oil prices sits in the rear-view mirror. Whilst the road ahead may not be perfectly smooth, following this analysis and the share price sliding down lower in the last month, I believe that upgrading my rating from Bullish to Very Bullish is appropriate.

Notes: Unless specified otherwise, all figures in this article were taken from Royal Dutch Shell’s Second Quarter 2020, Fourth Quarter 2019 and Fourth Quarter 2017 report, all calculated figures were performed by the author.

[grupo guitarlumber] 17/9/2020 10:08

OPEC and non-OPEC allies to review oil production cuts after dire demand warnings
Published Thu, Sep 17 20203:35 AM EDTUpdated 39 Min Ago
Sam Meredith
@smeredith19
Key Points

OPEC and non-OPEC allies, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, will convene for an online meeting to review the market and discuss compliance with deep production cuts.
Analysts do not anticipate OPEC+ to announce further output cuts on Thursday, though the issue of compliance is likely to resurface amid signs some exporters may have reneged on their commitments.
The meeting comes shortly after OPEC and the IEA, two prominent forecasters, trimmed their 2020 outlook for oil demand.

[sarkasm] 14/9/2020 15:09

BP Says Oil Demand Growth Era Over
by Bloomberg
|
Rakteem Katakey
|
Monday, September 14, 2020

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BP Says Oil Demand Growth Era Over
BP says the relentless growth of oil demand is over.

(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor to call the end of an era many thought would last another decade or more.

Oil consumption may never return to levels seen before the coronavirus crisis took hold, BP said in a report on Monday. Even its most bullish scenario sees demand no better than “broadly flat” for the next two decades as the energy transition shifts the world away from fossil fuels.

BP is making a profound break from orthodoxy. From the bosses of corporate energy giants to ministers from OPEC states, senior figures from the industry have insisted that oil consumption will see decades of growth. Time and again, they have described it as the only commodity that can satisfy the demands of an increasing global population and expanding middle class.

The U.K. giant is describing a different future, where oil’s supremacy is challenged, and ultimately fades. That explains why BP has taken the boldest steps so far among peers to align its business with the goals of the Paris climate accord. Just six months after taking the top job, Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney said in August he’d shrink oil and gas output by 40% over the next decade and spend as much as $5 billion a year building one of the world’s largest renewable-power businesses.

That’s because he suspects oil use may already have peaked as a result of the pandemic, stricter government policies and changes in consumer behavior. BP’s energy outlook shows consumption slumping 50% by 2050 in one scenario, and by almost 80% in another. In a “business-as-usual” situation, demand would recover but then flatline near 100 million barrels a day for the next 20 years.

BP isn’t the only big oil company adapting its business to the energy transition. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SE and others in Europe have announced similar pivots toward cleaner operations as customers, governments and investors increasingly call for change.
Three Possible Futures

BP’s report comes ahead of three days of online briefings starting Monday on its clean-energy and climate strategy. The study considers three scenarios, which aren’t predictions but nevertheless cover a wide range of possible outcomes over the next 30 years and form the basis of the new strategy Looney announced in August.

The “Rapid” approach sees new policy measures leading to a significant increase in carbon prices. The “Net Zero” course reinforces Rapid with big shifts in societal behavior, while the “Business-as-usual” projection assumes that government policies, technology and social preferences continue to evolve as they have in the recent past.

In the first two scenarios, oil demand falls as a result of the coronavirus, the report shows. “It subsequently recovers but never back to pre-Covid levels,” according to Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist. “It brings forward the point at which oil demand peaks to 2019.”

That contrasts with what many others are forecasting. Russell Hardy, chief executive officer of trading giant Vitol Group, said on Monday that oil demand is poised for 10 years of growth before a steady decline. He predicts consumption will return to pre-virus levels by the end of next year.

BP’s outlook last year contained a scenario called “More energy,” which had oil demand growing steadily to about 130 million barrels a day in 2040. There’s no such scenario this time.

“Demand for oil falls over the next 30 years,” BP said in the report. “The scale and pace of this decline is driven by the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation.̶1;
Covid Impact

The pandemic shattered oil consumption this year as countries locked down to prevent infections from spreading. While demand has since improved, and crude prices with it, the public health crisis is still raging in many parts of the world and the outlook remains uncertain in the absence of a vaccine.

The impact, including lasting behavioral changes like increased working from home, will affect economic activity and prosperity in the developing world, and ultimately demand for liquid fuels, according to BP. That means it won’t be able to offset already falling consumption in developed countries.

Demand for liquid fuels is seen falling to less than 55 million barrels a day by 2050 in BP’s Rapid scenario, and to around 30 million a day in Net Zero. The drop is mostly in developed economies and in China. In India, other parts of Asia and Africa, demand remains broadly flat in the first scenario but slips below 2018 levels from the mid-2030s in the second.

Other points in the energy outlook:

The Rapid scenario has carbon emissions from energy use falling by around 70% by 2050, while they drop by more than 95% in Net Zero. Business-as-usual sees them peaking in the mid-2020s.
Demand for all primary energy -- the raw materials from which energy is derived -- increases by about 10% in Rapid and Net Zero in the period, and by around 25% in the third scenario.
In Rapid, non-fossil fuels account for the majority of global energy from the early 2040s.
Growth in China’s energy demand slows sharply relative to past trends, reaching a peak in the early 2030s in all three scenarios.
Renewable energy -- excluding hydro -- increases more than 10-fold in both Rapid and Net Zero, with its share in primary energy rising from 5% in 2018 to more than 40% by 2050 in Rapid and almost 60% in Net Zero.
Natural gas consumption is seen broadly unchanged to 2050 in Rapid and around 35% higher in business-as-usual. Demand falls by about 40% by 2050 in Net Zero.

[the grumpy old men] 14/9/2020 13:50

OPEC cuts 2020 oil demand forecast, trims 2021 outlook on pandemic fallout
Published Mon, Sep 14 20207:40 AM EDT
Sam Meredith
@smeredith19

Key Points

OPEC has downwardly revised its outlook for global oil demand to an average of 90.2 million barrels per day in 2020.

The report comes as energy market participants become increasingly concerned about a faltering economic recovery and stumbling fuel demand in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Looking ahead, OPEC said the negative impact on oil demand in Asia was expected to persist through the first six months of 2021.

[waldron] 14/9/2020 09:23

SHELL A : Credit Suisse maintains a Buy rating



0
09/14/2020 | 08:03am BST

Analyst Thomas Adolff from Credit Suisse research considers the stock attractive and recommends it with a Buy rating.

The target price is reduced from GBX 1600 to GBX 1525.

[adrian j boris] 13/9/2020 06:55

HURRICANE SEASON






TROPICAL STORM SALLY

[adrian j boris] 13/9/2020 06:53

Gulf of Mexico oil platforms evacuated as tropical storm brews
Sep. 12, 2020 9:16 PM ET|About: Chevron Corporation (CVX)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Gulf of Mexico oil producers are evacuating offshore facilities today ahead of the anticipated arrival of tropical storm Sally, which is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) says it has started evacuating all staff from its Blind Faith and Petronius platforms and initiated shut-in procedures, while production at its other offshore platforms was unaffected.

Murphy Oil (NYSE:MUR) says it is preparing to evacuate non-essential personnel from its most easterly facilities and monitoring the storm for any effect on other properties.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), BHP, BP and Hess (NYSE:HES) say they are monitoring the storm and would take action if needed.

At least 1.3M bbl/day of oil production was shut last month as Hurricane Laura ripped through the Gulf of Mexico and the southwest Louisiana coast.

[the chairman elect] 11/9/2020 18:06

Yet another offer for DELT [working very closely with RDSB / RDSA]

Broker note from 4th September 2020 on DELT gives a risked valuation of 13.7p

[waldron] 11/9/2020 17:40

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 40.09 +0.80%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.11 +1.81%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.74 -1.97%
WTI 37.51 USD +0.70%

FTSE 100
6,032.09 +0.48%
Dow Jones
27,707.65 +0.63%
CAC 40
5,034.14 +0.20%
SBF 120
3,980.6 +0.13%
Euro STOXX 50
3,315.81 +0.00%
DAX
13,202.84 -0.05%
Ftse Mib
19,830.6 +0.05%



Eni
7.561 -0.35%



Total
32.515 -0.67%



Engie
11.775 -0.42%

Orange
9.496 -0.13%


Bp
262.05 -0.08%

Vodafone
110.22 +0.73%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,083.4 -0.73%



Royal Dutch Shell B
1,032 -0.94%

Tullow Oil (TLW)
16.09 -0.60 (-3.59%)

[waldron] 09/9/2020 16:05

Nigeria seeks $1.1B advance from Eni, Shell in oilfield corruption case
Sep. 9, 2020 10:58 AM ET|About: Eni S.p.A. (E)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

Nigeria's government asks a Milan court to order Eni (NYSE:E) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) to pay nearly $1.1B as an immediate advance payment for damages related to alleged corruption linked to the companies' 2011 purchase of the OPL 245 offshore oilfield.

A lawyer for the Nigerian government calls for the advance payment ahead of a broader damages package to be set by the court at a later date.

Prosecutors allege ~$1.1B of the $1.3B purchase price was siphoned off to politicians and middlemen, half of it to former Nigerian oil minister Dan Etete.

Etete, Eni, Shell and the managers accused in the Milan court case, including Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi, all deny any wrongdoing.

In a recent post on Seeking Alpha, Daniel Thurecht maintained a bullish rating based on "the prospects of a higher share price when operating conditions recover and not because they are a desirable dividend investment."

[misca2] 09/9/2020 06:32

Trump's Drilling Ban Bombshell Rocks Oil Industry
By Julianne Geiger - Sep 08, 2020, 5:00 PM CDT
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U.S. President Donald Trump shocked the oil industry today with a surprise announcement that he would extend the existing moratorium on oil drilling on parts of Florida’s, South Carolina’s, and Georgia’s coast, according to Politico.

The announcement was a complete surprise, according to Politico, even to congressional aides, lobbyists, and industry officials who have been working on this very issue.

The announcement is a complete shift from the White House’s previous stance, which sought to open up those areas to oil drilling, although most had expected the President to wait until after the election.

President Trump had declared his intention to open up those areas to drilling years ago, but Florida’s Governor Rick Scott at the time—a Republican—was a staunch opponent of the plan, citing his state’s strong tourism industry.

Rick Scott now serves as a Senator. Florida Senator Marco Rubio, also a Republican, is a fierce opponent to opening up these areas to oil drilling as well.

Back in 2018, Florida voters weren’t so sure how they felt about a ban on offshore oil drilling; 54% of voters were in favor of a ban, while 42% were against.

Florida’s 29 electoral votes will be hard fought for on the campaign trail this year as a critical swing state, and it appears that the White House views the battleground state as anti-coastal drilling.


According to a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) analysis of API polling data, however, the oil industry has strong support in key battleground states, with 93 percent of voters in critical states seeing it as important for the U.S. to produce enough energy to keep it from relying on foreign oil, while 92% believe that keeping oil and gasoline prices affordable is important. 82% of voters recognize the value that oil and gas have on their lives, and 73% believe that nat gas and oil will still be a significant part of America’s energy needs in 2040. What’s more, 63% believe that the nat gas and oil industries will be critical for helping the economy recover from the current pandemic.

For Florida specifically, nearly two-thirds of Florida voters—including a majority of Democrats, say they would be “more likely to vote for a candidate who supports access to oil and gas produced in the U.S.”

82% of Florida voters support continued investments in the oil industry, while 84% want to minimize harm to the environment.

The move may be just the ticket for the President, lying somewhere between protecting the treasured coast while still being seen as supportive of the overall industry.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

[sarkasm] 06/9/2020 10:11

Oil industry betting future on ‘shaky plastics’ as world battles waste, says climate think tank

Features & AnalysisOil & GasRefinery

By James Murray 04 Sep 2020

The Carbon Tracker Initiative said the fossil fuel industry is taking this action as the world “starts to tackle plastic waste” and governments “act to hit climate targets”
Oil industry plastics waste

The report claims the oil industry's action risks up to $400bn worth of stranded petrochemical investments, increasing the likelihood of peak oil demand (Credit: Needpix.com)

The oil industry is pinning its hopes on strong plastics demand growth that “will not materialise”, according to a new report.

Analysis by the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a London-based climate change think tank, said the fossil fuel industry is taking this action as the world “starts to tackle plastic waste” and governments “act to hit climate targets”.

It claims this risks up to $400bn worth of stranded petrochemical investments, increasing the likelihood of peak oil demand.

The central scenarios for UK oil major BP and the International Energy Agency imply that plastics demand will be the “largest driver of oil demand growth”, making up 95% and 45% of growth to 2040 respectively, as oil demand is “challenged in its core area of transport”, according to the report.

Carbon Tracker energy strategist and lead author of the report, Kingsmill Bond, said: “If you remove the plastic pillar holding up the future of the oil industry, the whole narrative of rising oil demand collapses.”


Virgin plastic demand growth could plummet from 4% a year to under 1%

Carbon Tracker’s analysis found that “mounting pressure to curtail the use of plastics” – now a worldwide public concern – could slash virgin plastic demand growth from 4% a year to under 1%, with demand peaking in 2027.

It said the implication for Big Oil is that the industry will “lose its primary growth driver”, making it “more likely” oil demand peaked as early as 2019.
Oil industry plastics waste
The range of plastic externalities per tonne in US dollars (Credit: Carbon Tracker Initiative)

The petrochemical industry is already facing record-low plastic feedstock prices as a result of massive overcapacity.

But, despite that, it plans to expand supply for virgin plastics use by a quarter at a cost of at least $400bn in the next five years, which Carbon Tracker believes is risking “huge losses for investors”.

The think tank claims the plastics industry is a “bloated behemoth, ripe for disruption”.

It added: “Plastics imposes an externality cost on society of at least $1,000 per tonne, or $350 billion a year, from emitting carbon dioxide, associated health costs from noxious gases, collection costs and the alarming growth in ocean pollution.

“And yet, it receives more in subsidy than it pays in taxation, and until recently there have been very few constraints on how you can use plastics.

“Meanwhile, 36% of plastic is used only once, 40% ends up polluting the environment and less than 10% is actually recycled.”


Policymakers in Europe and China taking steps to ‘clamp down on plastics waste’

SYSTEMIQ, a systems change company that worked on the report with Carbon Tracker, said technological innovations are already available to enable a “massive reduction” in plastic usage at “lower cost than business as usual”.

The solutions it notes include reuse, with better design and regulation of product, substitutions such as paper, and a large increase in recycling.

The report highlights how policymakers in Europe and China are already taking steps to “clamp down on plastics waste” and said they have a wide range of tools they can use, from regulation and bans to taxes, targets and recycling infrastructure.

“The EU, for example, in July 2020 proposed an €800/t ($944) tax on unrecycled waste plastic, while China has similar regulatory aspirations and has started to ban certain types of plastic,” it added.

“In China, the first major flag came in 2018 when the country largely closed down its industry for importing and processing plastic waste – the world’s largest – forcing exporters to solve the waste issue at home.”


A ‘stagnation217; in plastic demand in developed markets

The report notes that there has been a “stagnation in demand” in developed markets and a “leapfrog̶1; in emerging markets.

“As has been seen in other areas of the energy system, OECD plastic demand is stagnating at the same time as emerging market leaders are looking for alternative solutions to plastic,” it added.

“A further critical element that will dim the rosy petrochemical demand picture painted by incumbents is the effects of global policy action to tackle climate change.

“Carbon dioxide is produced at every stage of the plastic value chain – including being burnt, buried or recycled, not just extraction of oil and manufacturing.”;

Carbon Tracker said its analysis therefore finds that “plastic releases roughly twice as much CO2 as producing a tonne of oil”.

On the assumption that 350 million tonnes (Mt) of plastic demand with a total carbon footprint of about five tonnes of CO2 per tonne of plastic, that implies 1.75 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2, according to the report.

It notes that a continuation of current growth rates would see the carbon footprint of plastics double by the middle of the century to about 3.5Gt.

This is despite the Paris Agreement, an international climate pact aiming to limit the rise in global temperatures, implying that CO2 emissions — which stood at 33Gt from the energy sector in 2018 — will have to halve by 2030 and reach zero by the middle of the century.

Bond believes it is “simply delusional” for the plastics industry to imagine it can double its carbon emissions at the same time as the rest of the world is attempting to cut them to zero.