Rexam Share Discussion Threads

[deanforester] 29/7/2009 17:02

Has anyone noticed the date for entitlement to the rights?

Record Date for the Rights Issue 5.00pm on 23 July
Shares marked 'ex-rights' by the London Stock Exchange 8.00am on 30 July

[kiwi2007] 29/7/2009 14:52

If you bothered to read rather than just post you'd have seen:

kiwi2007 - 16 Jul'09 - 09:09 - 407 of 432 edit


Took my profit on the wedge I bought at 281p - bouncing off the 200 day at the moment

[pidgeon2] 29/7/2009 14:44

auction time

[kiwi2007] 29/7/2009 14:10

Thanks for the heads up Credemaus :o) I was going to post my thanks to Buywell2/Pigeon2 on helping me decide to sell on the 16th (I did post that I'd sold then). However, in truth it wasn't due to him - I've actually traded this a few times - buy on RSI hitting 20'ish and sell on it improving 10% or/and hitting the 200 day ma. It's worked well. Will it work again I wonder?

Anyway, Paul Checketts at Oriel Securities not too keen this morning.

"Rexam has come to the market a day early with a gloomy set of interims and is asking for £350m to see it through this immensely challenging period.

£350m 4 for 11 rights issue at 150p, a 38% discount to TERP. Officially it's to preserve investment grade status but reading between the lines the reason is that management can see the trends and fear the current debt position is too high risk.

Group revenues are down 6% organically and operating profit is 20% lower.

Plastics business performing the worst - organic profit contraction of 18% and is to
undergo and restructuring to reduce annual costs by £30m.

European bev cans also going backwards rapidly - volumes 10% lower with Russian (- 32%) and specialty can (-13%) demand collapsing.

Bev can performance in US and Europe (even ex Russia) is way behind the broader
market. This highlights the higher cyclicality of Rexam.

Interim dividend has gone and a final dividend of 9p is expected to be paid. We had been forecasting 21p for the year.

This is a business under great stress and the capital restructuring may prove to have been essential. TERP PE of 9.2x still struggles to reflect that. SELL.

[nspal] 29/7/2009 14:04

From the definitions section of the announcement [page 12 of 15]

"Qualifying Shareholders = holders of Shares on the register of members of the Company on the Record Date

Record Date = 5.00pm on 23 July 2009"

To me that says that the rights are only for those who held shares on 23rd July 2009. If I'm wrong pls tell me where I'm wrong. RIO issue was different to this so I am confused.

[quidzinn] 29/7/2009 12:12

XR tomorrow at 7.00 am

[nspal] 29/7/2009 11:54

Will Rexam shares bought today qualify for the rights? I read the full announcement and it says 30th July shares marked ex rights by LSE, but has 23rd July 5pm as record date for the rights issue.

[credemus] 29/7/2009 11:43

Did quite a bit of work for one of their outposts earlier this year, they seemed quite efficient but what do I know.

Kiwi2007 your friend across the way is giving you grief!

[wad collector] 29/7/2009 10:46

Given their market share of a "necessity", I don't think this is a long term gamble , but certainly a short term one.The thought of seeing £6 again seems very distant.

[madoff with cash] 29/7/2009 10:21

the shares not worth buying below 180p.

[krowelet] 29/7/2009 09:52

Break even on rights take up based on holding bought @ £3 is £2.60 imo.

[royaloak] 29/7/2009 09:32

Spot on Pigeon, I did look before but the price was holding up, however shorted on Monday after announcement.

RSW looks a good candidate, not the same sort of debt situation, but earnings situation looks dire.

[credemus] 29/7/2009 09:31

No me neither. There will be a decent entry point at some time but it's difficult to know where.

[pidgeon2] 29/7/2009 09:23

Pidgeon2 - 26 May'09 - 16:34 - 388 of 428 edit


seems like a lot of wishful thinking in the price - the shares up some 50% since the results - and no news yet to justify that

grahamburn - 26 May'09 - 16:36 - 389 of 428


Pidgeon 2.

A fair number of analyst and other recommendations: and don't forget the yield is not only high, but relatively secure. In today's environment all this makes for a steady increase in the share price.

Pidgeon2 - 26 May'09 - 16:48 - 390 of 428 edit


dont count on it. if the future numbers are anything like the ones in march the dividend here is far from secure. having said that, i have no idea what the future holds

[pidgeon2] 29/7/2009 08:48

EUR 6.75% 2067
The bond issue is for EUR 750m with annual
coupon payment on 29 June. The bond ranks as
junior subordinated debt and has a fixed-rate
coupon of 6.75% until 2017 whereupon the
bond pays 3 month Eurobor + 290 bp. The bond
has a change of control clause of 500 bp and a
make whole of 25 bp exercisable after June
2017. Rexam is entitled to defer coupon
payment on the EUR 6.75% 2067 for up to five
years provided the company does not pay
dividend or make new issues. Otherwise the
deferred coupon payments fall due for payment

[pidgeon2] 29/7/2009 08:47

van de valle possibly owns more in rexam bonds than shares. strong reason to protect the credit rating, especially since the bonds are deeply subordinated



13. Price per share or value of transaction

Euro618,100.43



14. Date and place of transaction

LONDON 1 MAY 2008


15. Total holding following notification and total percentage holding following
notification (any treasury shares should not be taken into account when
calculating percentage)

56,173 ORDINARY SHARES

701,000 UNITS REXAM 6.75% CAPITAL SECURITIES DUE 2067

[kiwi2007] 29/7/2009 07:46

Four for eleven @ 150p
Shares in issue now 875M
Forecast £309 pre tax 2009 (analysts)
FY Divi 8p
Future Divi to be covered 2 to 2.5 times

The main reason to short is now out of the way.
Will they make forecast earnings though? Toss a coin perhaps?

"
Since the Interim Management Statement in May it has become increasingly clear that the effect of the recession on Rexam's trading will be deeper and more prolonged than previously thought with cyclical, more premium parts of the business disproportionately impacted by the downturn. Destocking has given way to reduced underlying customer demand reducing the Group's ability to generate cash and pay down debt.
"

Not for me at the moment. Management's recent performnace seems pretty poor.

[18bt] 29/7/2009 07:21

Interim and Rights statement looks pretty awful together with cancellation of dividend and new dividend policy. Can see the shares sinking a lot further on opening. If what they are saying is true, there are going to be a lot of other industrials similarly affected and the green shoots have just withered.

[pidgeon2] 29/7/2009 00:42

wad collector - 27 Jul'09 - 23:52 - 417 of 423

Half-Year results to be announced on 30 July will at least meet market expectations.



dont forget when the prelims came out " Rexam Fiscal Year Pretax +34%" looked good on the face of it

[pidgeon2] 28/7/2009 17:24

I go for a 1 for 1 at 120p

[fillipe] 28/7/2009 16:16

Took the plunge a little earlier @ 273.9p. Based on what's been said in the recent press about likely pre-tax profits and my own guess at the divi, I calc'd a pre-rights share price of 261.5p, but felt it might not get there.

I'll have to see whether or not.....

f

[kiwi2007] 28/7/2009 14:22

Does now start to look like they overpaid for O-I and Rostar a couple of years ago.
Wouldn't know where to look for an entry price at the moment as they're really only a few pence cheaper than a month ago before the bad news hit the market.

Cynically perhaps, I wouldn't be surprised to find that GS were puffing them up as part of a positive price positioning, pre rights.

[pidgeon2] 28/7/2009 14:20

like trying to catch a falling knife. beware