Renewable Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 14:56

I didn't make anything up on PHE. That is a very exciting company, read the Company RNS. How many Company's do you know supported by Billionaire investors ?

[29howard] 30/9/2013 14:54

thiopia

Just fresh in the memory was your rubbish on PHE

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 14:49

I think the Directors who paid 24-63p in last few years are buying today.

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 14:48

29 howard

Do the figures yourself.

81 MW of Welsh wind farm assets could be worth £200m that is based on what Greencoat paid on Friday for UK wind farm in an RNS

£70m for 26 MW

[makday] 30/9/2013 14:46

Blimey the shares should be rerated at this rate to over 25p!

[29howard] 30/9/2013 14:46

lol

So you made that up lol lol lol

"could be worth"

Guess you post on topinfo thread ?

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 14:46

Even the bears think this could multibag


John of Groats 28 Sep'13 - 13:46 - 1745 of 1767 1 0

thiopia,

You cannot equate the £2.627m/MW paid by UKW for a fully operational wind farms in East Anglia with the price for an unconstructed wind farm in mid Wales once planning permission has been granted. You would need to subtract the cost of construction and a margin for profit/risk from the above figure. On the other hand, REH have quoted a load factor of 37% for MYG compared with an average load factor of 35.5% for the East Anglian wind farms.

I have not yet found an up-to-date estimate of construction costs in the UK but Windustry, a US non-profit organisation, gives an installed cost of between $3m and $4m for a 2MW turbine in 2012.
hxxp://www.windustry.org/resources/how-much-do-wind-turbines-cost

At $1.6/£, that is an installed cost of between £0.9375m/MW and £1.25m/MW. As most things seem to cost more in the UK than in the US (red tape may have someting to do with it), let's take £1.5m/MW as the installed cost. If we add, say, 33% for risk, cost of capital over a two-year project and a reasonable margin should the purchaser sell on completion, the total comes to £2m/MW. Since MYG enjoys a slightly better load factor than the East Anglia example, let's assume the value of MYG on completion could be £2.75m/MW, leaving up to £0.75m/MW for acquiring MYG from REH. On that basis, the figure of £0.5m/MW suggested by REH seems a little conservative but REH could be viewed as a "distressed seller" so may not be in a good position to demand top price.

For the moment, I am happy to take £0.5m/MW as a reasonable estimate. From this, REH will have to pay £0.305m/MW to Utilico and the original MYG shareholders (see my post #1711), leaving REH with just £0.195m/MW - a total of £15.775m, not £200m.

John

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 14:45

REH

Assets

CWE shares $6.5m
Polish wind farm £4m
Welsh Wind Farm could be worth £200m !

[makday] 30/9/2013 14:43

this is going mental...what is it worth?????

[29howard] 30/9/2013 14:42

Copy where is says that please ?

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 14:40

I was saying on Friday this was mad.

£200m+ of assets for just £2m

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 14:39

moreforus

REH Directors have paid between 24-63p in previous years

They may be buying today now results out ?

[29howard] 30/9/2013 14:38

This is 100% the sector to play with the punters going nuts for this now.

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 14:38

Assets

CWE shares worth $6.5m
Polish wind farm held for sale at £4m in accounts
Welsh wind farm 81MW could be worth £200m (even the bears here are saying over £15m)

So total assets £23m versus REH cap at £2m

[29howard] 30/9/2013 14:29

Loan settlement out out till dec 2014, that must be classed as good news
so bought in small all the mm would let me have.

[29howard] 30/9/2013 14:18

Damn is it good new price is up, was going to buy in, time for a quick read

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 14:13

Looks like good news ?

Extending debt facility because they must be comfortable with security on loan but as shareholders they know the upside on successful delivery of Welsh and Polish wind farms ?

[hedgehog 100] 30/9/2013 11:25

Thiopia,

The rule is that AIM companies have three months from the end of their half year to release their interim results.

REH usually releases its interims before market opening, but not always -

28/09/2012 07:01 UKREG Renewable Energy Holdings plc Interim Results
30/09/2011 07:00 UKREG Interim Results
30/09/2010 07:00 UKREG Interim Results
30/09/2009 07:01 UKREG Interim Results
03/09/2008 07:00 UKREG Interim Results
24/09/2007 08:03 UKREG Interim Results


And many of REH's other announcements have been made during market hours.


So I would expect something by the end of today.

[thiopia] 30/9/2013 10:34

Nothing so far Hedgehog ?

[hedgehog 100] 29/9/2013 20:35

Just a reminder that that REH's interim results for the half year to 30th. June are due tomorrow.

[john of groats] 29/9/2013 17:07

Ed,

You are confusing Voluntary Escrow with Escrow.

When assets are put in Escrow, it is usually so the owner can use them as security in some transaction with a second party. The assets are transferred to a third party so that the owner cannot get control of them until some mutually agreed conditions are met.

With Voluntary Escrow, the assets remain in control of the owner. In the case of REH's holding of CWE shares, there is an agreement between REH and CWE that REH will continue to hold them for the benefit of its own shareholders. This agreement arose out of REH's previous attempt to sell CWE shares, causing considerable uncertainty in the market, depressing the share price To end the uncertainty, CWE agreed to assist in finding a buyer provided that REH put the rest of the shares in Voluntary Escrow.

The agreement is between REH and CWE, not between REH and its shareholders who are merely incidental beneficiaries. As such, the terms can be changed at any time by mutual agreement of REH and CWE. Until then, ASX will not allow REH to transfer ownership of the shares. If CWE agreed to the sale of more shares from REH's holding, ASX would not block it. I can imagine circumstances where CWE would happily assent to the sale. Say an investor with a much more secure future than REH's wanted to acquire a considerable shareholding in CWE without having to pay a ridiculous premium and REH has failed to sell Kobylany and is desperate for cash. Under those circumstances it would be in the interests of both CWE and REH to agree a sale.

The only recourse for REH shareholders would be to call an Extraordinary General Meeting to vote down the sale. Almost certainly, the Board would resign and the shareholders would need to vote in a new Board. With REH being based in the Isle of Man, there may not be many prepared to take on that task.

I am not saying this will happen or is likely to happen, but pointing out that Voluntary Escrow does not stop it happening.

John

[thiopia] 29/9/2013 16:02

Post added on CWE thread

[john of groats] 29/9/2013 11:04

Dealing in CWE shares is controlled by the Australian Exchange (ASX). It's Guidance Note 11 deals with Voluntary Escrow in Paragraphs 33 to 36.


My reading of this is that REH's holding can be released from Voluntary Escrow with the agreement of CWE or on expiry of the period of Voluntary Escrow. I am not aware that a period was defined in the original agreement but I would expect CWE to prefer an orderly transfer of its shares rather than they fall into the hands of an administrator. Remember, the Voluntary Escrow agreement was between REH and CWE, not between REH and its own shareholders.

John


Voluntary escrow

33. Sometimes voluntary restriction agreements are entered into by security holders. ASX's decision on restrictions will not be influenced by the existence or form of these agreements.

34. Listing rule 8.10.1(i) permits holding locks to be applied to holdings of securities the subject of voluntary escrow and refusal to register any paper-based transfer of securities that are subject to voluntary escrow, where the holder of the securities has consented to this.

Disclosure in relation to restricted securities and securities subject to voluntary escrow

35. ASX considers that disclosure in relation to escrow arrangements and release from escrow provides valuable additional information to the market and promotes transparency. ASX requires the following in relation to both ASX restricted securities and securities subject to voluntary escrow.

• Pre-quotation disclosure of the number of securities subject to escrow and the restriction period applied to those securities.

• Under listing rule 3.10A, disclosure of any forthcoming release of securities from escrow,
not less than ten business days before those securities are released from escrow. In the case of voluntary escrow, the disclosure must be made whether the release is by the expiry of the agreed restriction period, or consent of the parties to early release from voluntary escrow.

• Under listing rule 4.10.14, disclosure in the annual report of details of securities subject to escrow.

36. Listed entities must ensure that arrangements are in place to comply with the requirements of the rules. In the case of voluntary escrow arrangements, this includes making arrangements with holders of securities to enable the entity to make disclosure in compliance with listing rule 3.10A. Listed entities with escrow arrangements should also diarise the need to take action at least 10 business days before any date of release.

[newbytothis] 28/9/2013 23:05

Thanks guys for a better understanding to the possible value here and to DSTM for requesting fingers for a chart rundown ... Not that he himself needed to :-)