Rps Share Discussion Threads

[peaeff] 06/3/2007 08:47

Excellent figures and positive forcasts very much one for the future.

I didn't buy back in before results but I certainly shall do after Thursday when the AGK results come out. Bought them yesterday instead at 409p so got very nice lift there before close.

See you all soon.

Regards PF

[melody9999] 06/3/2007 08:35

momentous decision for me today - I've now stuck these in my 'tuck away' portfolio meaning I don't see the need to monitor as closely because they are a Really Pretty Solid outfit!

Good results, strong forecast and suggesting further acquisitions (which effectively means they will happen) all looks positive to me

When this correction completes, these will quickly attain new highs on forecast upgrades IMHO.

[bletherer] 06/3/2007 08:06

Early days, but all buys so far. At any rate looks like there's no hidden bad news I missed on my read-through, as the analysts are usually quite good at sniffing that out.

[bletherer] 06/3/2007 07:15

So - eps came in at 11.94, +33%, versus the most recently upwardly revised consensus estimate of 11.37. On a quick read through I see no "clouds", and they are talking about continued profit growth in 2007 and beyond, though they do not attempt to quantify at what levels (i.e. whether they can maintain the recent pace).

Makes very pleasant reading, so the response will depend purely on whether Mr. Market decides to be picky.

[dull gull] 05/3/2007 09:08

Sorry - Monday morning!

[dull gull] 05/3/2007 09:07

###"They have already announced rsults 'at upper end of expectations'"###

That was upgraded to "outperform expectations" in the February statement


###"many of those weak holders will have already exited the stock in its recent correction from 320p"###

Yes, I agree with that.

[melody9999] 04/3/2007 22:40

They have already announced rsults 'at upper end of expectations'. So unless they were extraordinarily good, you would normally expect some profit taking on results day. However...... many of those weak holders will have already exited the stock in its recent correction from 320p. So assuming results are up to expectations, I don't expect a further sell off on Tuesday.

[peaeff] 04/3/2007 22:25

Many thanks for your valid points you have provided me with much food for thought.

I shall certainly see what the market does tomorrow morning, up to and including US at 2.30, before making any kind of decision.

Good luck all for Tuesday.

Regards PF

[bletherer] 04/3/2007 12:31

The 2006-7 trendline support is currently at something like 265, and given the current market uncertainty and RPS's tendency for post-results weakness I think there is a good chance we will test it at some point in March. That could be a good point to enter or (in my case) add, assuming any decline is orderly. It would probably not be such a good idea if RPS is already printing 270 at 8.00 on Tuesday morning. I would certainly suggest waiting to see the price action on results day before taking the plunge. The results will almost certainly be good; the question is whether they will be good enough to discourage people from taking profits.

[dull gull] 04/3/2007 11:39

You forgot your tin hat, Peaeff, you should have just held and let the market do its thing. Come the lead up to the 2007 interims, this will all have been forgotten. I'm more interested in the results themselves than any short-term market reaction to them.

However, now you're currently out, you may want to consider bletherer's advice and wait for the results. I can see two likely scenarios in the short-term:

1/ There is more of a sell-off. This is of no concern to me, but any non-holder could use this to their advantage. Maybe buy in in a few weeks when it bottoms out and goes flat.
2/ The shares idle before resuming their upward track. If the results are good and the shares do not fall significantly on Tuesday or Wednesday then I'd start getting back in.

The scenario I do not see is a sharp rise on Tuesday morning. So, imho, the less-risky action is to wait and see what happens. Alternatively, if you don't like that, you could buy in light tomorrow and then top up as-and-when later. It's your money, of course.

[peaeff] 04/3/2007 10:51

Any views on how things will pan out in the current situation. I have to buy back in tomorrow, for Tuesdays results, but I fear with the Dow well down, Friday close, we could be in for yet another drop.

It seems sometimes as though these 'adjustments' are orchestrated to coincide with busy results periods.

[peaeff] 28/2/2007 08:43

Sold mine this morning to wait until markets settle.

[peaeff] 27/2/2007 14:33

typical of me 24 hours out again. What was I saying about eggs.

[bletherer] 27/2/2007 10:19

I am definitely waiting until post-results before doing any more buying. Apart from the likelihood that there will be profit-taking on RPS, today feels like it could be the start of a market correction. Emerging market crashes often have ripple effects and the -9% today on the Shanghai index which has been going completely crazy in the last few months might just be the start of something.

[melody9999] 27/2/2007 09:25

looking at add a few more myself anytime soon

[peaeff] 26/2/2007 18:44

Almost doubled my holding today with the funds + profits from BRW.

Don't really like having all eggs in one basket but this once I'll give it a try.

Regards PF

[reeshar] 25/2/2007 16:22

Interesting article in Sunday Times Money about potential correction. Some indicators flagging red and some green. As always we have to draw our own conclusions.



I believe the markets are good for another year at least, but this year could be like last. Fear of a sell off in late April (sell in May scenario) like last year could become self fulfilling.

[peaeff] 25/2/2007 09:52

DG

"Agree, there COULD indeed be at least a 10% fall"

I would be very disappointed and extremely surprised if this scenario came to pass, at least 'prior' to results.

PEG factor of .77 suggests that the share 'could' still be undervalued.

last 'chosen' published words of CEO suggest that they have 'outperformed
expectations' as opposed to the previous one of 'upper end of'.

Two aquisitions will soon add to profitability and in the case of the Canadian one, IMHO a very shrewd purchase especially if oil prices remain at the present level or above. (most likely)

The most likely way that this company 'could' lose 10% prior to results is from institutional selling, which seems unlikely as the present trend is to buy.

As I have said before, management seem to be on a roll at present and appear to me to be staying ahead of the game.

A very good set of figures, (expected) and a bullish outlook statement from the company could, IMO, set this on the road to 400p over the coming months.

I hope this hasn't tempted fate but I feel this is very much a company for the future.

As you say 'tin hats on' but I'm predicting further movement upwards in the coming week. Should that movement be of a 'very significant nature' then I may just start to waver around results time.

Regards PF

EDIT. just one note of caution would be a market correction, which is being touted more often recently.

[dull gull] 24/2/2007 19:26

The interims stated improved operating margins in all business segments.

Agree, there COULD indeed be at least a 10% fall, ...wouldn't be surprised if we lost 10% *before* results ... could equally be a rise further on the cards...we'll see it all unfold soon enough...Hard-hat on standby.

[bletherer] 24/2/2007 17:35

DG - your forecasting last year was a lot better than mine, as I've already acknowledged, but I still think there's good reason for caution at present. Even if RPS can keep the recent higher growth level up, the share price has risen 75% over the past year so there are now vastly higher expectations priced in which will be difficult to satisfy in the short-term. Even in years when there has not been such a spectacular run the share price has invariably fallen post-results, in 2004 and 2005 rather markedly. So even if the results comfortably beat expectations and the outlook remains very positive I would expect a fall in the post-results period of at least 10%. If there's anything like 2004, when they announced that margins would be affected in the short-term by investment in the business, then things will get ugly.

[reeshar] 24/2/2007 11:40

Thanks for all the comment guys. I don't hold a large number of these so not really worth skimming off a few before results. If there is a decent dip on profit taking I'll buy a few more - for next years ISA if I can hold out 2 to 3 weeks until the new tax year.

[peaeff] 23/2/2007 18:55

DG

Thanks for your view on things, Whichever way you look at it, it's one for the portfolio in the immediate to mid-term.

[dull gull] 23/2/2007 18:47

Forecast earnings? Who's doing the forecasting? Maybe the same people who got it spectacularly wrong the last time you quoted 'forecasts'. These analysts haven't really stopped to work it out. They just pull a historic figure out of the bag and then go to lunch. If they had actually stopped to fully analyse the 2005 results, they would not have forecast earnings growth of 15% for 2006. I called them wrong at the time and gave my reasons nearly a year ago (see other thread). I forecast this rise in the share price and also the company's upgrade to earnings.

Likewise it is lazy to quote old earnings figures of 10%-20%
Last year (2005) eps grew by 27% - mainly off the back off very strong Energy growth. This year, Energy almost certainly grew even faster: - based on interim results (profits +228% ) and subsequent company updates.
Obviously, as time goes on, Energy's huge growth has more effect on overall growth. (It may be the biggest sector within RPS in this or the next set of results.)

Anyway, looks like several institutions are accumulating.

Still bullish, but wary of short-term profit taking post-results. On a longer timescale - the easiest option is to hold, imho.

[bletherer] 23/2/2007 17:48

I have to say I think these are looking a little frothy at current levels. RPS is an excellently-run company with a great track record of annual growth in the 10-20% range, but nearly 25x forecast earnings with a 1% dividend yield looks rather expensive to me, and unless the results and outlook blow us all away I am anticipating some significant selling when they come out. That said, there was some more big buying today, so clearly there are some institutions out there who think results will be good enough to sustain the upward momentum. The canny move I reckon will be to sell a few just before results come out, though of course I was unable to wait till then and sold a tranche just above 300. Doh! At least the ones I've got left are now "free", so I'm intending to keep those as a core holding and add again if there are any significant dips in the future.