Renaissance Us Growth Invst Share Discussion Threads

[praipus] 10/12/2014 10:21

Thank you.

I will try but suspect I wont have the inclination to do so if it is worth nothing.

[envirovision] 10/12/2014 08:32

Good luck let me know what the software outfit was worth in the end please.

[praipus] 10/12/2014 08:28

TIDMRUG

RENN UNIVERSAL GROWTH INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

The Net Asset Value of the ordinary 25p shares of the Company at 05 December 2014
was as follows:

Including current period revenue 300.76 pence (US468.96c) (includes revenue
reserve losses up to and including 05 December 2014)

Excluding current period revenue 305.77 pence (US476.77c) (includes revenue
reserve losses up to and including the year ended 31 March 2014)

The exchange rate at which this was calculated was GBP=US$1.55925

As at 05 December 2014, the Company held net cash of GBP2.312m.

The Net Asset Value calculation includes the time value of unlisted warrants in
respect of the portfolio valuation. The Company has adopted the Black Scholes
methodology and will calculate the time value (in US Dollars) of unlisted
warrants every quarter. The warrants included in the portfolio for the weekly
NAV calculations will be calculated by valuing the intrinsic value of the
warrants and adding the time value as at the most recently calculated
quarterly valuation.

Intrinsic value of unlisted warrants as at 05 December 2014 $0

Sterling equivalent at exchange rate above: GBP0

Time value of unlisted warrants as at 30 September 2014: (adjusted for warrants
subsequently acquired, exercised, expired or disposed) $0

Sterling equivalent at exchange rate above: GBP0

Share price as at 05 December 2014 223.00p

Discount: (25.85%)


09 December 2014

[rjmahan] 05/12/2014 11:50

Brief post on RUG - hxxp://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2014/12/05/renn-universal-growth-delisting-act-today/

Still time to get in!

[skyship] 28/11/2014 09:32

RJM - that's what makes a Market! Too may known unknowns for me...

[rjmahan] 28/11/2014 00:35

Skyship / Praipus this is debatable - listed holdings ex anchor free are about £1.68 a share - OK I havent allowed for iliquidity of bigger holdings but also have not taken into account value of a controling stake in these various businesses.

So Anchor free only needs to be worth half what it is listed at in the accounts for you to get your money back.

It must be at least that or whats the point in the valuation - Goldman paid what its listed at a couple of years ago and in statements says lower end of independent valuer's range. Half is more than achievable.

So if I invest now I almost certainly get my money back and I buy a good probability of a gain from 0% to 29% (at book) to beyond. (I havent adjusted for latest RNS but figures are basically sound).

Tech market is relatively hot right now so I would hope buyers would be out there - it wouldnt be me as it isnt the sort of thing I am into but as a short term punt I am prepared to take a chance on this.

I am not sure this is value investing at its most pure but there is logic here...

[skyship] 27/11/2014 15:08

Top five holdings

AnchorFree, Inc. (Private): 45.0% of net assets, Primary Industry Group:
Internet Software & Services

AnchorFree is the world's leading advertising and subscription supported
virtual private network.
========================

P - To buy here you've got to be very sure you have a good handle as to whether AF is worth the valuation. VPNs seem to be under attack by Governments talking of internet terrorism concerns; and very little barrier to entry.

[praipus] 27/11/2014 13:32

What % of the portfolio is the Anchorfree holding?

[envirovision] 25/11/2014 13:16

Interesting and to answer your question I dont know enough about Armstrongs holding, but if they are technology lead then yes as they may be more knowledgeable about AnchorFree's present valuation.

Not a good sign that they are not sticking around till the end regardless.

I dont hold btw as I could not find any argument to support anchorfree's valuation from 2012.

[praipus] 25/11/2014 13:11

Armstrong trying to wriggle out?


A sign us PI's should do the same?

[envirovision] 20/11/2014 12:45

Problem with AnchorFree from what I can tell is they are one of a number of providers offering this service. Does not appear to be much of a barrier to entry either.

[hoveite] 19/11/2014 18:55

hxxp://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=hotspotshield.android.vpn&hl=en

Shows 10-50M android downloads.

I don't have an IOS device and think I can't check the Apple store without one - but if you have one maybe you can check what it says there.

[envirovision] 19/11/2014 17:40

Interesting, buying here is basically taking a punt that AnchorFree is worth what it was when Goldman Sachs invested.

Can see this report 11 months ago claiming 200M downloads hxxp://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140113005354/en/Privacy-Takes-Center-Stage-2014-AnchorFree%E2%80%99s-Hotspot#.VGzSHPmsVLA

this one 6 weeks ago claiming 250M
hxxps://www.startupers.com/jobs/anchorfree-inc/4731-viral-user-acquisition-specialist-mobile-growth

whilst this job advert 6 bweeks agao claims 300M
hxxps://www.linkedin.com/jobs2/view/24592077

Clearly its growing, how fast is up for debate, they are changing their business model to subscription only and doing away with the free model.

[skyship] 19/11/2014 16:43

Enviro - NJG's holding is certainly a positive; but even he has got it wrong in the past.

It may be OK but I read the late Summer fall as concerns about AnchorFree; and with no way of knowing whether that valuation is secure, decided to leave well alone - come the Autumn the fall turned into a bit of a rout - hence my Post No.46 above...

The AnchorFree boss was certainly less than impressive when interviewed! This may have been the one:

[envirovision] 19/11/2014 16:26

100% shareholder means they own it and all its liabilities :)

[praipus] 19/11/2014 15:58

Thanks I see what you mean government backing is good or aren't they just a shareholder?

[envirovision] 19/11/2014 15:41

There are no guarantees in investing Praipus, just a range of sureties of risks.

I suppose BBM is fairly good odds at the moment given when I purchased since its technically underwritten by HMRC 100% at present.

[praipus] 19/11/2014 15:15

envirovision just curious, what investments do you have that "guarantee" you your original investment back?

[envirovision] 19/11/2014 14:58

coolen, just seen your post, im not in...yet.

Still deliberating really, there are risks and a chance of not getting back your original investment to boot.

Decisions, decisions!

[envirovision] 19/11/2014 13:38

ok so I see Greenwood is there with 4.5% as well and Ruffer with over 11%.

So all boils down to Anchorfree, it growing looks to me, staff seem ok on glassdoor. Would think they could ipo if they had too, if that's on the cards in next few years selling the stake on to interim investors should be childs play. Management expect to do this fairly quickly they seem confident of the time frame.

Have you any additional Anchorfree thoughts Praipus?

[envirovision] 19/11/2014 13:11

Ahh lol, I see :)

May I ask Praipus who are the major shareholders?

I cant seem to find a list. I note William Vandefelt seems to have a lot though.

I suppose an equally important question is how do you feel about Ancorfree inc. since the lions share depends on what they can get for that?

[coolen] 19/11/2014 12:58

Agreed, Enviro, and I've followed you in. I suppose the risk is RUG being left with some unsaleables towards the end.

Conversely, it would not be the first time that a "liquidation" was reversed if an approach was received as the cash started to flow in.

[praipus] 18/11/2014 15:40

Sorry talking to myself really....I would buy a lot more now if I had more capital .

[envirovision] 18/11/2014 12:59

This looks good value, what am I missing ?

What did you mean Praipus....oh for more capital ?