Raven Property Share Discussion Threads

[gfrae] 23/4/2021 10:14

Thanks flyfisher and erstwhile for clarifying, I read it too quickly.
I find it fairly extraordinary that management are being allowed to buy 50,000,000 shares and 16 million Preference shares using shareholders money.
How on earth did Schroders, Quilters and the other large shareholders approve it ? (to answer my own question.......they got some too, but at least they used their own money !).
I find it hard to believe that at such a large discount to NAV, in the hottest sector of the property market in a country that is in a very exciting stage of development the shares could surely have been placed easily ?
I tried to get some shares in the placing and was told it was impossible, though I may be getting some Prefs.
To look on the brighter side, at least this overhang is gone and we are going to benefit from some of the buy back.

[flyfisher] 22/4/2021 19:14

gfrae,

Net assets at yr end £234m
Cost of 9.85m buy in 2.1m
Net assets post deal 231.9m
Rouble weakness has reduced net assets by 7.5% to 214.5
post deal ord share capital 581.5m
NAV post deal 36.9p, with j/v marked at cost

If you wish to mark the j/v at market share price then a gain of £7.4m or 1.3p nav is added.

The deal to buy in from woodford and invesco at 36p and 40p does not look too clever now, but it does not stop the directors taking a 6m share bonus for the 2019 performance scheme.

No wonder there was such a heavy vote against directors remuneration.

[gfrae] 22/4/2021 10:46

flyfisher, the recent Edison note has the post Invesco/Woodford buyback NAV, but not the NAV post the proposed buyback of Invescos 29% which is subject to approval at the AGM.
From my quick reading of the Raven document on the proposed buyback, the company has a call over all the shares in the j/v at cost price (after any loans or costs repaid), therefore there should be a significant effective increase in NAV should or when the company buys back the shares from the j/v and cancels them.

[flyfisher] 22/4/2021 10:15

gfrae, The recent edison note has the post deal nav, it also has a sensitivity analysis to currency movements. You will note that the rouble has weakened since the edison note.

[zangdook] 22/4/2021 09:59

I suppose it depends if the company's half of the JV will be valued at market price of its shareholdings or at their NAV.
As far as I can make out the plan is to spend five years using the dividends to pay off the loan and then dissolve the JV and distribute the shares? At which point the company's half will be cancelled or what?

[gfrae] 22/4/2021 08:45

The buy back and the j/v will almost certainly significantly increase NAV...20% odd of the company is being bought back ex the amount being placed at almost half NAV.
I am not even going to attempt to work it out.
There will also be a boost from the removal of the overhang though offset by possible flipping by hedgefunds.

[gfrae] 16/4/2021 16:34

flyfisher are you sure about that ? As far as I am aware the placing is subject to board approval and has as yet not actually taken place. So it would be very surprising.

[irish_neris] 27/3/2021 11:14

Goldman recommending Russian stocks

[flyfisher] 26/3/2021 17:03

No, the figures are adjusted for that.

[gfrae] 23/3/2021 14:57

When the Invesco sale has been partially bought back, assuming that it is approved, I assume that NAV will increase ?

[flyfisher] 23/3/2021 10:42

Current pro forma NAV looks to be 37p after ruble weakness, currently 104.5/£.

[gfrae] 18/3/2021 09:30

Assuming that the buy back/placing goes ahead as planned; what affect if any will this have on NAV all other things being equal ? Anyone know ?

[edmonda] 16/3/2021 09:04

After good results yesterday, updated research on Raven Property Group just published by Equity Development.
With the Russian economy recovering and strong warehouse demand from supermarkets and e commerce groups, a 29% discount to NAV for Ordinary shares looks excessive.

Read note here, free access:

[igbertsponk] 15/3/2021 14:20

The Directors wouldn't have put their hands so deeply into their wallets for the Prefs if they hadn't been pretty sure of the future.

[montyhedge] 15/3/2021 14:10

Bullish forward looking statement.

[montyhedge] 15/3/2021 11:44

Better than I expected.

[my retirement fund] 15/3/2021 11:33

Should expect NAV to appreciate with inflation and of course it only takes currency to strengthen then double filip.

[gfrae] 15/3/2021 08:51

Solid figures, very high occupancy of 94% , with 99% collection of rent, but exchange rate affects figures reducing NAV to 40p. Commentary on Russia is positive though foresees inflationary pressure on new builds of at least 15%, which should protect the value of their buildings, Russian interest rates have been falling. Rouble share of debt is increasing vs Euro.
Appear well positioned for the future .

[igbertsponk] 02/3/2021 17:00

Moving on up nicely.

[gfrae] 12/2/2021 16:07

It is not compulsory in Russia, like here the Russians think imported stuff is better.
More people in Argentina have had the Sputnik V vaccine than have had it in Russia.

[zangdook] 12/2/2021 12:00

They've vaccinated 2.2m people, according to Bloomberg.

As for Vlad, he's not in the qualifying age group:

“I am a fairly law-abiding person,” said Putin, 68, when asked if he had been inoculated against COVID-19. “I listen to the recommendations of our specialists. So I haven’t had the shot yet. But I will absolutely do it as soon as that becomes possible.”

[igbertsponk] 12/2/2021 11:37

Not sure - their vaccine seems good but they've hardly vaccinated anyone yet. Even Putin hasn't taken it.
oh, and they're good at making posions too!

[gfrae] 12/2/2021 11:34

Sputnik V with 92% efficacy according to The Lancet is probably about to be authorised by the EU, already being rolled out in Hungary. Is there more to Russia than oil and vodka ?